577
FXUS64 KMEG 131727
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1227 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1227 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

- Hot and humid conditions continue across the Mid-South. High
  temperatures will generally be in the low to mid 90s,
  increasing to the mid to upper 90s this weekend.

- A Heat Advisory is in effect both today and tomorrow across
  portions of eastern Arkansas and northwest Mississippi where
  heat index values will rise just above 105 degrees.

- Scattered thunderstorm chances (40 to 60 percent) will continue
  through Thursday, with chances decreasing to 20 to 40 percent
  through this weekend. Highest chances will be in the afternoon
  hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Another typical, summertime afternoon across the Mid-South with
temperatures currently in the upper 80s to low 90s. A Heat
Advisory remains in effect over portions of eastern AR and the MS
Delta through 7 PM, where heat indices could reach just above
105. Over the past hour, thunderstorms have begun to develop
generally east of the Mississippi River. Do expect for an increase
in coverage into the afternoon hours as a weak shortwave pushes
towards the area. From a severe weather standpoint, won`t rule out
a few stronger, pulse storms with strong winds (40 to 50 mph). In
addition, PWAT values remain at to just above 2" over much of the
Mid-South, so some storms could produce heavy rainfall and lead
to some isolated ponding in poorly draining areas. However,
organized and widespread severe weather is not expected.
Overnight, there is a decent signal for patchy fog across the
area, so something to keep in mind for the early morning commute.

Into tomorrow, a generally similar weather pattern is expected
with a weak frontal boundary sagging into the area. This boundary
is expected to stall over the Mid-South, but could provide more
lift for thunderstorms across north MS tomorrow afternoon. Similar
to today, won`t rule out periods of gusty winds and heavy
rainfall, but severe weather is not anticipated. High temperatures
will remain in the low to mid 90s, with a few locations seeing
heat indices in the low 100s to near 105. There is still some
uncertainty, but went ahead and continued the Heat Advisory into
tomorrow over eastern AR and the MS Delta where those heat index
values could exceed 105 again in the afternoon. Similar conditions
will prevail again on Friday, with the potential for additional
heat headlines mainly over similar areas.

By this weekend, high pressure will begin to re-build through the
area. As such, afternoon convection will remain fairly limited (10-20%
chance) with high temperatures reaching back into the mid to upper
90s. Dew point temps should back off a few degrees, but do think
at least some locations will exceed 105 for max heat index values.
Additional heat headlines will likely be needed into the weekend,
but will address the locations on a day to day basis. Into next
week, this pattern will likely persist, keeping us in a hot and
humid airmass through at least next Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Sporadic TSRA has developed across the airspace, warranting a
variety of PROB30s/VCTS for the TAFs in the near term today. Will
note that TUP is the site most likely to experience more
prolonged TSRA over the course of the afternoon just due to how
the surface boundary has set up over northeast MS. Otherwise VFR
conditions continue to prevail. Winds are kind of all over the
place direction-wise since we are right under the peak of a
surface ridge. Expect bonafide light and variable winds through
the overnight period for most locations. MKL may develop patchy
fog again tomorrow morning with these light winds. Went with
mainly a persistence forecast of generally south/southwest winds
for tomorrow.

CAD

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

No major fire weather concerns through the forecast period. MinRH
values will remain above 50% through the weekend. While some dry
conditions could creep in early next week, wind speeds will remain
light.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ058.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ058.

MO...None.
MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ007-010-011-020.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for MSZ007-010-011-
     020.

TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...CAD