331
FXUS62 KMFL 232329
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
629 PM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1210 PM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

Deep long wave troughing will gradually slide into the western
Atlantic waters today, while the mid level flow will become more
zonal in nature heading into tonight. A weaker mid level trough over
the Gulf of Mexico will gradually approach the Florida Peninsula by
Sunday. At the surface, a large area of high pressure centered over
the Southeast will gradually slide eastward as the weekend
progresses. This feature will keep dry conditions in place for today
and Sunday. A light to moderate north to northwesterly wind flow
across the region today will veer and become northeasterly as Sunday
progresses due to high pressure shifting eastward. High temperatures
this afternoon will still remain on the cooler side as cold air
advection continues in tandem with the prevailing northwesterly
surface winds. These high temperatures will range from the upper 60s
across the Lake Okeechobee region to the lower 70s elsewhere. Low
temperatures tonight will drop into the mid to upper 40s across the
Lake Okeechobee region to the lower 50s across the interior as well
as coastal areas of Southwest Florida. Lows across the east coast
metro areas will drop into the mid to upper 50s. A subtle warming
trend will ensue tomorrow, owing to a modest onshore component in
the winds (NE wind shift). This will allow for high temperatures on
Sunday to rise into the mid to upper 70s across most of South
Florida.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 200 PM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

Models depict dry and benign weather conditions prevailing through
most of the long term period. A broad and deep high pressure
system will remain centered around the western Atlantic, with a
slow warming trend establishing across SoFlo early next week.
Northerly flow gradually veers to a more easterly wind, bringing
temperatures back to near or just above normals. Expect afternoon
highs in the low to mid 80s, while morning lows remain around the
mid 50s to low 60s.

Latest long-range solutions suggest a deep trough/low complex
sweeping across the E CONUS to end the work week, which may push
an associated cold front into the Florida peninsula. However,
there is still low confidence in timing and extent of the
potential FROPA, which will surely be adjusted with upcoming model
guidance.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 PM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF cycle with light/vrb
winds overnight. Clear or mostly clear skies as easterly flow
develops by early afternoon. Winds go light/vrb again generally
after 00Z Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1210 PM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

Conditions will gradually improve across the local waters today as a
moderate north to northwesterly wind flow continues over the region
along with a subsiding northerly swell in the Atlantic. As the
weekend progresses, winds will gradually shift and become
northeasterly tonight into Sunday. Seas across the Atlantic waters
will range from 3 to 6 feet today, gradually dropping into the 2 to
4 feet on Sunday. Seas across the Gulf waters will range between 2
to 4 feet on Saturday before dropping to 2 feet or less on Sunday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1210 PM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

A moderate risk of rip currents will remain in place across the
Atlantic beaches today due to the lingering effects of a northerly
swell. The risk of rip currents may remain elevated mainly across
the Palm Beaches heading into early next week as onshore flow
becomes more prominent.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1210 PM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

As high pressure centered off to the north continues to bring a dry
north to northwesterly wind flow over the region today, minimum
relative humidity values could drop into the lower to mid 30s across
a good portion of the area this afternoon. The 20 foot wind speeds
will remain below 15 mph across all of South Florida, therefore, no
fire weather headlines will be needed today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            58  77  66  81 /   0   0   0   0
West Kendall     53  78  61  82 /   0   0   0   0
Opa-Locka        56  78  63  81 /   0   0   0   0
Homestead        56  77  64  81 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  58  76  66  80 /   0   0   0   0
N Ft Lauderdale  57  77  66  80 /   0   0   0   0
Pembroke Pines   56  80  63  83 /   0   0   0   0
West Palm Beach  57  77  64  80 /   0   0   0   0
Boca Raton       57  77  65  81 /   0   0   0   0
Naples           51  76  58  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRB
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...Rizzuto