019
FXUS62 KMFL 241855
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
255 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1250 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025

No major changes to the forecast this afternoon as the two sea
breezes currently work inland across the East Coast metro and
coastal Collier areas, and convection is set to begin developing.
Coverage today looks to favor the interior and southwest areas of
South Florida where the two sea breezes will meet, and some of these
storms could be strong to severe in nature as instability rapidly
increases, 500mb temperatures remain cool enough (-9 to -10C), and
lapse rates and DCAPE values all remain favorable for severe
convective development. The most likely threat will be strong
damaging wind gusts, but hail could also be possible early on with
some of the stronger storms. Heavy rainfall, locally gusty winds,
and frequent to excessive lightning will be possible with any storm.
High temperatures will be a few degrees cooler in large part due to
cloud cover during the afternoon hours.

Toward the late afternoon and early evening hours, sprawling outflow
boundaries could bring shower and thunderstorm activity back towards
the coasts (especially the Gulf coast) along the edge of expanding
cold pools. While this activity will likely not be intense as
daytime heating will be fading, cannot rule out some gusty winds as
the outflow boundary and broken line of showers and storms raises
offshore.

A similar pattern will play out on Sunday as mesoscale processes
once again dictate where the bulk of shower and thunderstorm
activity will occur. A few morning/early afternoon showers and
storms over both metros before the sea-breezes push inland and
activity congeals across the Everglades, inland SW Florida
communities, and Lake Okeechobee. Once again cannot rule out a few
showers and storms drifting back towards the coasts along sprawling
outflow boundaries during the late afternoon/early evening hours.

High temperatures this afternoon and on Sunday will range from the
upper 80s to low 90s across the area. Sharp fluctuations and
gradients in afternoon temperatures are indeed possible as shower
and thunderstorm activity (and resultant outflow boundaries) will
act to knock down temperatures from their diurnal peaks.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025

Light synoptic flow will allow for the greatest foci of convection
to reside across inland South Florida through early next week,
primarily across the Everglades and the Lake Okeechobee region each
afternoon. Pop-up showers and storms will still be possible across
both metro areas before the bulk of convective activity congeals
along boundary collisions inland during the mid to late afternoon
hours. With a lack of shear and dynamics aloft, storm mode will
primarily be multicellular in nature with large complexes of showers
and storms existing on boundary collisions. High temperatures will
remain cooler during this period, kept at bay by cloud cover and
shower and thunderstorms.

By late next week into the upcoming weekend, a cut-off low will
propagate southeastward across the Central United States and arrive
across the Gulf during the upcoming weekend. As this is towards the
tail end of the extended period, it is far too early to speculate on
how this feature may influence our weather regime, however this
feature and associated frontal boundary could bring a stormier
period to the region late in the week into the upcoming weekend as
surface flow turns more southerly and moisture increases


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025

Generally VFR through the period, with SHRA/TSRA developing inland
of the terminals later this afternoon. Impacts should remain
minimal for all sites, but short-fuse amendments could be issued
if needed. Sea breezes will prevail along both coastlines,
becoming light and variable overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1250 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025

Mostly benign marine conditions will persist through the remainder
of the work week into the upcoming weekend with light winds and seas
2 ft or less. Locally higher winds and waves will be possible in and
around any shower and thunderstorm activity.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1250 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025

The risk of rip currents remains elevated for Palm Beach county
beaches today as onshore flow returns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            79  89  80  90 /  20  30  20  40
West Kendall     77  91  76  92 /  20  30  20  40
Opa-Locka        78  92  78  92 /  20  30  20  40
Homestead        79  90  78  90 /  20  30  30  40
Fort Lauderdale  79  87  79  88 /  20  30  20  40
N Ft Lauderdale  78  88  78  89 /  20  30  20  50
Pembroke Pines   80  93  81  94 /  20  30  20  40
West Palm Beach  76  88  77  90 /  30  40  20  50
Boca Raton       77  90  78  91 /  30  30  20  50
Naples           73  91  75  90 /  30  60  30  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....Hadi
AVIATION...ATV