500
FXUS62 KMFL 011727
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1227 PM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1224 PM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

  - Chilly temperatures will remain in place across South Florida
    through the end of the week along with dry conditions.

  - Warmer temperatures will move into the region over the
    upcoming weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 752 AM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

As advertised, another chilly morning and start to the New Year across
South Florida as surface high pressure centered over the western
Gulf of America continues to provide a dry NW wind flow down the
Florida peninsula with little to no ocean modification. As the
high moves east to near Florida later today, the cold air
advection will diminish and result in slightly warmer high
temperatures today compared to yesterday. Nevertheless, I shaved
off a degree or two from today`s highs similar to yesterday and in
close agreement with the short-range model consensus. This still
gives us highs in the mid to upper 60s (perhaps approaching 70F in
Miami-Dade County and the southern Everglades).

Enhanced fire conditions are still likely today, but with the slow
modification of the cold airmass, the dewpoints won`t be as low so
the areas of concern are more confined to eastern portions of
South Florida.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 1203 AM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

Happy New Year! We start the year off cold across South FL with
surface high pressure over the Gulf allowing a dry northerly flow
across the area, as shown by our 00Z sounding which only had a PWAT
value of 0.25 inches. Mainly clear skies and nearly calm winds this
morning is allowing temps to plummet again. A Frost Advisory is in
effect until 9 AM for Glades, Hendry, inland Collier, and inland
Palm Beach. Some patchy frost will even be possible over western
portions of Miami-Dade and Broward early this morning.

Temps warm up quickly today until mostly sunny skies, however highs
this afternoon will remain well below normal, only reaching the
upper 60s to lower 70s. Not as cold tonight but remaining chilly
with overnight lows around 40 west and south of the lake, to around
50 closer to the coasts.

High pressure shifts over the area on Friday. Winds will remain
light and variable throughout the day. Skies will be partly cloudy
in the afternoon and high temps will reach the low to middle 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1203 AM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

As high pressure shifts east of the area this weekend, temps will
continue to moderate as the low level flow becomes more southerly.
High temps this weekend will be around normal in the upper 70s to
around 80. Overnight lows Saturday night will be in the 50s/60s.

Low pressure system over the southeast US will move off the Mid
Atlantic coast on Sunday, and a frontal boundary associated with
that system along with an upper level shortwave will cross South FL
late Sunday into early Monday. This will bring with it the only
chance of rainfall in the extended period on Sunday, albeit only
slight chance PoPs, and certainly nothing that will bring any relief
to the ongoing drought. Once the frontal boundary passes, high
pressure builds back into the region for the early part of next
week. Temperatures will remain right around normal through mid
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period.
Northwest winds will remain around 10 kts through this afternoon
before becoming light and variable tonight through Friday
morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1203 AM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

Moderate northerly winds today over the area waters become a light
to gentle west to southwest breeze on Friday. Seas 2-4 ft in the
Atlantic today and 1-2 ft in the Gulf.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1203 AM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

Lingering swell will result in an elevated risk of rip currents
today for the Palm Beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            51  73  55  76 /   0   0   0   0
West Kendall     45  74  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
Opa-Locka        50  74  54  77 /   0   0   0   0
Homestead        49  74  53  76 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  49  72  55  75 /   0   0   0   0
N Ft Lauderdale  50  72  55  76 /   0   0   0   0
Pembroke Pines   48  74  53  76 /   0   0   0   0
West Palm Beach  48  73  53  77 /   0   0   0   0
Boca Raton       49  74  54  77 /   0   0   0   0
Naples           51  73  58  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...CWC