973
FXUS62 KMFL 100503
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
103 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 100 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026

    - High (level 4/5) chance of heat-related impacts across south
      Florida through Monday.

- Scattered thunderstorms possible late in the day, with chances
      further increasing early this upcoming week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 100 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026

Mid/upper level ridge will continue across the region today and
Monday. At the surface, high pressure will remain in control.
Southerly winds will continue to pump in moist and humid air into
the low levels, with PWAT values of 1.8-2 inches across South FL.
Increasing shower and storm chances are expected today and Monday,
with the highest chances from mid afternoon through early evening
both days, favoring inland locations and western portions of the
metro. Can`t rule out an isolated strong to marginally severe storm,
with strong winds being the primary threat.

The heat will continue to be a story the next couple days. Afternoon
high temps will be in the lower 90s across the east and west coast
metro, with mid to upper 90s over inland locations. Combined with
dewpoints in the middle 70s, max heat indices will be 100-105, with
locally higher values over SW FL. While heat headlines are not
expected, anyone with outdoor plans will want to plan accordingly to
stay safe from the heat. Not much relief is expected overnight, with
low temps only falling into the lower 70s over inland locations, and
mid to upper 70s closer to the coasts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 100 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026

Unsettled weather continues this next week as an upper level trough
ejects from the southern plains early in the week, and swinging
across FL by mid week. A surface frontal boundary will cross the
state during the day on Tuesday and settle across the Straits before
dissipating mid week. A short wave and back door cold front will
cross the area towards the end of the work week.

Highest rainfall chances will be on Tuesday associated with the
frontal boundary crossing the area and trough axis approaching the
area from the west. Depending on timing, this could result in a few
stronger storms across the area, as well as an isolated urban
flooding risk. Will need to monitor this threat closely over the
coming days. Rain chances will remain elevated through Wednesday
before drier conditions return for the end of the week, although the
short wave and backdoor front will keep at least a slight chance of
showers and storms in the forecast.

Temperatures will remain above normal next week, with highs
generally ranging in the upper 80s to lower 90s across the metro, to
low and mid 90s over inland locations. Overnight lows will be in the
60s/70s each night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 100 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026

Light and variable winds this morning becoming SE around 10 kts
this afternoon, with a SW breeze expected at APF. SCT
thunderstorms possible late in the day.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 100 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026

Mainly benign conditions expected today and into early this upcoming
week. Light to moderate southerly winds expected. Seas generally 2
ft or less in the Atlantic and a foot or less in the Gulf. Scattered
thunderstorms are possible each day which may result in locally
hazardous winds and seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            91  77  91  77 /  20  10  30  30
West Kendall     93  74  93  75 /  20  10  30  30
Opa-Locka        93  76  93  77 /  20  10  30  40
Homestead        91  76  91  77 /  10  10  10  20
Fort Lauderdale  89  77  89  78 /  10  10  30  40
N Ft Lauderdale  91  76  90  77 /  20  10  40  50
Pembroke Pines   95  78  95  79 /  20  10  40  40
West Palm Beach  92  76  91  76 /  30  20  60  60
Boca Raton       90  78  89  78 /  20  10  50  60
Naples           94  74  94  76 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...CMF