943
FXUS62 KMFL 251809
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
209 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 146 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

 - Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon into early evening.
   Locally heavy rain may lead to isolated instances of urban or
   poor drainage flooding.

 - Chances of rain increase for eastern metro areas to begin next
   week. There is a Marginal Risk of urban flooding on Sunday for
   metro Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach.

 - Heat index values of 103-108 expected today, with similar heat
   indices expected each day through the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 146 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

The next few afternoons, including today, will trend more active in
terms of thunderstorm activity across South Florida. Recent KMIA
ACARs sounding data continues to show a pretty moist environment,
with PWATs around 2 inches. The overall atmospheric profile looks a
little more saturated than the last couple of days, which should
contribute to some efficient rainfall producing storms. Very weak
steering flow between the surface and 500 mb will lead to slow and
erratic thunderstorm motions, increasing the threat of locally heavy
rainfall. Confidence for any severe threats is low, but some
lingering mid-level dry air may aid in creating a few strong
downdrafts. Current satellite imagery shows a pretty expansive Cu
field already developing across South Florida, with a few of
thunderstorms along the sea breeze. Steep low level lapse rates
and plenty of surface CAPE should allow for scattered to numerous
thunderstorms to materialize through the early evening. Most
activity will generally be quick hitting pop up thunderstorms
developing along sea-breeze and outflow boundary interactions, but
a few cell mergers could create some stronger storms,
particularly over interior South Florida. The overall flow today
will generally be south to southeasterly, so CAMs are indicating
that storm activity may trend northward towards Lake Okeechobee by
early evening as the Atlantic and Gulf sea-breezes continue to
push inland. Rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour over the
metro areas may cause localized urban flooding concerns,
particularly over low lying and poor drainage locations.

Synoptically, most of Florida still finds itself under the eastward
extension of an upper level ridge currently positioned over the
western CONUS. With H5 heights near 594 dam and warm southerly flow,
many areas will continue to see near Heat Advisory conditions this
afternoon and tomorrow. Overall, widespread moderate HeatRisk is
expected across most of South Florida. At the surface, high
pressure continues to strengthen over the northern Gulf, while
weak surface troughing extends southward across the Atlantic coast
from the Carolinas. As the Gulf surface high begins to shift more
south, this pattern will allow for winds over South Florida to
shift more southwesterly to begin the next week. As a result, the
majority of thunderstorm activity for Sunday afternoon will focus
along the Atlantic breeze and over the eastern metro areas. Once
again, the environment will be moist and storms will be slow
moving, leading to more heavy and efficient rainfall. The Weather
Prediction Center has outlined a Marginal Risk of Excessive
Rainfall for the Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach metro areas where
localized urban flooding will be a concern, particularly over poor
drainage and low lying areas. HREF ensemble probabilities are
currently showing about a 30 to 40% chance of some areas receiving
greater than 2 inches of rainfall during the afternoon. A
reasonable worst case scenario would be scattered areas seeing
heavier amounts of 3 to 5 inches. Outside of heavy rainfall,
frequent lightning and gusty winds will be possible with any
storm.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 102 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

The unsettled pattern will remain across South FL for much of the
upcoming work week. A broad upper level trough will remain over New
England and the Mid Atlantic, with surface and upper level high
pressure over the west/central Atlantic. This will trap an area of
enhanced moisture across South FL. With the low/mid level flow
remaining westerly much of the week, this will result in above
average PoPs across the east coast metro each day. While the
rainfall will be much appreciated given the ongoing drought, will
need to be on guard for the potential of urban and poor drainage
flooding each day across the metro.

Temperatures during the extended period will remain above normal,
with high temps generally in the low to mid 90s and low temps
ranging from the middle 70s over inland South FL to around 80 closer
to the coasts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 146 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Scattered to numerous storms are already ongoing and expected to
persist through the afternoon, mainly across interior South
Florida. Have included VCTS and TEMPOs for all eastern sites as
storm activity develops along sea breeze and outflow boundary
collisions. Brief MVFR conditions and strong wind gusts may be
occur with any storm. Activity looks to dissipate during the
evening and winds become light and variable. Winds will shift more
southwesterly across the region by tomorrow morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 102 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Gentle southerly breeze expected across the Atlantic waters today,
with gentle west to southwest breeze across the Gulf. Scattered
thunderstorms today may result in locally hazardous winds and seas.
Outside of convection, seas will be 2 ft or less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            79  92  77  92 /  30  70  40  70
West Kendall     75  92  75  92 /  30  70  40  70
Opa-Locka        78  93  78  93 /  30  70  40  70
Homestead        78  92  77  92 /  20  70  40  70
Fort Lauderdale  79  92  78  91 /  30  70  40  70
N Ft Lauderdale  79  92  78  92 /  30  70  40  70
Pembroke Pines   80  94  79  93 /  30  70  40  70
West Palm Beach  77  93  77  92 /  20  70  40  60
Boca Raton       78  91  77  91 /  30  70  40  60
Naples           79  91  80  91 /  20  50  50  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NMP
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...NMP