Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
550 FXUS62 KMFL 261732 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 132 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 129 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026 - Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon into early evening. Locally heavy rain may lead to isolated instances of urban or poor drainage flooding. - Heat index values over 100 degrees will continue through the upcoming work week. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 129 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026 As advertised, winds across the region have shifted west- southwest this morning. Surface troughing is currently stretching south along the Atlantic coast from the Carolinas to Florida, slowly pushing east and diminishing the influence of the central Atlantic surface high. Meanwhile, the high pressure center over the Gulf looks to slide southward over the central Gulf through the next few days. This pattern will keep west to northwest flow over the Gulf waters and southwest Florida, but becoming more south to southwesterly over southeast Florida and the Atlantic waters. This increased westerly flow induced some coastal convergence induced showers and storms along Collier and Monroe counties this morning. However, the bulk of convection this afternoon will focus along the Atlantic sea breeze over interior and southeast Florida. Outflows from morning activity are currently pushing east across the metro. These outflows will interact with the sea-breeze over an environment that has been mostly clear and destabilizing through the morning. Steep low level lapse rates and plenty of CAPE (near 4000 J/kg) should allow for scattered to numerous to storms to develop over the Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach metro areas. The environment also remains quite moist, with PWATs between 2 and 2.2 inches. Although storm motions may be slightly quicker than yesterday, heavy and efficient rainfall will be the main threat. Guidance has actually trended a little bit less and a little bit more north for the rainfall threat this afternoon. HREF ensemble PMMs keep the highest rainfall amounts over the Palm Beach area and closer to the Lake Okeechobee region. Ensemble probabilities of greater than 2 inches of rainfall are highest over Palm Beach county, but only at around 30 to 40%. The Atlantic breeze will be able to push further inland over central Florida, so the best convergence and forcing may actually occur along the Lake breeze near the Martin and Palm Beach county lines. In any case, there is a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall for metro Dade, Broward and Palm Beach. Locally heavy rainfall amounts up to 3 to 5 inches may create urban flooding concerns, particularly for low lying and poor drainage areas. Lastly, as upper level shortwave features make their way east across the mid-Atlantic, a few vorticity impulses may be able to make their way south into Florida, which could help further invigorate thunderstorms this afternoon. As a result, the threat of a few strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out from any stronger and longer lived thunderstorms. Most storm activity should dissipate after sunset, with winds becoming more light and variable. CAMs are once again hinting at scattered shower activity across the coastal waters and becoming more numerous over the Florida Straits. PoPs for Monday have dropped into the 40 to 50% range, favoring interior and southeast Florida. Stronger westerly flow over the region may keep the Atlantic sea breeze pinned to the immediate coast or inhibit it from forming at all. Increased mid and upper level cloud cover may also keep the environment a little more stable than the last few days. Overall, ensemble guidance is showing only about 1 to 2 inches of rainfall from isolated to scattered storms. Heat indices will once again be in the 105 to 110 F range, keeping widespread Moderate HeatRisk throughout South Florida. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 103 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026 The unsettled pattern will remain across South FL for the remainder of the upcoming work week. A broad upper level trough will remain over New England and the Mid Atlantic, with surface and upper level high pressure over the central Atlantic. The trough will likely deepen across the eastern US as the week progresses as the high in the Atlantic noses to the west. The area of enhanced moisture is expected to remain across South FL for much of the week. With the low/mid level flow remaining westerly, this will result in above average PoPs across the east coast metro each day. While the rainfall will be much appreciated given the ongoing drought, will need to be on guard for the potential of urban and poor drainage flooding each day across the metro. Temperatures during the extended period will remain above normal, with high temps generally in the low to mid 90s and low temps ranging from the middle 70s over inland South FL to around 80 closer to the coasts. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 129 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026 Scattered thunderstorms expected across the metro today. Have included VCTS and TEMPOs for all eastern terminals through the mid afternoon where brief MVFR conditions may be present along with some gusty winds. Breezy WSW winds will persist through the rest of today, but become light and variable overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 103 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026 Gentle to moderate west/southwest breeze is expected across the Atlantic waters today, with moderate northwesterly winds across the Gulf. Seas in both the Atlantic and the Gulf will be a foot or less. Scattered thunderstorms over the area waters this morning and again late this evening may result in locally hazardous winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 77 92 78 92 / 30 60 20 50 West Kendall 74 92 75 92 / 30 60 20 40 Opa-Locka 77 93 78 94 / 30 50 20 50 Homestead 77 91 78 92 / 30 60 20 50 Fort Lauderdale 78 91 79 92 / 30 50 20 60 N Ft Lauderdale 78 92 78 92 / 30 50 20 60 Pembroke Pines 79 93 79 94 / 30 50 20 60 West Palm Beach 77 93 77 93 / 20 50 30 70 Boca Raton 76 91 77 92 / 20 50 30 70 Naples 79 91 80 90 / 40 30 40 40 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...NMP LONG TERM....CMF AVIATION...NMP