032
FXUS62 KMFL 220507
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
107 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 104 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Hurricane Erin will continue racing NE away from the US over the
next couple days, while a stationary frontal boundary will sit along
the northern Gulf coastline over to the SE US coast. Locally, light
westerly winds will remain in place through Saturday, although the
east coast sea-breeze will try to make a brief push inland each day
during the afternoon. Scattered showers and storms are expected
mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours today and
Saturday. The east coast sea-breeze will aid in additional
development of storms across the metro mid to late afternoon. A few
stronger storms are possible, with gusty winds being the main
threat. With the sea-breeze pinned near the Atlantic coast today,
the possibility of multiple storms developing over the same area
will present an urban/poor drainage flooding risk today.

The MM 39 wildfire is still burning in western Broward despite the
area seeing a little bit of rain yesterday. This means some
localized areas of smoke will continue to impact some suburbs in
western Broward through early afternoon, and then some relief may
come from winds shifting to the SE in the afternoon and the
potential for more rainfall over the site.

High temps today and Saturday will range from the low to mid 90s
over the metro, to mid and upper 90s over inland South FL. While
heat indices this afternoon may reach advisory criteria, storm
coverage should prevent most areas from remaining at criteria for at
least a couple hours, so no headlines are currently planned. Low
temps tonight will range from the middle 70s over inland South FL,
to around 80 closer to the coasts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 104 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

For the end of the weekend into early next week, a trough will dig
into the eastern US. A surface boundary associated with a system in
eastern Canada will push into the SE US by Monday, and then settle
north of Lake Okeechobee by the middle of the week. The
predominately westerly flow will continue through early next week
which will result in the highest PoPs favoring the eastern half of
the forecast area, and then easterly flow returns by mid week which
will result in a more typical summertime pattern with the highest
PoPs favoring inland and SW FL.

Temperatures through the extended period will remain above normal
with highs in the 90s each day, and low temps ranging from the
middle 70s to around 80.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 104 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

VFR to start the 06Z TAF period with light and variable winds.
Westerly winds 5-10 kts late morning into the early afternoon and
then the east coast sea-breeze develops bringing SE winds to the
east coast terminals except for TMB. Scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon into early evening may result in brief flight
restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 104 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds are expected over the
local waters through the weekend. 3-6 ft seas in the Atlantic today
subside to 2-5 ft for the weekend. Gulf waters will remain 2 ft or
less. Scattered thunderstorms are possible each day which may result
in locally hazardous winds and seas.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 104 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

A lingering NE swell associated with Hurricane Erin will result in a
high risk of rip currents for the Atlantic waters through
Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            94  77  93  79 /  60  30  60  20
West Kendall     94  76  93  77 /  60  20  50  20
Opa-Locka        95  78  95  78 /  60  30  60  20
Homestead        93  77  92  77 /  50  20  40  20
Fort Lauderdale  93  77  92  78 /  60  30  60  30
N Ft Lauderdale  94  78  93  79 /  70  30  60  30
Pembroke Pines   97  79  97  78 /  70  30  60  30
West Palm Beach  94  77  94  77 /  70  40  70  30
Boca Raton       95  77  95  77 /  70  30  70  30
Naples           93  80  92  80 /  50  10  50  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday afternoon for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...CMF