554
FXUS64 KMEG 291728
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1228 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1228 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

- Slightly cooler daytime temperatures are expected through
  midweek, due to increased cloud cover and scattered to numerous
  showers and thunderstorms each day.

- Hot and humid conditions along with isolated afternoon and
  evening showers and thunderstorms will return by Independence
  Day and persist through the holiday weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Currently...Cloudy and humid conditions prevail across the region
early this morning with calm or light southerly winds. Not much
rain on the scope right now but that is unlikely to last long.
Latest 00z sounding from LZK shows a PW of 2.04 inches which
highlights just how moist this airmass is.

A "dirty" upper ridge prevails across the region. The ridge axis
seems to be located from TX along the OK/AR border. Weak
disturbances, or old MCVs, will trigger storms today. The first
one, located over southern MO, is already triggering
redevelopment. Latest hi-res models favor this activity sliding
into NE AR and the MO Bootheel and then into West TN this morning.
More disturbances over Kansas will likely help trigger more
storms this afternoon into this evening. The location of this
afternoon`s storms will be dependent on how this morning`s
activity evolves and resultant outflow boundaries. Wind shear will
remain fairly weak but this airmass is very moist and will
destabilize with heating so gusty winds (35-45 mph) from
downbursts and locally heavy rainfall are likely. Isolated rain
amounts of over 2 inches are expected with a chance of localized
flooding. Clouds and convection will keep temperatures slightly
cooler today with highs from 85 to 90.

An upper level trough pushing through the Great Lakes will
continue to weaken the ridge further early in the week. A weak
cold front will push into the area which will serve to keep shower
and thunderstorm chances elevated and temperatures a slightly
cooler. Shear still remains pretty weak with this system with most
of the stronger winds well to the north so organized severe
weather is unlikely though there is a chance of a few stronger
storms.

Precip chances gradually tail off toward the middle and end of
next week as upper ridging starts to rebuild across the area which
is likely to mean the return of hot temperatures by next weekend,
perhaps continuing into the following week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

A few storms linger across West TN with some new development over
north MS near TUP. Additional storms will fire this afternoon as
the surface destabilizes with daytime heating. Coverage is
questionable given the early day convection, but there is enough
support to warrant PROB30 for TSRA at all terminals through early
evening. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible tonight,
but confidence is too low to mention in TAF. Otherwise, expect
similar conditions on Monday with daytime convection firing by
early afternoon. The NBM/HREF probabilities (20-35%) are hinting
at the potential for MVFR ceilings Monday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Fire weather concerns will remain very low as rain chances and
humidity remain high. 20 foot winds will stay below 10 knots
over the next several days. Shower and thunderstorm activity will
decrease by late week as temperatures heat back up.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...MJ