347
FXUS62 KMFL 071908
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
308 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1254 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025

A cold front across North Florida this afternoon will move SE down
the state as the lead shortwave associated with an eastern U.S.
longwave trough advances across the southeastern part of the
country. For this afternoon, South Florida will still be under the
influence of relatively dry southerly wind flow around the western
periphery of the Atlantic subtropical high. This will continue the
mainly dry and quite warm conditions for one more day. A lingering
east coast seabreeze impinging on the S-SW synoptic low-level
flow, along with slowly increasing moisture, may provide enough
forcing for a few showers late this afternoon across Palm Beach
and Broward counties. Chances of this occurring are on the low
side, and any rain amounts should stay under a quarter-inch. The
influence of increasingly gusty southerly winds will cause
temperatures this afternoon to reach the lower 90s over interior
sections of SE Florida, with the highest values across Glades and
Palm Beach counties, and mid/upper 80s elsewhere. Heat index will
be in the upper 90s over the interior.

Deeper moisture will spread into South Florida during the overnight
hours as the cold front moves across the eastern Gulf and central
Florida peninsula. Some upper-level forcing associated with the lead
shortwave will combine with the increasing low-mid level moisture to
trigger scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two moving
NE across South Florida during the pre-dawn hours.

The cold front will slow its southward progress on Tuesday as the
lead shortwave pulls away from Florida and the main longwave trough
axis lags behind over the western and central Gulf. As a result,
expect periods of showers and scattered thunderstorms to affect the
region throughout the day. It shouldn`t be an all-day washout, but
as the front progresses slowly eastward, SE Florida will have the
greatest chances of thunderstorms during the afternoon hours. A few
strong thunderstorms could occur in this area as increasing mid
level winds/bulk shear coincide with max CAPE values over 1000 J/kg.
Most likely rain amounts range from 0.5 to 1 inch over metro SE
Florida to around 0.25-0.5 inches across SW Florida. The development
of a surface low just off the SE Florida coast Tuesday afternoon
could help to focus heavier precipitation near or just offshore.
This, along with the slow movement of the front and associated
precipitation, means that a few spots could see higher amounts.
Latest NBM probabilistic guidance indicates about an 1 in 4 chance
of amounts greater than 2 inches over SE Florida, and LPMM guidance
suggesting possible isolated max of up to 4 inches. These amounts,
if materialized, could cause localized flooding.

Temperatures on Tuesday will remain warm and in the mid 80s across
SE Florida where the front will take longer to clear, with cooler
mid/upper 70s in SW Florida where post-front clouds and
precipitation will linger through the day.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 235 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025

The aforementioned cold front will gradually push off into the
western Atlantic on Tuesday night as the developing surface low
pressure begins to pull away to the northeast heading into
Wednesday. This will allow for scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms to hang around for a good portion of Tuesday night
before gradually diminishing across Southwest Florida early
Wednesday morning. Looking at the mid levels, the shortwave and
the trough axis will linger behind a bit further and it will take
until Wednesday night to push offshore. As winds aloft shift and
become west northwesterly, drier air will start to push in across
the mid to upper levels, however, plenty of lower level moisture
will remain in place during this time frame. This could trigger
off some scattered shower activity along the east coast as well
as the Atlantic waters through the day on Wednesday. Until the
trough axis pushes offshore, there will still be enough lift and
instability in place to support an isolated thunderstorm or two
over the immediate east coast as well as the Atlantic waters. High
temperatures on Wednesday will be cooler than what they have been
recently as they will rise into the upper 70s and lower 80s across
most areas.

While similar conditions are anticipated on Thursday, with the
loss of mid level support, the chances of thunderstorms will be
extremely limited. Enough lower level moisture will still remain
in place for some isolated shower activity mainly over the
Atlantic waters as well as the immediate east coast. High
temperatures on Thursday will be a tad warmer as they rise to
around 80 along the immediate east coast to the mid 80s across
interior portions of Southwest Florida.

Heading towards the end of the week, a deeper and more amplified
trough will push across the eastern Seaboard heading into Friday
and early Saturday morning. At the surface, a broad area of low
pressure will push into the Mid Atlantic region as Friday
progresses. The cold front associated with this system will
gradually push through the Southeast and into Northern Florida
later on Friday. The latest global and ensemble guidance suite is
in relatively good agreement with pushing this front across the
rest of the Florida Peninsula sometime on Friday night into early
Saturday morning. Guidance is also in good agreement in showing
that this will be a weakening frontal boundary as it pushes
through South Florida and it will not have much in the way of
moisture to work with as it moves through. What will be noticeable
is the change in sensible weather behind the front across South
Florida for the upcoming weekend. There will be the potential for
a much drier and cooler air mass to build in over the upcoming
weekend as high pressure builds into the region and cold air
advection takes place along an increasing northerly wind flow.
Temperatures will have the possibility of being below
climatological normals heading into the upcoming weekend. This
will continue to monitored as the week progresses.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1254 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025

Outside of an isolated SHRA in the PBI area between 20z-00z, VFR
conditions expected for the first half of the forecast period. An
approaching cold front will begin to cause period of MVFR
conditions in SHRA after 06z advancing from SW to NE across the
area. Most likely time frame of MVFR conditions will be after 12z,
with a few TSRA also possible but more likely beyond this forecast
period. Winds 150-170 degrees at 15 knots with gusts to 25 knots
through 00z, diminishing to 200-230 degrees 10 knots after 00z,
shifting to 290-310 degrees after 12z at KAPF.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1254 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025

Gusty S-SW winds ahead of the front today will diminish as the front
approaches late tonight and early Tuesday, then shift to NW-N 15
knots later on Tuesday. North Winds increase to near 20 knots
Wednesday night as low pressure forms near the Bahamas, then staying
N-NE 10-15 knots for most of the remainder of the week as high
pressure builds into Florida and the local waters. A moderate north
swell is forecast to move into the Atlantic waters Wednesday night
and Thursday, which will likely build seas to small craft advisory
levels during that time frame. Showers and thunderstorms will affect
local waters late tonight through Wednesday, followed by mostly dry
conditions.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1254 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025

The rip current risk will increase along the Gulf beaches tonight
through Wednesday due to moderate westerly/onshore winds. The rip
current risk will then increase at the Atlantic beaches late
Wednesday through the remainder of the week as a combination of NE
winds and a moderate northerly swell affect the local waters. Surf
could become locally rough Wednesday and Thursday, especially along
the Palm Beach County coast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            74  87  65  81 /  30  70  60  30
West Kendall     71  87  63  84 /  30  70  60  20
Opa-Locka        73  87  64  83 /  30  70  60  30
Homestead        73  87  65  82 /  30  60  60  30
Fort Lauderdale  73  84  65  79 /  30  70  60  30
N Ft Lauderdale  73  86  65  79 /  30  70  60  30
Pembroke Pines   74  87  65  83 /  30  70  60  30
West Palm Beach  71  83  64  78 /  40  70  60  30
Boca Raton       72  85  64  80 /  40  70  60  30
Naples           71  79  62  80 /  60  60  30   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ650-670.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Molleda
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...Molleda