094
FXUS62 KMFL 230504
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
104 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 101 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

 - Scattered thunderstorms today will focus mainly over interior
   and SW FL. Increasing rain chances this weekend into early next
   week.

 - Heat index values will range from 100-105 across Southeast
   Florida and up to 105-110 across Southwest Florida this
   afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 101 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Bertha will continue to slide to the west today across Louisiana and
if it holds together should reach SE TX by late tonight. Meanwhile,
weak surface high pressure will set up in the NE Gulf today, and an
upper level low will be south of eastern Cuba. Locally, some coastal
showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected this morning across
the Atlantic coast, and then afternoon and early evening showers and
storms will develop over inland and SW FL. High temps will be in the
low to middle 90s today, with max heat indices of 103-108. Low
confidence that heat advisory criteria will be met for at least two
hours, so at this point no headlines are planned.

Mainly dry conditions expected overnight with just some occasional
coastal showers possible. Low temps will range from the low to mid
70s over inland South FL, to upper 70s and low 80s closer to the
coasts.

On Friday the upper low will slide towards the Yucatan while the
surface high over the NE Gulf will slide westward along the northern
Gulf coast. Forecast soundings and global models show deeper
moisture moving into South FL. This will increase PoPs across the
area, although with low level easterly flow continuing, the highest
chances for showers and storms will remain over interior and SW FL,
with just chance PoPs across the east coast metro. High temps will
be in the lower 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 101 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

As we look towards the weekend and into the beginning of next week,
upper level ridging will build into the western US, while troughing
deepens over the eastern US and western Atlantic. This will allow a
series of fronts to drop down from the northern Plains towards the
Southeast US coast before dissipating. A stream of enhanced deeper
level moisture will set up across South FL the end of this weekend
into next week as it gets squeezed between the trough in the eastern
US and high pressure in the central Atlantic. Another noticeable
difference during this time period is that the low level flow across
South FL will become more westerly starting Sunday and lasting
through at least the early part of next week. This will bring the
focus of convection each afternoon into early evening more into the
east coast metro, resulting in higher than normal PoPs each day.
While the rainfall is certainly welcome news given the ongoing
drought conditions across the area, will need to be on the lookout
for localized urban and poor drainage flooding each day.

Temperatures during the extended period will remain above normal,
with highs each day generally in the low to mid 90s. Heat indices of
105-110 will be possible each day, but with the increased rainfall
chances it`ll be tough to reach criteria for at least 2 hours each
day, so any hazard decisions will likely be made on a day by day
basis.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 101 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

VFR this morning across South FL. Easterly winds 5-10 kts this
morning increase to 10-15 kts this afternoon. Scattered
thunderstorms later today will focus over interior and SW FL,
which may impact APF late in the day.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 101 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible each day through the
upcoming weekend which may result in locally hazardous winds and
seas. Outside of convection, moderate ENE breeze today in the
Atlantic waters with light and variable winds in the Gulf. Seas 1-3
ft in the Gulf and 1-2 ft in the Atlantic.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 101 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Moderate easterly flow today will result in an elevated risk of rip
currents along the east coast beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            93  80  92  80 /  20  40  30  20
West Kendall     93  77  93  77 /  30  40  40  20
Opa-Locka        94  80  93  80 /  20  40  40  20
Homestead        92  79  92  80 /  30  50  30  20
Fort Lauderdale  91  81  91  81 /  20  50  30  20
N Ft Lauderdale  91  80  91  81 /  20  50  40  20
Pembroke Pines   93  81  93  81 /  20  40  40  20
West Palm Beach  92  79  91  79 /  20  60  40  10
Boca Raton       90  80  90  80 /  20  50  50  20
Naples           94  77  92  78 /  40  20  80  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...CMF