367
FXUS64 KMEG 111105
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
605 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 514 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

- Dry and warmer conditions are expected today and Wednesday, with
  high temperatures reaching the mid 70s.

- Showers and scattered thunderstorms will move across the region
  starting Wednesday night and continuing into Thursday. Some hail
  and gusty winds will be possible across portions of northeast
  Mississippi on Thursday afternoon.

- Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected from Friday
  afternoon through Saturday night, with the potential for some
  strong to severe thunderstorms. There continues to be some
  uncertainty regarding the timing and severity of these storms,
  so continue to monitor the forecast for the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Skies are cloudy across portions of the Missouri bootheel and
northwest Tennessee with mostly clear skies across the remainder
of the region. Temperatures early this morning are in the upper
30s to lower 50s. Currently, high pressure was over the western
Gulf coast.

As the high continues to move east today, southwest winds will
bring warmer air into the region. Temperatures will be above
normal today with highs in the mid 70s. Dry and mild weather will
continue through tonight with lows Wednesday morning in the mid
40s to lower 50s. Wednesday will remain warm and dry as highs are
in the low to mid 70s.

By Wednesday night, low pressure will be over northern Oklahoma
with a cold front extending south from the low. As this low tracks
east, the cold front will reach western Arkansas by Thursday
morning. Showers and some thunderstorms will form ahead of the
front with this activity moving into the region on Wednesday
night. The cold front will move across the Mid-South on Thursday
with more showers and thunderstorms expected ahead of the front.
There could be some strong thunderstorms across portions of
northeast Mississippi Thursday afternoon with gusty winds and some
hail possible.

The cold front will fall apart to our east by Friday morning as a
stronger storm system develops across the central Plains. This
will result in a period of dry and warm weather for Thursday night
through Friday morning. This second storm system will bring a cold
front into western Arkansas by Friday afternoon and near the
Mississippi by Saturday morning. Widespread showers and thunderstorms
will move into the region by Friday afternoon and continue
through Friday night. Severe thunderstorms will be possible for
Friday night. There continues to be quite a bit of uncertainty
regarding timing and potential severity of storms. At this point,
all modes of severe weather will be possible. Outside of
thunderstorms, windy conditions are expected for Friday afternoon
and evening.

By Saturday, low pressure will move along the cold front as it
moves through the eastern half of the region. This could enhance
the thunderstorms that develop ahead of the front with more severe
thunderstorms possible, mainly over portions of northeast
Mississippi. As the cold front exits the region by late Saturday
night, showers and thunderstorms will move out of the Mid-South.

Behind this cold front, cooler and drier air will be in place
across the region for Sunday and Monday. Near normal temperatures
are expected for Sunday with slightly warmer weather in store for
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

VFR conditions expected through the period. Light winds will
increase to 10-15 kts with occasional gusts between 20-25 kts
today, then become light by this evening.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ARS
AVIATION...CJC