Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Versions:
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197
FNUS74 KMEG 231009
FWSMEG
Spot Forecast for HS IU 84-1...USFS
National Weather Service Memphis TN
509 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025
Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on May 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
No rain fell in the burn area Thursday night, but heavy rain is
expected tonight(Friday night) Moisture levels will continue to
increase today and tonight. Rain and thunderstorms are expected
tonight night through the weekend. The development of fog looks
unlikely tonight(Saturday morning).
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
CWR.................10 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 79.
Min humidity........45 percent.
Dewpoint............54.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......3600 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...671-1097 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 6 to 10 mph shifting to the east
around 6 mph.
Transport winds m/s.Northeast 3 to 4 meters/second shifting to the
east around 3 meters/second.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2600 knot-ft).
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches.
TIME (CDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........38 41 44 47 42 36 31 30
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10 10 10 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 10 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............70 72 73 74 76 77 77 78
Dewpoint........53 53 53 53 54 54 55 55
RH..............55 51 49 48 46 45 47 46
20 FT wind dir..NE NE NE NE N N N N
20 FT wind spd..2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
20 FT wind gust.8 8 8 7 7 6 6 7
Mix hgt (kft)...2.2 2.6 2.9 3.3 3.3 3.6 3.6 3.3
Mix hgt (km)....0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.0
Transp wind dir.NE NE NE N N N N E
Transp wind spd.10 8 7 6 7 7 6 6
Trans wind dir..NE NE NE N N N N E
Trans spd (m/s).4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms overnight. Chance of
showers and thunderstorms after 3 am.
CWR.................10 percent increasing to 50 percent.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 61.
Max humidity........93 percent.
Dewpoint............56.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms overnight.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...122-762 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....East 6 to 13 mph.
Transport winds m/s.East 3 to 6 meters/second.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (400 knot-ft).
Rainfall amount.....0.14 inches.
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........28 27 30 32 35 45 56 66 70 74 78 80
Weather cov..... SCH CHC CHC CHC
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10 20 30 40 50
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10 20 30 40 50
Temp............77 75 73 68 67 66 66 65 65 63 63 63
Dewpoint........56 56 56 56 56 56 55 55 56 56 57 58
RH..............48 52 55 65 68 69 68 70 72 79 81 83
20 FT wind dir..N N E E E E E E E E E E
20 FT wind spd..2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3
20 FT wind gust.7 7 6 7 7 7 7 8 10 10 10 10
Mix hgt (kft)...2.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5
Mix hgt (km)....0.8 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2
Transp wind dir.E E E E E E E E E E E E
Transp wind spd.7 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 12 13
Trans wind dir..E E E E E E E E E E E E
Trans spd (m/s).3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..2 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Showers and
chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then
showers and thunderstorms likely in the
afternoon.
CWR.................60 percent increasing to 80 percent in the
morning, then decreasing to 70 percent late in
the morning decreasing to 60 percent late in
the afternoon decreasing to 50 percent.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 78.
Min humidity........67 percent.
Dewpoint............60 increasing to 64 in the late morning and
afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds around 5 mph early in the
morning becoming light, then becoming southeast
around 5 mph early in the afternoon becoming
light. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms in the morning. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms in the
afternoon.
Mixing height.......1900 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...183-579 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 9 to 15 mph.
Transport winds m/s.Southeast 4 to 7 meters/second.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1000 knot-ft).
Rainfall amount.....0.48 inches.
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky (%).........83 88 88 80
Weather cov.....LIKELY DEFNTE LIKELY LIKELY
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY
CWR.............60 80 70 60
Chc of pcpn (%).60 80 70 60
Temp............62 64 71 76
Dewpoint........58 62 64 66
RH..............88 92 79 70
20 FT wind......E 5G10 SE 3G11 SE 5G10 SE 3G10
Mix hgt (ft)....600 1000 1300 1700
Mix hgt (m).....180 300 400 520
Transport wind..SE 13 SE 15 SE 15 SE 10
Tran wind (m/s).SE 6 SE 7 SE 7 SE 4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..1 2 3 3
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR
$$
Forecaster...Sirmon
Requested by...John Townsend
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2514541.0/MEG
.DELDT 05/23/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL john.townsend@usda.gov