Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
650 FXUS62 KMFL 041118 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 718 AM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 223 AM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025 Few changes in the synoptic pattern this morning as upper level troughing remains in place across the Eastern United States and a frontal boundary lingers over the Florida Keys. This setup will continue to influence low-level flow patterns across South Florida, with generally westerly/southwesterly winds prevailing and continued moisture advection along the atmospheric column. In fact, ACARS sounding data across the area early this morning depict a well- moistened environment, with PWATs hovering in the 2.2-2.4 inch range, well above the 90th percentile for this time of year. This will help support plentiful showers and thunderstorms today, especially across the southernmost portions of the peninsula (south of Alligator Alley). Convective activity today is forecast to start a little earlier in the day as an upper level shortwave drops along the base of the upper level trough and the surface front gradually retrogrades over the peninsula. However, high-res models have been a bit inconsistent over the past few hours regarding timing and coverage for rainfall activity, with some of the latest runs delaying from an early morning to a late morning start, focused mainly south of Tamiami Trail. Despite some of these uncertainties, confidence remains medium to high regarding the prolific nature of the activity forecast for today. Most guidance continues to suggest rainfall totals of 1-2 inches will be commonplace, with a 1 in 10 chance of higher amounts of 4 inches in isolated spots. While most of this rain is forecast to fall over rural and sparsely inhabited areas, any activity that falls over urbanized centers could pose a threat for localized flooding, especially if it falls too quickly, or over areas that have received several inches of rain over the past few days. A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) of Excessive Rainfall remains in effect today. Similar conditions are forecast for Friday as the boundary lingers over the area, with slightly higher uncertainty regarding timing and overall coverage. Slightly lower temperatures forecast for today given greater cloud coverage and convective activity. Highs will top out in the upper 80s and low 90s, while overnight lows will stay in the low to mid 70s across the whole area. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 223 AM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025 By Saturday, the upper level trough is forecast to begin lifting northward while the surface front gradually weakens over our area. Nevertheless, with continued southerly flow and moisture influx over the area, conditions will remain generally unsettled through the weekend, with 60-70% for showers and storms each day. The upper level trough then looks to build back across the eastern US next week, and models show another frontal boundary potentially dropping along SE CONUS and north/central Florida. This will act to keep conditions wet and unsettled next week. High temperatures through the extended period will generally range from the low to mid 90s, with overnight lows in the low-mid 70s across the interior and up to the upper 70s along the coasts. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 714 AM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025 Light wind flow today will result in a low confidence forecast with the sea-breeze and thunderstorm development creating variable winds throughout the day. Have light westerly winds this morning becoming variable this afternoon with thunderstorms expected to develop. Thunderstorms may also result in brief flight restrictions. && .MARINE... Issued at 223 AM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025 A stationary frontal boundary remains stalled out across South Florida and the Florida Keys through the end of the week. As a result, westerly/southwesterly winds will prevail, with elevated chanced for several rounds of showers/thunderstorms across all local waters. Seas are expected at 2-4 feet, except in and around storms where gusty winds and rough seas could be possible. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 88 77 88 77 / 80 70 80 40 West Kendall 88 76 88 76 / 80 60 80 40 Opa-Locka 89 76 89 77 / 80 60 80 40 Homestead 87 76 88 76 / 80 70 80 50 Fort Lauderdale 88 76 88 77 / 80 60 80 40 N Ft Lauderdale 89 77 89 77 / 80 60 80 40 Pembroke Pines 90 76 91 77 / 80 60 80 40 West Palm Beach 89 76 89 76 / 80 60 70 40 Boca Raton 90 75 90 75 / 80 60 70 40 Naples 90 78 90 78 / 80 60 60 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ATV LONG TERM....ATV AVIATION...CMF