254
FXUS62 KMFL 090049 AAC
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
849 PM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 845 PM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025

Quick update to the forecast tonight. The latest 00Z MIA sounding
came in with 2.30 inches of PWAT which is near the maximum PWAT
values for this time of year which is 2.40 inches. Therefore,
heavy rainfall wording has been added to the forecast for tonight
especially over the metro areas of South Florida. Rest of the
forecast looks good at this time and no other changes are planned.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 652 PM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025

As we approach sunset and the loss of diurnal heating, expect any
interior peninsula convection to gradually wind down through about
10 PM. At the same time, the turnover of the diurnal cycle favoring
nighttime convection over the nearshore waters of South Florida will
begin to take over. This will coincide with a bit of a moisture
surge from the SE for the development of numerous showers and
scattered thunderstorms late tonight and early Saturday morning
which should move onshore and affect metro sections of both Atlantic
and Gulf coasts of South Florida. Locally heavy rainfall can be
expected, and this along with lightning and gusty winds are the main
threats.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 128 PM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025

A slow-moving low pressure trough extending from Central Florida
into the eastern Gulf will continue to be the primary focus for
showers and thunderstorms across South Florida this afternoon
through the weekend. Convergent low-level SE to S wind flow.
combined with seasonably high precipitable water (PWAT) values over
2 inches and a 200-300 mb high over South Florida providing upper-
level diffluence, will favor the development of rounds of
precipitation moving through our region.

This afternoon`s convection will likely have a noticeable diurnal
influence, concentrating over the interior and Lake Okeechobee areas
but with scattered showers and thunderstorms also affecting parts of
metro SE Florida and the Gulf coast. Similar to the past few days,
localized rainfall amounts of up to 4 inches are possible, along
with gusty winds near 40 mph.

Tonight and Saturday: A stream of higher PWAT values indicated by
the models streaming into South Florida late tonight and Saturday
may lead to enhanced rounds of widespread showers and embedded
thunderstorms overnight and into Saturday morning near and along the
Atlantic and Gulf coasts, then spreading northward/inland across
the remainder of the southern Florida peninsula during the day on
Saturday. High rainfall amounts are certainly possible, with HREF
LPMM indicating localized amounts over 4 inches. This will be
something to watch closely over the next 12-24 hours.

Temperatures will be held down some by the clouds and precipitation,
potentially more so on Saturday. Highs this afternoon will still
reach the lower 90s over the interior in the next 1-2 hours before
the arrival of the rain, with highs on Saturday a couple of degrees
lower due to the increased and prolonged period of cloud cover and
precipitation. Heat index values will still approach or slightly
exceed 100F, but not high or for long enough duration for advisory
thresholds to be met.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 230 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025

The warm and wet summer pattern continues as we close out the
weekend and kick off the new work week. A mid-level trough over the
eastern United States is eventually replaced with an approaching
long-wave trough that moves across the central United States on
Monday before deamplifying a bit as it enters the eastern third of
the country by mid-week. At the surface, the Atlantic high remains a
bit north of a more customary Bermuda high`s center which allows the
region to remain on the periphery in the path of several tropical
waves and their associated moisture. Rain chances may drop closer to
climatological norms for this time of year but activity remains in
the forecast daily. Temperatures and heat index values could also
climb in the long term allowing for a greater risk for heat illness.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 652 PM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025

Fairly isolated SHRA/TSRA 00z-06z expected to increase after 06z
along both east and west coasts of South Florida, with VCTS and
PROB30 for TSRA indicated at all TAF sites. Occasional MVFR and
brief IFR possible and updates will be issued as we get a better
handle on specific terminals to be impacted. A possible break in
the SHRA/VCTS at the TAF sites around 18z Saturday, but will keep
VCSH or VCTS in forecast through most of the forecast period.
Prevailing wind 110- 120 degrees around 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025

Light to moderate easterly to southeasterly winds continue into the
weekend. Gulf breezes will bring a shift to west-southwesterly winds
over the west coast each afternoon. Seas should remain around 1-2
ft, except around thunderstorms, which could produce brief periods
of rough seas and gusty winds.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 128 PM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025

A light easterly to southeasterly wind flow will lead to a low
risk of rip currents at most of the beaches this weekend. The
only exception will be along the Palm Beach County coast where a
northerly long period swell will elevate the rip current risk.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            79  88  79  90 /  70  80  40  70
West Kendall     77  88  77  90 /  60  90  40  80
Opa-Locka        77  89  79  92 /  70  80  40  70
Homestead        77  88  78  90 /  60  80  50  70
Fort Lauderdale  78  88  79  90 /  80  90  50  70
N Ft Lauderdale  79  89  79  90 /  80  80  40  70
Pembroke Pines   79  91  79  93 /  70  80  40  70
West Palm Beach  77  89  78  91 /  80  90  40  70
Boca Raton       78  90  78  93 /  80  90  50  70
Naples           77  91  77  91 /  50  80  60  90

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Molleda
LONG TERM....RAG
AVIATION...Molleda
UPDATE...BNB