292
FXUS62 KMFL 111839
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
239 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 231 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

    - Hot and humid again today, with afternoon heat indices
      around 100 over most of South FL.

- Scattered thunderstorms possible this afternoon into early
      evening, with chances increasing each day through mid week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 231 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

South Florida will moisten up over the next few days, increasing
chances of precipitation across the area and bringing a pause to the
dry and anomalously warm conditions we have been observing over the
past week. However, mid and upper level water vapor satellite
imagery, along with ACARS soundings from KMIA, still show a large
swath of dry and stable air in the 500 to 700 mb layer. Yesterday
afternoon`s 18Z and 00Z MFL soundings showed that this dry layer was
a bit stronger than what model soundings were showing, which mostly
likely hindered thunderstorm maturity. Upper level troughing over
the SE CONUS today will increase relative humidity aloft over
much of the region and continued southerly flow will moisten up
the lower levels, bringing PWATs into the 1.7 to 1.9 inch range.
Lessening influence from the surface high over the western
Atlantic and the upper level ridge over the Caribbean should allow
for slightly greater coverage of storms and showers this
afternoon. However, still suspect that model soundings are under-
doing the dry layer, which will contribute to some meager mid-
level lapse rates. Still, current mesoanalysis is showing DCAPE
values around 1200 J/kg and with very steep low level laps rates.
With these ingredients in place, sea breeze boundary collisions
over the Everglades will produce scattered to numerous storms,
with gusty winds being the main threat. There is a Marginal Risk
(level 1 of 5) for strong to damaging wind gusts for the Lake O
region, including parts of Glades, Hendry, and Palm Beach
counties. Elsewhere, frequent lightning will be the main concern.
However, breezy outflow boundaries from storms may create erratic
fire behavior for any active wildfires. Storm activity will wane
after sunset and winds will become more light and variable. As a
result of lighter winds, wildfire smoke may linger over parts of
western metro Miami-Dade and Broward. Those with sensitivity to
smoke and low air quality should limit outdoor exposure during
smoky conditions.


The coverage and threat for storms will be a bit greater tomorrow
due to increased forcing from a frontal boundary moving south across
the state during the day. The main trough axis of a southern stream
shortwave trough will be crossing overhead during the late afternoon
and evening period, which will help provide more favorable dynamics
and ascent for storms. Model soundings continue to show an increase
in moisture over the region, with PWATs climbing into the 2 to
2.1 inch range. The previously mentioned mid level dry layer will
continue to erode, leading to a more moist profile overall and
with more tall and skinny CAPE. As a result, there is increasing
confidence on the coverage and threat of thunderstorms for
tomorrow afternoon. SPC has once again put us in a Marginal Risk
(Level 1 of 5) for strong to damaging wind gusts for interior and
eastern portions of South Florida. Bulk layer shear of 40 kts
along with ML CAPE near 2500 J/kg should be favorable to sustain
strong thunderstorms. Severe wise, strong downburst winds will be
the main concern, but some small hail may possible as 500 mb temps
look to drop into the -7 through -8 range. With such a moist
environment, there is an increased threat of locally heavy
rainfall, with some isolated amounts of 4 to 5 inches of rain
possible. If one of these stronger storms does develop over the
metro area, minor urban flooding impacts may be observed.

Unfortunately, the forecast rainfall will provide little relief to
the widespread Severe (D2) and Extreme (D3) drought across the
majority of South Florida. As a result, fuels and grasses across the
area will still be very dry and continue to feed any active wildfire
that are not put out by showers. The dominant wind pattern will
shift easterly for late Tuesday and into Wednesday, before sifting
back westerly for the middle part of the week.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 102 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026

South FL weather will remain unsettled through mid week as the
frontal boundary slides south of the area and settles along the
Straits, however the mid/upper level trough will remain over the
region until late in the week before finally moving off to the east
along with a backdoor front sliding across the state. Upper level
ridging will start to build back in for the weekend. Highest PoPs
will be on Wednesday and Thursday and then gradual drying is
expected for the end of the work week and at least first part of the
weekend.

Temperatures during the extended period will remain above normal,
with highs generally ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s across
the metro regions, and low to mid 90s over the interior. Low temps
each night will be in the 60s/70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 231 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

VFR conditions expected for all sites through the period. Breezy
southeasterly wind for most eastern sites this afternoon, while a
Gulf breeze will develop for KAPF. Scattered storms will develop
over interior portions of South Florida this afternoon, but there
is only a low chance for any impacts at airports, so have left in
VCTS in the TAF. Winds become more light and variable tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 102 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026

Scattered thunderstorms are expected over the area waters each day
this week, which may result in locally hazardous winds and seas.
Outside of convection, fairly benign conditions expected with light
southerly winds today. Seas generally 2 ft or less in the Atlantic
and a foot or less in the Gulf.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            76  89  76  88 /  20  60  60  80
West Kendall     73  91  73  89 /  20  60  50  80
Opa-Locka        76  90  75  89 /  30  60  70  80
Homestead        76  89  75  88 /  10  50  60  70
Fort Lauderdale  77  87  77  86 /  30  60  70  90
N Ft Lauderdale  76  87  75  86 /  30  60  70  90
Pembroke Pines   77  92  77  90 /  30  60  70  90
West Palm Beach  75  88  75  86 /  40  70  70  90
Boca Raton       77  87  77  86 /  30  70  70  90
Naples           74  91  73  90 /   0  20  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NMP
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...NMP