675
FXUS62 KMFL 221133
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
733 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 104 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Hurricane Erin will continue racing NE away from the US over the
next couple days, while a stationary frontal boundary will sit along
the northern Gulf coastline over to the SE US coast. Locally, light
westerly winds will remain in place through Saturday, although the
east coast sea-breeze will try to make a brief push inland each day
during the afternoon. Scattered showers and storms are expected
mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours today and
Saturday. The east coast sea-breeze will aid in additional
development of storms across the metro mid to late afternoon. A few
stronger storms are possible, with gusty winds being the main
threat. With the sea-breeze pinned near the Atlantic coast today,
the possibility of multiple storms developing over the same area
will present an urban/poor drainage flooding risk today.

The MM 39 wildfire is still burning in western Broward despite the
area seeing a little bit of rain yesterday. This means some
localized areas of smoke will continue to impact some suburbs in
western Broward through early afternoon, and then some relief may
come from winds shifting to the SE in the afternoon and the
potential for more rainfall over the site.

High temps today and Saturday will range from the low to mid 90s
over the metro, to mid and upper 90s over inland South FL. While
heat indices this afternoon may reach advisory criteria, storm
coverage should prevent most areas from remaining at criteria for at
least a couple hours, so no headlines are currently planned. Low
temps tonight will range from the middle 70s over inland South FL,
to around 80 closer to the coasts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 104 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

For the end of the weekend into early next week, a trough will dig
into the eastern US. A surface boundary associated with a system in
eastern Canada will push into the SE US by Monday, and then settle
north of Lake Okeechobee by the middle of the week. The
predominately westerly flow will continue through early next week
which will result in the highest PoPs favoring the eastern half of
the forecast area, and then easterly flow returns by mid week which
will result in a more typical summertime pattern with the highest
PoPs favoring inland and SW FL.

Temperatures through the extended period will remain above normal
with highs in the 90s each day, and low temps ranging from the
middle 70s to around 80.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 730 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Light and variable winds will gradually increase out of the WSW
after 15z across all terminals and will remain around 10 kts
through the afternoon. These winds may shift and become SSE
across the east coast terminals after 19z as the sea breeze
slowly tries to push inland. Scattered showers and storms will
develop as the day progresses with periods of MVFR or IFR being
possible during the late afternoon hours across the east coast
terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 104 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds are expected over the
local waters through the weekend. 3-6 ft seas in the Atlantic today
subside to 2-5 ft for the weekend. Gulf waters will remain 2 ft or
less. Scattered thunderstorms are possible each day which may result
in locally hazardous winds and seas.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 104 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

A lingering NE swell associated with Hurricane Erin will result in a
high risk of rip currents for the Atlantic waters through
Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            93  79  94  79 /  60  30  60  20
West Kendall     93  77  94  77 /  50  20  60  20
Opa-Locka        95  79  95  78 /  60  30  60  20
Homestead        93  77  93  78 /  50  20  50  20
Fort Lauderdale  93  79  93  78 /  60  30  60  30
N Ft Lauderdale  93  79  93  78 /  60  30  70  30
Pembroke Pines   96  79  96  79 /  60  30  60  20
West Palm Beach  95  77  93  77 /  70  40  70  30
Boca Raton       96  77  95  78 /  60  40  70  30
Naples           92  80  92  80 /  50  20  50  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday afternoon for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...CWC