526
FXUS62 KMFL 042306
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
706 PM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1242 PM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

The axis of the mid-level ridge will begin to pivot into the western
Atlantic today, along with the upper-level ridge beginning to spill
over the Florida Peninsula. The strong surface high underneath this
deep ridge will be centered in the offshore western Atlantic waters
and maintain the gusty east-southeasterly flow pattern. An overall
dry air mass will remain present along with the easterly flow
allowing for the infiltration of low-to-mid level moisture (mainly a
very thin layer between ~900-850mb), which will in turn allow for
the formation of some low-topped cumulus cloud coverage and result
in a capping inversion in a shallow layer above the cloud layer.
Therefore, due to this capping, predominantly dry weather is
forecasted for today although a couple of isolated light showers
cannot be entirely ruled out. This same pattern will repeat itself
tomorrow, with dry weather and gusty southeasterly winds ongoing.

Due to the strength of the ridge, temperatures will continue to be
hotter than average for early April with forecasted high
temperatures for today and tomorrow in the mid 80s along the east
coast to the upper 80s and low 90s across interior South Florida and
the Gulf coast. Overnight lows tonight will range from the upper 60s
near the lake region to the mid 70s for the east coast metro.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Late This Weekend Into Early Next Week...
South Florida will remain between a departing mid-level ridge
across the western Atlantic waters and a deep mid-level trough
located across the central United States and western Gulf. 500mb
flow will veer to a southwesterly direction in tandem with surface
flow veering to a southerly direction. This subtle shift at the
surface and aloft will usher in a period of heat across the region
as afternoon temperatures on Sunday reach the low 90s (potentially
middle 90s in a few spots) across inland southwestern Florida
with heat indices (feels-like temperatures) in the middle to upper
90s. With the continued pivot of the mid-level trough and
associated surface features further east on Monday, South Florida
will be firmly in the warm sector ahead of a frontal boundary.
Surface winds will veer to a southwesterly component, ushering in
a regime favorable for afternoon high temperatures several degrees
above average on the east coast. People are reminded to exercise
caution if outdoors for extended periods of time and to take the
necessary precautions to ensure heat safety for you and your loved
ones.

As the axis of the mid-level trough pivots across the northern Gulf coast
on Tuesday, the associated surface low will accelerate northeastwards
well away from the region as an attendant surface frontal boundary sweeps
eastwards through the Florida peninsula. An envelope of deeper moisture
is forecast to travel in tandem with the frontal boundary as it arrives
across the region. The added lift associated with the presence of
this feature could act to support scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms across South Florida on Tuesday. The timing of the
surface boundary, the mid-level cold pool aloft, and instability
will dictate on how robust convection could be. Given that we
still remain a few days out, model guidance still remains murky on
spatial coverage and whether any threat of stronger storms may
exist. One thing that does appear to be clear is that measurable
precipitation does appear to be in the forecast given the higher
rain chances and a more unstable airmass in place.

Middle To End Of Next Week...
Surface winds will then veer to a northeasterly direction and
enhance behind the frontal boundary allowing for dry air to work
into South Florida. However, with the northeast wind flow over the
region low level surface moisture will remain over the east coast
metro areas. Therefore, rain chances will remain in place across
the eastern half of the region for Wednesday and Thursday. The
breezy winds combined with increased cloudiness and shower
activity will result in high temperatures near or below seasonal
averages across most of South Florida during the mid week period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 701 PM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

VFR conditions will prevail for the 00Z TAF period. The winds
have began to relax, but the SE winds will maintain 10-12KT
overnight. The breezy winds will return tomorrow around 15Z,
peaking in the afternoon and evening at 13-18KT, with gusts up to
25KT. Otherwise, mostly clear with VFR cigs at all TAF sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1242 PM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

A moderate to fresh southeasterly breeze will continue across the
local waters through the first part of the weekend. While cautionary
conditions will continue in the Gulf, hazardous conditions for small
craft will continue across the Biscayne Bay and Atlantic waters of
South Florida through Saturday morning. Winds will slowly begin to
subside during the second half of the weekend into early next week.
Seas across the Atlantic waters will range from 3 to 5 feet through
the end of the week while seas across the Gulf waters range from 2
to 4 feet.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1242 PM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

As breezy southeasterly winds continue, the high risk of rip
currents will continue for the east coast beaches of South Florida
into the upcoming weekend. As winds veer to a south and then
southwesterly direction early next week, the risk will decrease
along the east coast but increase to a high risk along the Gulf
beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            75  83  73  85 /  10  10   0   0
West Kendall     72  86  73  86 /  10  10   0   0
Opa-Locka        74  84  73  85 /  10  10   0   0
Homestead        74  84  74  84 /  10  10   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  74  82  75  84 /  10  10   0   0
N Ft Lauderdale  74  83  74  84 /  10  10   0   0
Pembroke Pines   75  84  73  85 /  10  10   0   0
West Palm Beach  73  83  72  85 /  10  10   0   0
Boca Raton       74  84  73  84 /  10  10   0   0
Naples           70  88  70  84 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ630-650-651-
     670-671.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Redman
LONG TERM....BNB
AVIATION...JS