212
FXUS62 KMFL 041108
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
708 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 314 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Unsettled weather conditions continue today and Saturday as abundant
moisture advection will keep high POPs/Wx coverage in place for
this afternoon. Ensembles depict a lingering frontal boundary over
northern Florida, keeping SSW flow across SoFlo through the rest
of the weekend.

MFL 00Z sounding data show PWATs over 2 inches and a saturated
(skinny CAPE) vertical profile through 12 km. And with little
changes expected, there will be plenty of moisture available to
combine with daytime heating and produce rounds of showers and
thunderstorms each day. High-res and ensemble solutions suggest that
there may not be a strong or dominant east coast sea breeze as the
SSW flow dominates the synoptic flow. This will again keep the best
chances for thunderstorms across the Atlantic metro areas and the
Lake region. And as in the past two days, expect outflow boundaries
to become focal points for deeper convection and stronger cells.

Meanwhile, the National Hurricane Center continues to closely
monitor the potential development of a weak low along the
aforementioned front with models now showing a 60 percent chance
(high chance) of tropical or subtropical development during the
weekend. However, regardless of the final outcome, expect continuing
rounds of showers and thunderstorms, with global models depicting
widespread rain across SoFlo. High-res/CAMs keep rainfall totals in
the 2-3" range through the weekend. Periods of heavy rain,
especially with training of cells or terrain anchoring, may
result in localized urban flooding. LPMM estimates show possible
isolated accumulation values of up to 5 inches with the heaviest
or long- lasting downpours. A few overnight showers or isolated
thunderstorms can`t be ruled out.

The prevailing cloud cover and rain activity today will help in
keeping afternoon highs today in the mid to upper 80s. Saturday may
see longer periods of sunshine before convection initiation,
which will allow for highs to reach the upper 80s to low 90s. Heat
indices will likely reach the upper 90s to low 100s, with muggy
conditions extending into the nighttime hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 314 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Latest deterministic guidance shows better agreement in the
development of a low pressure system somewhere in the coastal waters
off SE Seaboard during the weekend. The caveat with the latest
guidance is that even with he system materializing, its track should
push it further N or NE from Florida early next week. This should
also weaken and eventually lift/dissipate the frontal boundary
stalled over the northern portions of the peninsula. This in turn
will allow for the high pressure ridge over the west Atlantic to
expand and return to the area during the long term.

As the ridge axis lifts back into the state, moisture will slowly
decrease, along with returning SE flow. This will result in a
gradual transition to a more typical summer pattern, wit the SE flow
favoring interior and western areas of SoFlo for best chances of
afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day. Main hazards will
continue to be potential for heavy rain, strong gusty winds and
lightning strikes.

Seasonably warm temperatures will continue each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 707 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

VCTS around APF will linger through the morning hours, while VFR
prevails over the Atl terminals until around 14Z. Light and
variable winds will remain generally SSW today at around 10kt.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms may result in reduced
vis and cigs, mainly after 17Z. Short-fuse amendments may be
required for periods of significant restrictions.&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 328 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Winds will remain from the south-southwest today as a frontal
boundary remains stalled over northern Florida. Scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day through
early next week. Seas will remain around 2 feet in general over all
South Florida waters through the forecast period. Only exception
will be around thunderstorms, which could produce brief periods of
rough seas and gusty, erratic winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            87  77  90  78 /  70  50  50  20
West Kendall     87  74  90  75 /  80  50  50  30
Opa-Locka        90  78  92  78 /  80  50  60  20
Homestead        89  77  90  78 /  80  60  50  30
Fort Lauderdale  87  77  90  78 /  80  50  60  20
N Ft Lauderdale  87  77  90  78 /  90  60  60  20
Pembroke Pines   90  79  93  80 /  80  50  60  20
West Palm Beach  87  76  90  76 /  90  60  70  20
Boca Raton       90  77  92  77 /  90  60  60  20
Naples           87  77  88  77 /  90  50  60  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...Rizzuto