758
FXUS62 KMFL 040539
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
139 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 134 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

The broad mid level low that has been parked over the eastern Gulf
will slowly start to move northeastward throughout the day and even
more so tonight. As it crawls northeastward, it will also begin to
unravel and open up into mid level troughing as it gradually pushes
through coastal areas of the Southeast and through the Carolinas
tonight into Thursday. At the surface, the broad and disorganized
disturbance along the remnants of an old frontal boundary will also
begin to push northward as today progresses. At some point heading
into tonight, cyclogenesis will try to take place as a broad surface
low tries to develop over the Carolinas. This broad area of low
pressure will then remain parked over the coastal Carolinas heading
into Thursday as it will be blocked from moving northeastward by
strong high pressure centered in the western Atlantic.

These features will help to keep deep layer tropical moisture in
place this morning and heading into the early afternoon hours across
most of the region as PWAT values hover between 2.0 and 2.2 inches
across the region. At the same time, a Saharan Air Layer (SAL) will
be arriving and pushing across South Florida as today progresses.
While this will try to introduce some drier air into the mid levels,
the latest model soundings continue to show that the deep layer
tropical moisture will win out for a good portion of the day and
keep numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms in place until the
mid level low starts to pull further up to the northeast. Periods of
heavy downpours will continue to remain possible through the mid
afternoon hours which will continue to keep the localized flooding
potential in place across portions of the east coast metro areas
which have been already saturated from recent heavy rainfall over
the past several days. With 500 mb temperatures rising, (ranging
from -6 to -7C by this afternoon) along with limited dry air
intrusion from the SAL across the mid levels keeping a moist
atmospheric profile in place, these factors will help keep strong
thunderstorm chances limited.

As the low starts to move northeastward later in the day, the
heaviest rain will gradually shift to the north of the
region allowing for some drier air to move in from south to north
heading into the late afternoon and evening hours. This trend will
continue into Thursday especially as the Saharan Air Layer really
settles into the region and a drier air mass wins out and pushes
across the region. This will help to lower PWATs back down to 1.6 to
1.8 inches as suggested by the latest ensembles and model soundings.
This will still be enough moisture to support the typical daily
early summertime pattern with convection developing along the sea
breeze boundaries as they push inland. While the SAL will help to
somewhat limit coverage of showers and storms especially when
compared to what has been happening over the past several days, the
highest chances will remain over Southwest Florida and the Lake
Okeechobee region.

High temperatures today will still be held down somewhat due to the
the increased cloud cover over most of the region and will only rise
into the lower 80s across the Lake region. Temperatures may rise
into the mid to upper 80s along and south of Alligator Alley due to
some drier air trying to push into the region later in the day as
the mid level low begins to move northeastward. High temperatures on
Thursday will moderate and will range from the upper 80s along the
east coast to the lower 90s across interior portions of Southwest
Florida.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 134 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Heading into the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend, the
mid level pattern over the region will feature South Florida
remaining in a weakness between two mid level ridges, one centered
over the Gulf and another one over the western Atlantic. The
weakness will be the result of what is left of the mid level
low/trough complex off to the northeast as it moves off the Mid-
Atlantic coastline. At the surface, the western periphery of an area
of high pressure centered in the western Atlantic will push into the
region and remain in place through the end of the week and into the
upcoming weekend. At the same time, the Saharan Air Layer will also
remain intact across South Florida during this time frame, however,
it will slowly start to thin out as the upcoming weekend progresses.
With rather light wind flow at the surface, the daily winds will be
driven by the formation of the east and west coast sea breezes as
they develop and push inland. With enough lower level moisture in
place, this will be supportive of a typical summertime pattern with
highest chances of convection over the coastal areas in the morning
and then shifting towards the interior during the afternoon and
early evening hours due to sea breeze and convective outflow
boundary collisions. High temperatures for the end of the week and
into the upcoming weekend will rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s
across most areas, however, temperatures in the mid 90s will be
possible each day across interior portions of Southwest Florida.

As for early next week, mid level troughing will encompass most of
the eastern half of the country, however, the exception to this will
be over the South Florida Peninsula as the base of this troughing
looks to remain north of the region as strong mid level ridging
centered off to the east noses into the area. At the surface, a
frontal boundary looks to stall out well of to the north across the
Southeast and Gulf Coast States. While uncertainty does remain high
for this part of the forecast as it is towards the end of the
forecast period, this scenario would result in light wind flow
continuing and convection being driven by the sea breezes each day.
If this front were to slip a little bit further south, it may
provide some extra lift for convective development especially across
the northern areas, but the exact details are highly uncertain and
will be continue to be monitored as the week progresses. High
temperatures early next week will rise into the upper 80s and lower
90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 134 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

As an area of low pressure begins to move north across Florida
today, a band of showers and storms is expected to move through
south Florida from south to north. Gusty winds and lightning will
be the main threats. The threat for rain should end from south to
north from early afternoon at our southernmost terminals to early
evening around PBI. Prevailing SSE winds could gust to near 20
knots at times this afternoon (away from storms).

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 134 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

A moderate to fresh southeasterly wind flow will continue across the
local waters today. These winds will become gentle to moderate while
remaining southeasterly for the second half of the week. Seas across
the Atlantic and Gulf waters will remain between 2 to 4 feet through
Thursday morning before gradually diminishing and becoming 2 feet or
less for the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend. Numerous
showers and thunderstorms will remain in place across the region
today before becoming more scattered for the rest of the week and
into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 134 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

With onshore flow increasing, a moderate risk of rip currents will
continue across the Atlantic Coast beaches today into Thursday. This
risk will gradually diminsh towards the end of the week and into the
upcoming weekend as southeasterly wind flow diminishes.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            85  79  87  79 /  90  20  30  10
West Kendall     88  76  90  76 /  80  20  30  10
Opa-Locka        88  79  90  79 /  90  20  30  10
Homestead        86  79  88  79 /  80  20  30  10
Fort Lauderdale  84  79  87  79 /  90  30  30  10
N Ft Lauderdale  84  79  87  79 /  90  30  30  10
Pembroke Pines   89  80  92  81 /  90  20  30  10
West Palm Beach  84  77  87  77 / 100  30  30  10
Boca Raton       86  78  89  78 /  90  30  30  10
Naples           85  75  90  76 /  90  50  60  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for FLZ072>074-172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...Harrigan