Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
945 FXUS62 KMFL 300511 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 111 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 110 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Early this morning, some scattered thunderstorms continue to develop along a surface trough going down through the middle of the state, with some fairly impressive rainfall rates in Glades county prompting a flood advisory in the Palmdale area. Hi-res models are having a poor time capturing this activity and want to dissipate it too quickly. Do believe this activity around the lake will dissipate before sunrise, but may linger another few hours in the meantime. Upper level high pressure will continue to sit over the region today and Thursday, which will keep mid and upper level dry air in place. PWAT values will still be 1.8-2.0 inches despite the upper level dry air in place, thanks to a continuing moist SE low level flow off the Atlantic. Typical summertime pattern expected the next couple days with occasional overnight/early morning coastal showers, and afternoon/early evening showers and thunderstorms aided by the east and west coast sea-breezes. Temps will continue to be several degrees above normal with highs ranging from the lower 90s across the east coast metro, to mid and upper 90s over inland and SW FL. The heat combined with mid to upper 70s dewpoints will result in heat indices of 105-110 during the afternoon hours. As has been the case the past several days we`ll be near heat advisory criteria, however HREF probs remain below 10% for exceeding criteria, and while there were some observation sites that met criteria yesterday, the bulk of the area did not. Opting to hold off again for today, but once again the messaging will remain the same, that anyone with outdoor plans will need to stay hydrated and take plenty of breaks. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 110 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 The ridge starts to break down the end of the week into the weekend as a trough starts to dig in the eastern US. Surface high pressure building into the great lakes region will help push a frontal boundary in the SE US down to roughly northern FL before stalling. This will result in an increase of mid/upper level moisture across South FL. While the overall pattern of convection will continue to follow a typical summertime pattern across South FL, expect a greater coverage of storms during the afternoon and early evening hours, especially on Sunday into early next week, although highest PoPs each day will continue to favor inland and SW FL. Temperatures will remain above normal through the extended period, with highs each day ranging from the lower 90s across the east coast metro, to mid and upper 90s over inland and SW FL. Low temps will range from the middle 70s over inland South FL to around 80 closer to the coasts. Each day will continue to flirt with heat advisory criteria, with max heat indices of 105-110. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 102 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Light and variable winds this morning becoming SE around 10 kts after 15Z, with a westerly gulf breeze this afternoon at APF. SCT thunderstorms this afternoon into early evening may result in brief flight restrictions and erratic winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 110 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Gentle southeasterly winds will prevail through the weekend, with west to southwesterly winds over the Gulf waters developing each afternoon. Seas generally a foot or less in both the Atlantic and Gulf waters. Scattered thunderstorms are expected each day, which may result in locally hazardous winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 93 80 93 80 / 20 10 20 10 West Kendall 94 76 93 77 / 20 10 20 10 Opa-Locka 95 79 95 80 / 20 10 20 0 Homestead 92 78 92 79 / 20 10 20 0 Fort Lauderdale 92 80 92 80 / 20 10 20 10 N Ft Lauderdale 93 80 93 81 / 20 10 20 10 Pembroke Pines 97 81 96 82 / 20 10 20 10 West Palm Beach 94 78 93 78 / 30 10 20 10 Boca Raton 95 78 94 79 / 20 10 20 10 Naples 92 79 93 80 / 30 10 30 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CMF LONG TERM....CMF AVIATION...CMF