821
FXUS62 KMFL 070616
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
216 AM EDT Wed May 7 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 210 AM EDT Wed May 7 2025

Models remain in fair agreement in bringing mid-levgel ridging
across the area to start the forecast period, along with warmer
500mb temps and a decrease in moisture over SoFlo. Meanwhile, latest
sfc analyses depict a stationary/decaying frontal boundary
lingering over the SE CONUS and northern Florida. This synoptic
scenario will help in decreasing shower and storm activity today.
The influence of the frontal boundary will keep a prevailing SE
component to sfc winds, and with the best pool of moisture
lingering over the northern half of SoFlo during the short term.
PoPs/Wx coverage will drop into the 30-40 percent range and mainly
north of I-75. Higher chances of showers and thunderstorms will
reside over Glades county and the Lake region.

Daytime heating will again provide for development of sea breeze
boundaries, which will become focal points for deeper convection as
the boundaries push inland. However, an isolated strong
thunderstorm or two may still develop near the Atlantic coast,
especially over eastern Palm Beach county each afternoon. Main
hazards with any thunderstorm that forms will be strong gusty
winds, potential for large hail, and locally heavy rain.

With the establishing mid level ridge, and overall subsidence
returning to SoFlo, afternoon temperatures will warm up into the
upper 80s to low 90s across much of interior and western areas. The
SE flow may keep the Atlantic coastal areas in the low-mid 80s. In
addition, heat index values may rise into the upper 90s or even
triple digits over some interior locations.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 210 AM EDT Wed May 7 2025

Long range model solutions show a developing trough/low complex
racing eastward across the SE CONUS to start the weekend, while the
mid level ridge over the area quickly flattens and begins eroding.
At the upper levels, guidance depicts a jet developing over the E
Gulf and the SE states, with a low developing along the jet early
in the weekend. At the sfc, a frontal boundary will migrate SE
across the northern half of the peninsula through the weekend,
with SW flow developing aloft. In the meantime, sfc winds becomes
more robust by Friday, resulting in moisture advection and
increasing chances of rain area-wide.

The overall synoptic scenario will begin priming the atmosphere for
a potentially extended wet period. As the front approaches, PoPs/Wx
coverage will expand north-to-south with 50-60 over the weekend.
An adjustment to the long term forecast philosophy has been made
to better depict a later trend of the best chances of rain towards
the Monday-Tuesday timeframe, with PoPs around 70 percent for
much of SoFlo. Steeper lapse rates and longer-lasting sea breeze
boundaries may provide favorable conditions for stronger storms to
develop each afternoon.

Despite the increasing trend in rain activity, temperatures are
expected to remain on the warm side during the weekend with highs in
the mid-upper 80s for coastal locations, and into the low-mid 90s
over inland/southwest areas. Heat index values will likely reach the
90s on the warmer days. The anticipated rain and thunderstorm
activity should help in keeping temperatures a little cooler early
next week with most areas remaining in the low-mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 111 AM EDT Wed May 7 2025

Winds will remain easterly over the TAF sites with speeds of 5 to
10 knots for the rest of tonight before increasing late Wednesday
morning to around 10-12 kts still out of the east-southeast. Only
exception will be APF where winds shift the west-southwest again.
The ceilings and vis will remain in VFR conditions along with dry
weather for all TAF sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 210 AM EDT Wed May 7 2025

High pressure across the area will keep a gentle to moderate
southeasterly wind in place through the end of the week, except for
periods of winds shifting to the southwest over the Gulf waters as
sea breezes develop each afternoon. A few isolated showers and
thunderstorms are possible each afternoon, with possible brief
periods rough seas and gusty winds accompanying any thunderstorm
that forms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            86  75  87  75 /  10   0  10  10
West Kendall     88  71  89  71 /  10   0  10  10
Opa-Locka        88  73  89  74 /  10  10  10  10
Homestead        86  74  87  74 /  10   0  10   0
Fort Lauderdale  84  74  85  74 /  10  10  10  10
N Ft Lauderdale  85  73  86  73 /  10  10  10  10
Pembroke Pines   90  75  90  75 /  10  10  10  10
West Palm Beach  86  72  87  72 /  20  10  20  10
Boca Raton       86  73  87  73 /  10  10  10  10
Naples           88  72  88  72 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...Redman