475
FXUS62 KMFL 090513
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
113 AM EDT Sat May 9 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 105 AM EDT Sat May 9 2026

    - High probabilities of heat-related impacts across urban
      areas through Monday. Residents and visitors with outdoor
      plans should take precautions to avoid heat-related
      illness.

- Rain chances slowly increase this weekend, and then further increase
      early next week as a frontal boundary approaches the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 105 AM EDT Sat May 9 2026

Mid level high pressure is over western Cuba this morning and will
slide to the northeast over the Bahamas on Sunday. Meanwhile at the
surface, a stationary boundary remains over northern FL. This
frontal boundary is expected to dissipate by the end of Sunday.

The main story this weekend will be the heat and humidity. Light
southerly winds will allow low level moisture to slowly increase
throughout the weekend. Dewpoints near the coasts will be in the low
to mid 70s and upper 60s to lower 70s over the interior. 850 mb
temps will be roughly +18 to +20C. Afternoon high temps today and
Sunday will be in the lower 90s across the east and west coast metro
areas, with mid to upper 90s over the interior. The heat combined
with the humidity will result in afternoon heat indices over 100-105
over much of the area. While heat headlines are not expected at this
time, this early season heat and humidity will still result in major
to locally extreme impacts across the metro according to the NWS
experimental HeatRisk. Anyone with outdoor activities will want to
take precautions to protect against the heat.

Most of today will remain rain-free, however some late day showers
and isolated thunderstorms may pop up along the sea breezes. As low
level moisture increases further on Sunday, there will be a better
chance for showers and storms during the afternoon and early
evening, especially over interior locations.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 105 AM EDT Sat May 9 2026

Early next week, an upper level trough will eject out of the
southern plains and move across the Gulf, with the trough axis
eventually moving east of our region by mid week. This trough will
also help push a frontal boundary across the area late Monday into
early Tuesday, eventually settling south of the area over the
Straits. This will keep the threat of showers and thunderstorms in
the forecast through at least Wednesday, with drier conditions
expected for the end of the work week.

Temperatures are expected to remain above normal next week, with
highs generally ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s across the
metro, to low and middle 90s over the interior. Overnight lows will
be in the 60s/70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 105 AM EDT Sat May 9 2026

Light and variable winds this morning becoming SE 10-15 kts this
afternoon, with a westerly Gulf breeze this afternoon at APF. An
isolated thunderstorm is possible late in the day.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 105 AM EDT Sat May 9 2026

Mostly benign marine conditions this weekend with gentle to moderate
southerly winds. An isolated thunderstorm can`t be ruled out. Seas
generally a foot or less in the Gulf and 2 ft or less in the
Atlantic.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 105 AM EDT Sat May 9 2026

Min RH values over interior South FL will fall into the mid to
upper 30 percent range this afternoon. While winds will remain
light and RH values should remain above critical thresholds, the
hot and dry conditions combined with very good to locally
excellent dispersions may result in an enhanced fire risk this
afternoon over interior locations.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            92  79  91  80 /   0  10  10   0
West Kendall     94  75  93  77 /   0   0  10   0
Opa-Locka        93  78  93  79 /  10  10  10   0
Homestead        91  78  91  79 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  90  80  89  80 /  10  10  10   0
N Ft Lauderdale  91  79  90  79 /  10  10  10   0
Pembroke Pines   95  80  94  80 /  10  10  10   0
West Palm Beach  92  79  91  79 /  10  10  20  10
Boca Raton       90  80  89  81 /  10  10  10   0
Naples           91  75  92  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...CMF