953
FXUS62 KMFL 070732
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
332 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 324 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

- Heat advisory conditions expected over the next few days, take
  extra precautions when outside and be aware of symptoms of heat
  exhaustion and heat stroke.

- Late-week and weekend storms may bring a small and temporary
  relief from heat.

- Even higher heat indices possible late this weekend into early
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 324 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

The upper-level pattern generally consists of a positively tilted
ridge axis across the Southwest through the Central Plains, a trough
across the Great Lakes to the Southern Plains, and a ridge over the
SE and Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, the upper features are mostly
mirrored with the exception of a couple areas of lee cyclogenesis
off the Rocky`s (CO) and Appalachians (VA/NC). There`s decent
agreement within the global ensembles regarding the evolution of
this pattern over the next day or so, with the main differences
revolving around how the shortwave over the middle MS Valley ends up
absorbing (or not) into the main northern stream flow. Locally,
these differences do not appear to have any impact on the sensible
weather that we`re expecting.

As the western edge of the subtropical ridge builds a little further
west, southeasterly flow should become established across all of
south Florida. With plenty of moisture in place, expect the
seabreezes to be active again today. However, storms should be a
little more progressive in the W to NW direction, with a lesser
chance of storms spreading back to the east coast in the late
afternoon/evening.

While there will be scattered storms along the east coast early this
afternoon, the hit or miss nature of the coverage, combined with
high dewpoints should allow for locations across Broward and Miami-
Dade counties to reach heat advisory criteria (105+) as temperatures
rise into the low 90s. High dewpoints along the west coast, and more
time to heat up before convection starts, will result in a high
enough probability that heat indices will reach 108+ for a heat
advisory to be issued for Collier county as well.

Not much pattern change expected on Wednesday except the subtropical
ridge axis will move further west and provide enough advection to
begin spreading a Saharan Air layer overhead. While there may be
some haze in the low to mid atmosphere, the drier air is what will
affect the sensible weather most. Dry air above 850mb should put a
cap on convection across most of the region on Wednesday. The main
exception would be across the northwestern third of south Florida
where the dry air may not reach before storms would have a chance to
initiate. Even though dewpoints will drop a few degrees as we mix
into the drier air, the anomalous heights associated with the
subtropical ridge will bring an increase to the actual temperatures.
Heat advisories will likely be needed for a larger portion of South
Florida on Wednesday.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 324 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

The two main features we`ll be watching in the extended range
forecast is the movement of a TUTT across the SW Atlantic and the
eventual amplification of an eastern CONUS trough and how that
trough affects the ridge across Florida.

First though, we`ll pick up where we left off above. A strong ridge
overhead and a dry Saharan Air Layer will prevail through Thursday.
We`ll likely see high temperatures in the middle 90s along the east
coast, and upper 90s across the interior and west coast. The warming
temperatures will offset the fact that Thursday will be the driest
afternoon, as we expect yet another day of heat advisory conditions
across South Florida. Thankfully, the dry air looks like it will
help curtail heat warning criteria.

Friday and Saturday`s weather will be dependent on the evolution,
and progression of the aforementioned TUTT. Because these features
are best represented above 500mb, traditional cluster analysis
methods off 500mb heights don`t provide much clarity in the
potential scenarios represented by the global ensembles. Clustering
on QPF objects does seem to sort the ensembles into a slightly drier
or wetter scenario and also a faster vs slower scenario. Some of the
uncertainty regarding wetter or drier is going to have to do with
how the moisture and forcing from aloft plays with the drier SAL air
in the lower-levels. From a predictability standpoint, that`s going
to be difficult to narrow down. The progressiveness of the features
appears to be intertwined with the development of the eastern CONUS
trough. A slower and slightly more amplified trough nudges the
subtropical ridge axis back eastward and acts to block or slow the
forward progression of the TUTT, while the more progressive and less
amplified (across the central/eastern CONUS) allows the subtropical
ridge to remain in place with a steady westward advection to the
TUTT. For now, the majority of the ensemble membership lies in the
camp of a slower and slightly more amplified northern stream trough
and a slower progression of the TUTT. This will bring a couple days
of much needed rainfall to south Florida on Friday and Saturday,
before a deep pocket of dry air overruns the TUTT and overcomes any
forcing from the weakening feature. Thus, drying out is forecast to
end the period.

The heat forecast will be tricky on Friday and Saturday simply due
to how much rain we end up getting, how widespread the coverage is,
and when it occurs. While heat indices will remain elevated, there`s
probably the lowest chance for heat advisory conditions on Friday
and Saturday. All indications are that when the eastern CONUS trough
moves off the eastern US coast, it will allow the subtropical ridge
to spread back across south Florida. This will bring anomalous
heights to the region once again, with onshore flow pumping plenty
of low-level moisture across the region. There`s a high likelihood
of heat advisory conditions to end the weekend and to start next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 137 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Storms are expected to start along the east coast in the early
afternoon and wrap up by late afternoon as they move northwest
away from the coast. Along the west coast, a similar timeline is
expected, except storms may linger into the early evening before
moving north of APF. Background winds will generally be SErly, but
will become onshore near the coasts along and behind the
seabreezes. Light S/SE winds will prevail in the wake of
convection.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 324 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Drier conditions are expected over our Atlantic waters today, and
over Atlantic and Gulf waters Wednesday and Thursday. Light winds
and low seas will prevail into mid-week, but a building subtropical
ridge axis may bring an uptick in winds and seas late this week.
Winds will generally remain out of the east or southeast for the
next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            92  80  93  82 /  50  20  10   0
West Kendall     92  77  93  79 /  60  10  10   0
Opa-Locka        93  80  94  81 /  50  10  10   0
Homestead        92  80  93  81 /  60  10  10   0
Fort Lauderdale  91  81  92  82 /  50  10  20   0
N Ft Lauderdale  91  80  92  82 /  50  10  20   0
Pembroke Pines   94  81  95  83 /  50  10  10   0
West Palm Beach  91  79  92  80 /  50  10  20   0
Boca Raton       91  80  91  82 /  50  10  20   0
Naples           92  78  94  79 /  40  20  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening
     for FLZ069-070-072-074-172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM....Harrigan
AVIATION...Harrigan