083
FXUS62 KMFL 081922
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
222 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 1049 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

Pleasant and warm weather is expected across South Florida to end
the work week and start the weekend thanks to mid-level ridging
hanging over the region. The ridge will usher in a generally dry
and warm airmass (12Z sounding PWAT 1.11"). However, with enough
low-level moisture brought in by the easterly flow, the atmosphere will
continue to support isolated showers over the Atlantic waters and
East Coast metro. Little to no accumulation has been recorded as
the light showers make landfall in Palm Beach County thus far
today. Rinse and repeat tomorrow...most of the area will see dry
conditions through Saturday with occasional sprinkles/showers and
under mostly sunny skies.

High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s each day, with
heat indices in the low 90s. Tonight`s lows will range from the
low 70s over the interior and Gulf Coast, with mid 70s across the
East Coast metro.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 218 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

The long term period will start out focusing on a mid-level
shortwave and associated surface low pressure starting to approach
South Florida from over the Bahamas. Significant moisture
advection will take place on Sunday associated with this feature,
with PWAT values rising from ~1.3" Sunday morning to over 2" by
late in the evening. This will lead to increasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms throughout the day and into Sunday
night. Breezy easterly winds can also be expected across the area.
The mid-level shortwave will stall out over the area and fall
apart early next week as it sits between a ridge over the Gulf and
another ridge over the eastern Caribbean. This will keep chances
for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast on Monday and
Tuesday. Temperatures throughout this time will be warm, with
highs in the mid to upper 80s, and overnight lows in the 70s.

By mid-week, longwave troughing will set up across the eastern US,
potentially sending a cold front across the FL peninsula,
ushering in a drier and slightly cooler airmass through the end of
the week. Rain chances will be near zero, with temperatures
returning to around normal with highs in the low 80s and overnight
lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1049 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

VFR conditions at all sites through the TAF period. Brief MVFR
cannot be ruled with an isolated passing shower with low CIGS, but
not enough confidence to include. E/ENE winds prevail with
sustained 10-13KT and occasional gusts to 20KT this afternoon.
Mostly dry conditions continue with light and variable winds
overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1049 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

Moderate east-southeast winds will persist across the local waters
through the start of the weekend. Conditions will improve from
recent days, but will remain cautionary to small craft through
Saturday. Seas over the Atlantic waters will range from 3 to 5 ft
with 1 to 3 ft seas over the Gulf waters today. The winds will
will strengthen over the Atlantic late Saturday with seas
returning to 5 to 7 ft to close out the weekend.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1049 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

A high risk for rip currents continues across all the Atlantic beaches.
The high risk will continue through the weekend into early next week
as onshore flow persists.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            74  84  75  84 /  20  20  10  30
West Kendall     72  86  73  85 /  10  10  10  30
Opa-Locka        74  86  75  84 /  20  20  10  30
Homestead        74  84  75  84 /  10  10  10  30
Fort Lauderdale  74  83  75  83 /  20  20  10  20
N Ft Lauderdale  74  84  75  84 /  20  20  10  20
Pembroke Pines   74  86  75  86 /  20  20  10  30
West Palm Beach  74  84  75  84 /  20  20  10  20
Boca Raton       74  85  75  85 /  20  20  10  20
Naples           72  87  72  87 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM....Culver
AVIATION...JS