361
FXUS62 KMFL 221745
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1245 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES, AND FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1245 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

A secondary cold front moving through South Florida early this
afternoon will continue to move Southward and into the Florida
Keys tonight. This front will continue to bring in drier and
colder weather to South Florida tonight into Saturday.

Lows tonight is forecast to fall down into the 40s over the
northern interior areas to lower 50s over the southern interior
areas. Lows along the east coast will get down to around 50 except
for Miami-Dade and Coastal Broward Counties where the lows should
fall down into the lower to mid 50s. The west coast metro areas
will see the lows get down to around 50. Highs on Saturday will
struggle to get up to around 70 over most areas except upper 60s
around Lake Okeechobee due to the very dry air in place.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 126 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

To close out the weekend, the ridge of high pressure to our north
will preface it`s exit with one more chilly morning. Overnight
Saturday into Sunday morning, the cold air mass will keep most lows
in the mid-40s around Lake Okeechobee and interior southern FL, with
the remainder of South FL in the low to mid 50s. However, on Sunday
into early next week, the high pressure system will begin to drift
eastward allowing the low level winds to veer east/northeastward.
While Sunday afternoon highs will trend below climatological normal,
they will be the start of a warming trend due to the ENE winds.

Next week, with the easterly winds and influence of the Atlantic
warmth, temperatures will trend warmer, and potentially reach above
climatological normals by mid-week. Afternoon highs will be back in
the the upper 70s and low 80s on Monday and widespread 80s by
Tuesday. Overnight lows will be closer to normal with temperatures
keeping to the upper 50s and 60s by Tuesday morning. With the
influence of the high pressure and dry air mass, conditions are
expected to remain benign and dry through at least the first half of
the new week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

Winds will remain northwest around 10 to 15 knots this afternoon
before decreasing to 5 knots or less tonight. VFR conditions at
all of the TAF sites through tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1245 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

The winds will remain north to northwest at 15 to 20 knots this
afternoon into tonight before slowly decreasing on Saturday to 10
to 15 knots. The winds will then continue to slowly decrease to 5
to 10 knots by early next week while swinging to a north northeast
direction.

Atlantic seas of 5 to 7 feet this afternoon will slowly subside
to tonight and be at 4 to 6 feet by Saturday. The Atlantic seas
will continue to subside late this weekend and by early next week
be at 2 feet or less. The Gulf seas will slowly subside from 3 to
5 feet this afternoon to 2 feet or less by late this weekend.
Therefore, the SCA will continue for the Atlantic seas through
tonight.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1245 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

A moderate risk of rip currents will continue across all South
Florida beaches through early part of this weekend before
decreasing late this weekend into early next week.

&&

FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1245 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

The relative humidity this afternoon will be in the lower to mid
30s over the east coast metro areas with 20 foot winds around 15
mph. However, the FPF will remain in the low category this
afternoon.

On Saturday, the relative humidity will be lower over South
Florida in the upper 20s to lower 30s. However, the 20 foot winds
will be less than 15 mph over South Florida along with low
category in the FPF. Therefore, NO fire weather headlines will be
needed at this time for South Florida.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            53  73  57  77 /   0   0   0   0
West Kendall     53  73  51  78 /   0   0   0   0
Opa-Locka        52  73  55  78 /   0   0   0   0
Homestead        51  73  55  77 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  52  72  58  76 /   0   0   0   0
N Ft Lauderdale  52  71  57  76 /   0   0   0   0
Pembroke Pines   52  72  55  79 /   0   0   0   0
West Palm Beach  49  70  55  76 /   0   0   0   0
Boca Raton       50  71  55  77 /   0   0   0   0
Naples           51  71  51  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BNB
LONG TERM....JS
AVIATION...BNB