282
FXUS64 KMEG 280536
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1236 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

- Dangerous heat and humidity will persist across the Mid-South
  through Tuesday evening, with heat indices peaking between 110
  and 115 degrees.

- Seasonal temperatures and reduced humidity arrive by midweek,
  offering relief from the extreme heat.

- The forecast remains mostly dry apart from shower and
  thunderstorm chances Wednesday night and Friday into Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

An upper ridge axis currently sits over the Rockies and Desert
Southwest with northwest flow aloft across the Midwest down to
the Gulf. Normally this pattern would bring a cold front down to
cool the region, but instead we have been faced with a multi-day
heat wave. With no front or meaningful cloud cover expected in
the next 24 hours, dangerous heat is forecast to continue Tuesday
with heat index values in excess of 110 F across the entire Mid-
South. A few showers could occur tonight in association with
decaying convection from the north, but any rain will be
negligible in both amounts and impacts to Tuesday`s heat.

By Tuesday evening, an upper wave, produced by overnight
convection across the High Plains, will propagate into the
Ozarks. CAMs go on to produce a few showers as this feature moves
into the region through the early evening. As the night
progresses, CAMs are in general agreement that convective
coverage will pick up with locally heavy rainfall along an axis
extending from northern Arkansas into north-central Mississippi.
As of right now, rainfall totals look to only approach 1.0" in
most areas with locally heavier totals possible under stronger
areas of rainfall. Fortunately for us, this will mark the
beginning of a cooldown that is expected to last the rest of the
forecast period.

Behind the weak wave Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning,
the synoptic troughing across the eastern CONUS will finally drag
down more northerly flow. This will act to help the area of
surface high pressure to our north move far enough south to bring
cooler air into the region. High temperatures will drop to around
90 F. Heat index values will drop to around or below 100 F in
most areas, aside from the Mississippi River Delta in Arkansas
and Mississippi where heat index values may still reach 105+.
Beyond Wednesday, this pattern looks likely to hold with the
upper ridge over the western CONUS retrograding further west with
the axis of stronger northwesterly flow moving westward along
with it.

Given the cooler air that will settle in over the region, a
baroclinic zone will form along a stationary boundary through the
Mid-South, albeit relatively weak. Multiple medium- to long-range
models show a lee surface cyclone propagating eastward through
the Middle Mississippi River Valley, bringing another shot of
rain Friday and into Saturday. Some areas could see locally heavy
rainfall associated with diurnally driven convection. However,
the exact extent of the heavier rainfall totals will be
determined in the coming days as forecast uncertainties in the
timing, strength, and position of the surface low become better
resolved. As of right now, 1.0" - 1.5" are most likely with
heavier amounts confined near the Tennessee River Valley.

A cold front associated with the surface cyclone will pass by
Sunday morning, ushering another round of cooler air and dry
weather. Therefore, the cooling trend is expected to continue
beyond this weekend and into next week. Many models keep residual
upper troughing over the southern Mississippi River Valley early
next week through the end of the period, marking a signal that
the extent of the cooler temperatures may reach further into next
week outside of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through most of the
period. Light winds will become W winds between 6-9 kts on
Tuesday. Model trends suggest a decaying MCS may move into the
Mid-South late Tuesday night. There is low confidence in timing
and impacts with this convective activity and will continue the
VCSH at MEM for this issuance.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

No major fire danger concerns for the foreseeable future as minRH
values remain above 40% and 20ft winds stay below 10 mph.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-018-
     026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-115.

MS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ001>017-
     020>024.

TN...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TNZ001>004-
     019>022-048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...CJC