883
FXUS62 KMFL 041037
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
637 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 402 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

Ensemble consensus depict deepening mid/upper troughiness across the
SE CONUS and the northern Gulf waters, with several shortwave
impulses moving along the trough towards the Atlantic. At the
low/sfc lvl, latest analyses show the frontal boundary lingering
over the Florida panhandle pushing a little further southward today,
remaining just north of the Orlando/Melbourne area. Guidance seems
to keep the front in place today, then lifting back northward on
Tuesday as a weak ridge axis over the west Atlantic lifts northward
and into the central portions of the peninsula.

The overall synoptic pattern will result in winds shifting to a more
southerly flow, even SSW at times. In response, moisture advection
will increase, with POPs/Wx coverage on a rising trend during the
short term. Chances of rain/thunderstorms will be in the scattered
to numerous category, with POPs over the interior and west areas
of SoFlo up to around 70 percent by Tuesday. Latest model
soundings also show an upward trend in PWATs with possible 2+
inches by Tuesday.

Expect the prevailing pattern of diurnal cycle-induced convection
to continue, with scattered to numerous and thunderstorms each
afternoon. Sea breezes will again become focal points for the
deepest convection and the strongest storms. The southerly
component will help in keeping the best chances over interior and
NW areas of SoFlo. A few early evening showers or storms may
linger around coastal locations. Main hazards will be frequent
lightning strikes, damaging wind gusts, and increased potential
for large hail.

Heat impacts will again become an issue today with heat index values
reaching the 105-110 range this afternoon. Therefore, an advisory
will again be in effect today from 11am to 7pm for much of SoFlo.
Afternoon max temps will be in the low-mid 90s, along with
nighttime lows in the mid- upper 70s inland, and in the low 80s
closer to the coasts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 402 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

Model consensus remains consistent in showing a deeper U/L trough
over the extreme SE CONUS and extending into the NE Gulf waters to
start the long term. At the low levels, the nearly stagnant
synoptic flow will allow for a sfc frontal boundary to linger over
extreme northern Florida through the end of the week. Meanwhile,
a series of shortwave impulses are seen in ensemble and global
solutions moving along the main trough, which may result in
enhanced favorable upper level conditions for deeper convection
and stronger thunderstorms. The bulk of convective activity is
again expected during the afternoon hours and into the early
evening hours each day.

POPs/Wx coverage should steadily increase with 60-80 percent chances
for the second half of the work week, even up to 90 percent possible
in some locations Thu and Fri. Model PWATs of 2 inches or higher may
result in localized heavy showers, especially with slow-moving
thunderstorms. Main hazards will again be frequent lightning
strikes, damaging wind gusts, and increased potential for large
hail.

Expect afternoon high temp values in the low 90s near the coasts,
and mid-upper 90s for inland areas and the Lake region. Nighttime
lows should remain in the mid 70s inland to around 80 near the
coasts. Heat index values of 105-110 are possible at least on
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

SHRA/TSRA may bring periods of sub-MVFR cigs/vis through the
early evening hours if activity directly impacts terminals. Winds
at KAPF are forecast to veer to a southwesterly flow between
16-18z as the Gulf breeze pushes onshore. Southeasterly flow
will prevail at all east coast terminals as the Atlantic sea-
breeze pushes inland as well. Winds become light and variable
after 00Z.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 402 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

Light to moderate south-southeasterly winds to continue during the
first half of the work week. Only exception will be with Gulf
breezes bringing a shift to west-southwesterly flow winds over
the west coast each afternoon. Seas should remain around 1-2 ft,
except around thunderstorms, which could produce brief periods of
rough seas and gusty winds.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 402 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

Rip current risk will increase today and become moderate across
the West Palm Beach coastal waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            93  81  93  80 /  50  20  40  20
West Kendall     93  79  93  77 /  50  20  50  30
Opa-Locka        94  81  95  79 /  50  20  40  20
Homestead        92  80  93  79 /  50  10  40  20
Fort Lauderdale  92  81  92  80 /  50  20  40  20
N Ft Lauderdale  93  81  93  80 /  50  20  40  20
Pembroke Pines   96  82  96  81 /  50  20  40  20
West Palm Beach  94  79  93  78 /  50  20  40  20
Boca Raton       94  80  94  79 /  50  20  40  20
Naples           94  79  94  78 /  60  30  60  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening
     for FLZ063-066>068-070>075-168-172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...Hadi