Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
069 FXUS62 KMFL 070543 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 143 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 140 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026 - Dangerous rip currents are forecast to continue at all east coast beaches through this evening. - Heat indices expected to rise into the lower 100s across southwestern Florida today. - Increasing confidence in a return to more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity early to middle of this week as deep moisture returns to the area. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 140 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026 The upper-level ridging pattern across the Southeastern U.S. will be the primary influence on South Florida weather for today and into the early part of this week. A stout mid-level trough will attempt to break down the ridge for the latter half of Monday and in the days to follow, but this is not expected to be accomplished by the end of this short term period. Under this ridge pattern, the low level wind pattern will be out of a predominantly easterly direction, which will result in an anchored Gulf breeze which will be the primary lifting mechanism in this regime. As a result, the highest PoPs will be located in this Gulf coast region at 50-60% today and tomorrow as some extra moisture works back into the area despite the ridge pattern being maintained. This deeper moisture could allow for a few additional showers and thunderstorms to develop regardless of the local high pressure pattern since the Gulf breeze will provide enough lift for some shallower showers and perhaps isolated storms. There are not any major impacts expected from any convective activity today or on Monday. High temperatures will range from the upper 80s to low 90s for most areas today and tomorrow, but some interior locations may reach the mid 90s. Maximum heat index values will rise to the upper 90s in Southeast Florida and 100-105F in Southwest Florida, but will remain below advisory levels. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 140 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026 A mid-level trough in the central U.S. will cause the mid-level ridge over the eastern and southeastern U.S. to break down by mid- week, which in response will allow some positive vorticity impulses to advect into South Florida for the mid-week period. Additionally, much deeper moisture will return and support the development of increased showers and thunderstorms for the mid- week period. Surface high pressure over the western Atlantic and Mid-Atlantic region will attempt to suppress vertical ascent, but given these positive vorticity impulses and deep moisture (PWATs 1.8-2+ inches) this will be enough to produce scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms across South Florida during this time frame and likely into late week as well. By the end of the week and into next weekend, model guidance begins to diverge, which creates much uncertainty in the forecast heading towards the end of the period. The GFS ensemble suite highlights the potential for an upper level low to form in the Caribbean and strengthen as it propagates northwards across the Florida Peninsula. Conversely, the ECMWF suite has a low forming over the Yucatan Peninsula likely associated with the Central American Gyre (CAG) and gets blocked from advecting northwards. Regardless of the exact solution for this time frame, the one thing that is clear is that abundant moisture will be in place and enough energy exists from daily mesoscale processes and other synoptic influences that can spark widespread showers and thunderstorms each day. As a result, PoPs rise to 70-80% or higher for Thursday onwards into next weekend. High temperatures each day in the long term period are expected in the upper 80s to low 90s, with temperatures likely not exceeding the upper 80s for several days towards the end of the period as widespread rain and cloud cover diminishes how hot it can get. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 110 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026 VFR is expected to prevail for the period. Easterly winds around 10-12 kts will be maintained through today with gusts up to around 20 kts. VCSH early this morning will diminish for east coast terminals after daybreak and shift towards KAPF for the second half of the day. A westerly wind shift is expected at KAPF after 18Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 140 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026 A moderate easterly wind flow will prevail across the local waters today and through early this week, with winds becoming westerly to west-southwest in the afternoon for the nearshore Gulf waters as the Gulf breeze develops. Shower and thunderstorm activity will be more limited again today, but this coverage is expected to increase as the week progresses. Seas are expected at 2-3 feet or less today across the Atlantic waters and 1-2 feet or less for the Gulf waters. && .BEACHES... Issued at 140 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026 A high risk for rip currents continues across the Atlantic beaches through this afternoon. This risk will begin to decrease this evening and into early this week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 88 77 90 77 / 10 10 30 20 West Kendall 90 75 91 75 / 10 10 40 20 Opa-Locka 90 77 91 77 / 10 10 30 20 Homestead 89 77 90 77 / 10 10 30 20 Fort Lauderdale 87 78 89 78 / 10 10 20 20 N Ft Lauderdale 87 77 88 78 / 10 10 30 20 Pembroke Pines 91 78 92 78 / 10 10 30 20 West Palm Beach 88 78 89 78 / 10 10 20 20 Boca Raton 87 79 89 79 / 10 10 20 20 Naples 92 76 91 76 / 20 30 30 40 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Redman LONG TERM....Redman AVIATION...Redman