581
FXUS62 KMFL 042317
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
717 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 633 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

    - Dangerous rip currents will continue at all Atlantic beaches
      through the rest of the weekend.

    - A moderate to strong easterly breeze will bring continued
      hazardous conditions to the Atlantic waters through Sunday
      afternoon.

    - An unsettled pattern is becoming increasingly likely next
      week with periods of gusty winds and heavy rainfall possible
      across portions of South Florida.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Previous forecast remains on track as a foci of low-topped shower
activity has gradually congealed along the gulf sea-breeze this
afternoon. Diurnal mixing of drier air down to the surface has
limited/inhibited the spatial extent of these showers, however a
low-end chance still remains for an isolated storm or two
directly along the coast or just offshore during the remainder of
the afternoon into the early evening hours. A low-level lapse rate
gradient, 1500-2500 J/kg SBCAPE, and the localized ascent could
support one or two robust strong cores although several limiting
factors remain in play. Main threat if a tall enough core does
materialize would be small hail and gusty winds as the inverted V
signature remains in recent ACARS soundings from RSW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 135 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

The surface high pressure will preside over South Florida for one
more day before beginning to break down on Sunday, maintaining the
brisk and steady easterly flow across the region. The development of
diurnal sea breeze circulations and diurnal heating will continue to
be the primary influencers in some isolated shower activity and
perhaps a couple of thunderstorms. 500mb temperatures are still very
cold for this time of year (-11 to -12C), which will support steeper
mid-level lapse rates that can cause a core or two to become
taller and result in downdraft potential given the drier air aloft
and an inverted-V being present on many of the hi-res model
soundings. Nevertheless, with high pressure dominance this is
expected to be an extremely isolated threat as it relates to storm
potential. With the ongoing easterly regime, highest rain chances
are likely to favor the Gulf coast areas during the afternoon
hours with chances for some isolated activity in the morning hours
near the Atlantic coast.

For the second half of the weekend, a more unsettled pattern begins
to take shape. The previously mentioned robust trough traversing
across the central U.S. will approach and advect across the Eastern
Seaboard by the end of day on Sunday. An attendant cold front to
this trough will be advecting southwards along the leading edge of
the trough axis, but will start waning in strength as it mixes with
a warmer environment in Northern Florida. However, we will begin to
see some deeper moisture return occurring both from the tropics of
the Caribbean and from the front forcing some moisture from the
central U.S. southwards. All in all, PWATs rise to around 1.3-1.6"
for Sunday afternoon and evening when the frontal boundary starts to
slow down in the vicinity of northern Florida. As the deeper
moisture starts to settle in, the potential for enhanced convection
will be along the sea breezes and any boundary collisions (sea
breezes and outflows) on Sunday. Convective parameters are not
popping out in a way that supports much severe activity, but there
is always a chance for one or two storms to become stronger than the
rest, particularly among boundary collisions. These collisions are
most likely to occur over interior and Gulf coast areas as easterly
flow continues for most of Sunday, which is where the highest PoPs
(50-60%) are on Sunday. East coast metro areas are closer to 40%.

High temperatures for the next couple of days will still be in the
80s with the hotter temperatures (upper 80s) being felt across the
Gulf coast areas under the persistent easterly wind regime.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 135 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Heading into the new week, the large synoptic trough continues to
swing through the Eastern Seaboard while the aforementioned frontal
boundary washes out and begins to sag more southwards. Long-range
guidance still is uncertain in regards to how far south the boundary
may get as some ensemble suites have it pushing through as a weak
front while others have the boundary stalling completely around the
Central Florida area. Regardless of the solution, the overall
results will not differ a ton in terms of overall rain chances as
deeper moisture pools across the region and the nearby presence of
the frontal boundary will help provide extra instability for
continued unsettled conditions on Monday.

By mid-week, an increasingly active and wet pattern has the
potential to take shape, although the potential range of solutions
still very pretty drastically. On the large scale, a secondary
shortwave trough is anticipated to advect across the Gulf and
towards the Florida Peninsula that will provide extra forcing for
ascent via consistent positive vorticity advection. This will be in
tandem with the diurnal sea breeze circulations and enhanced jet
stream dynamics as the subtropical jet streams across Florida and
increases divergence aloft. Therefore, with multiple forcing
mechanisms and deep moisture anticipated to pool over South Florida
(PWATs rising to 1.5-1.8 inches or higher), the potential exists for
some widespread rainfall heading towards the middle of the week.
Total QPF ranges will have to be ironed out over the next several
days, but all in all this time frame is trending to be wetter than
normal. The troughing pattern could linger into the end of the week
as well, keeping the wetter and more unsettled pattern in place
although this being at the tail end of the forecast period also
creates the most uncertainty.

High temperatures are expected in the low to mid 80s on Monday with
exception for the upper 80s for Gulf coast metro areas. By Tuesday
and into the mid-week time frame, temperatures may fall back into
the upper 70s for many areas for a couple of days as the front
stalls and rain cooled air occurs. Temperatures are then likely to
rebound for the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Generally VFR with a breezy easterly wind flow overnight. Atlantic
showers could bring brief bouts of sub-VFR, mainly over the east
coast terminals late overnight into the Sunday morning hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 135 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

A fresh to strong easterly breeze will continue across the Atlantic
waters through today and tonight before starting to decrease on
Sunday. During this same time frame, a moderate breeze will be
observed over the Gulf waters. A Small Craft Advisory remains in
effect for the Atlantic waters and Biscayne Bay through this evening
due to sustained winds expected at 20-25 kts. A few showers are
possible today with increasing rain chances beginning Sunday and
into next week. Seas across the Atlantic waters will mainly be in
the 4-6 ft range  while Gulf seas are forecast to remain in the 2-3
ft range.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 135 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

The high risk for dangerous rip currents will continue at all
Atlantic beaches through this weekend as gusty onshore winds
persist.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            72  82  71  83 /  20  40  30  60
West Kendall     69  84  67  85 /  10  40  30  60
Opa-Locka        71  83  70  85 /  20  40  30  60
Homestead        72  82  71  83 /  20  40  30  50
Fort Lauderdale  72  80  72  81 /  20  40  30  60
N Ft Lauderdale  72  80  71  82 /  20  40  30  60
Pembroke Pines   72  84  72  86 /  20  40  30  60
West Palm Beach  71  81  70  82 /  20  30  30  60
Boca Raton       72  80  71  82 /  20  40  30  60
Naples           69  86  68  85 /  10  50  30  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ630.

     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Redman
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION...RAG