484
FXUS62 KMFL 061805
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
205 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

...Mostly Dry Weather This Weekend Before Returning To Summer Type
Weather Pattern Next Week...

.DISCUSSION...

This Afternoon Through Saturday...

The Saharan Dust will continue to remain over South Florida through
Saturday as the ridge of high pressure remains over Florida. This
will keep a easterly wind flow over the region as the sea breezes
this afternoon and again on Saturday. Where the sea breezes collide
this afternoon and again Saturday afternoon a few showers and
thunderstorms could develop over the interior areas. Therefore, a
slight chance to low end chance of showers and thunderstorms will
remain in the forecast for the interior areas of South Florida this
afternoon and again Saturday afternoon while rest of South Florida
remains dry.

Lows tonight should fall down to 70 to 75 degrees over the interior
areas with the metro areas only getting down into the mid to upper
70s. Highs on Saturday will be able to warm up into the lower 90s
over the metro areas to mid 90s over the interior areas. The heat
index readings will be able to get up into the 100 to 105 degrees
range over all of South Florida on Saturday.

Late This Weekend...
The Saharan Dust will remain over South Florida late this weekend
which will keep the drier air in place over South Florida limiting
the showers and thunderstorm coverage. However, there will still be
some showers and thunderstorms over the area on Sunday where the sea
breezes and Lake breeze collide over the interior areas.

Sunday highs and heat index readings will be a repeat of Saturday
highs and heat index readings. Lows will also remain in the lower
70s over the interior areas to mid to upper 70s over the metro areas.

Early To Middle Of Next Week...
The pattern becomes a bit more progressive at the beginning of the
next week as a mid-level trough will begin to deepen across the
Eastern Seaboard. Model guidance are still showing the Gulf ridge
weakening as a result, making way for the ridge over the western
Atlantic to begin expanding eastward into our region, in concert
with its corresponding surface high, which will continue to build
into South FL. Meanwhile, NASA/GMAO GEOS modeling of the Dust
Aerosol Optical Thickness has the dust clearing out on Monday
afternoon. If both of these solutions pans out, the building ridge
could act to keep the mid-level trough well north of our area, and
with it the more unsettled and impactful weather. However, with the
Saharan dust finally clearing making way for tropical moisture to
return to the area, the chances for mesoscale driven showers and
thunderstorms along the sea breezes each afternoon could increase
considerably mid week. And if the trough happens to dip any further
south, it could result in even higher chances for unsettled weather.
For now, we`re going with a forecast that straddles both the drier
and wetter solutions with PoPs in the 50-70% range, but the forecast
will need to be closely monitored and adjusted over the next couple
of days if this trend changes.

Daily high temperatures will generally be in the low to mid 90s each
day with highest temperatures over the interior. Overnight lows each
night will be in the low 70s around the Lake Okeechobee region and
interior, with mid 70s for the Gulf coast and upper 70s to near 80
for the east coast metro.

&&

.AVIATION...
The winds will remain easterly over most of the TAF sites through
tonight except for KAPF TAF site where winds will be westerly
through 00Z. Ceiling and Vis will remain in VFR conditions at all
of the TAF sites through tonight along with dry weather.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will be mainly south to southeast over the local waters of
South Florida this weekend before going to more of a east southeast
direction for next week. Wind speeds will be 10 knots this weekend
into next week over all of South Florida waters.  This will keep the
seas at 2 feet or less in both the Atlantic and Gulf waters of South
Florida through next week. Therefore, boating conditions looks good
this weekend into next week outside of any showers or thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            77  92  77  92 /  10  10  10  20
West Kendall     76  93  76  93 /  10  10  10  20
Opa-Locka        77  93  77  92 /  10  10  10  20
Homestead        78  90  78  90 /  10  10  10  20
Fort Lauderdale  78  91  78  90 /  10  10  10  20
N Ft Lauderdale  77  92  77  91 /  10  10  10  20
Pembroke Pines   77  93  77  92 /  10  10  10  20
West Palm Beach  76  93  76  91 /  10  10  10  20
Boca Raton       77  91  77  91 /  10  10  10  20
Naples           75  91  75  91 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BNB
LONG TERM....BNB/ATV
AVIATION...BNB