938
FXUS62 KMFL 172257
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
657 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE/SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 655 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

This afternoon`s round of showers and thunderstorms (a few of
which were marginally severe) over SW Florida have dissipated
and/or moved north of Lake Okeechobee. The remainder of the night
should be mostly dry, with perhaps a few showers over the Atlantic
making it to the east coast.

Friday-Saturday: strong and deep-layered high pressure east of
the Bahamas today will move west and dominate the local weather
regime Friday through the weekend. A consensus of the models
continue to indicate 500 mb heights at or near record-high levels
for the date (595-597 dm) over South and Central Florida Friday
and Saturday, along with 850-700 mb temperatures well above the
90th percentile of climatology. The end result is decreasing
convection and rain chances below climatological normals for mid-
July. Interior and SW Florida PoPs are mostly in the 30-35% range,
and 20% or less SE Florida metro with lower PoPs Saturday vs
Friday as the high center moves over the peninsula.

Main concern for Friday and Saturday continues to be higher heat
index values potentially meeting Heat Advisory criteria. The
synoptic pattern and temperature profile described above is
conducive for higher than normal temperatures along with
seasonably high dewpoints. Adjusted high temperatures slightly
higher than the NBM mean on Friday, closer to the 75th percentile
which may still be rather conservative in some areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 335 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

The strong low/mid-level ridging and drier mid-level air will
persist through the weekend and so will the lower rain chances and
high temps/heat indices. WPC guidance based on forecast highs and
ensemble spread indicates a greater than 50% chance that max heat
indices will exceed 110 across the western half of south Florida
and exceed 105 across the eastern half each day. By next week, the
dry mid-level air will shift west of south Florida and rain
chances will start to increase once again to seasonable levels.
With deep layer ridging prevailing, expect the primary forcing
mechanism for convection to be the seabreeze. There are some
indications that a surface low resultant from Lee Cyclogenesis
near the Mid-Atlantic will advect SW across the northern part of
Florida early to mid-week. While this most likely won`t directly
impact south Florida, it could disrupt the easterly flow regime
and result in convection across a larger portion of the region
rather than mostly across the western half.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 647 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

As afternoon TSRA has mostly dissipated over South Florida, VFR
conditions will prevail through most of the forecast period. A few
SHRA are possible at the east coast sites in the night/morning
hours, but not enough confidence to include in TAF at this time.
Scattered TSRA redevelop over interior and Gulf coast after 19z
Friday, but not as numerous as past days so VCTS at KAPF should
suffice for now. Wind 110-120 degrees 8-11 knots tonight,
increasing to 13-15 kt with gusts near 20 kt east coast after 14z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 335 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Cautionary level winds will be possible over Atlantic waters
through the first half of the day today. As the calmer center of the
subtropical ridge draws nearer winds will subside below headline
levels once again. Showers and thunderstorms remain likely again
today but a period of drier conditions is expected beginning
tomorrow and lasting into the weekend.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 222 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

The rip current risk will continue to increase at the Atlantic
beaches over the next couple of days with the moderate to fresh
onshore winds. As a result, a high risk of rip currents is
becoming more likely for Friday and remain elevated through
Saturday before decreasing Sunday and early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            81  92  80  91 /  10  20  10  10
West Kendall     78  92  78  92 /  10  20  10  10
Opa-Locka        81  94  80  93 /  20  20  10  10
Homestead        81  91  81  90 /  10  20  20  10
Fort Lauderdale  81  91  80  90 /  20  10  10  10
N Ft Lauderdale  81  92  80  91 /  30  10  10  10
Pembroke Pines   83  95  82  95 /  20  20  10  10
West Palm Beach  80  92  78  91 /  30  10   0  10
Boca Raton       80  93  79  92 /  30  10  10  10
Naples           78  95  77  94 /  50  40  10  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE/SHORT TERM...Molleda
LONG TERM....Harrigan
AVIATION...Molleda