814
FXUS64 KMEG 281733
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1233 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1233 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

- Increased cloud cover with scattered to numerous showers and
  thunderstorms will result in slightly cooler daytime
  temperatures over the weekend, particularly on Sunday.

- A weak cold front will push into the area early next week with
  scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms continuing along
  with slightly cooler temperatures.

- Humid conditions will continue through the upcoming week and
  temperatures will warm toward the July Fourth holiday as rain
  chances diminish.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Currently...Partly cloudy skies and mild temperatures prevail
across the Mid-South early this morning. Readings are in the 70s
with light southerly winds.

The upper ridge over the region will weaken slightly over the next
couple of days. Meanwhile, weak MCVs moving slowly from the
Southern Plains into the Mid-South should provide more focus for
convection over the next couple of days resulting in increased
coverage during the afternoon and evening hours. We are not
expecting organized severe weather over the next couple of days
since the shear is so weak but the unstable and moist airmass
will support some stronger storms with gusty winds and locally
heavy rainfall. The airmass is very moist with PWs approaching 2
inches west of the MS River today and across most of the area on
Sunday. This moisture combined with slow moving storms will result
in isolated areas picking up some heavy rainfall totals, perhaps
2 inches or more. This could cause some localized flooding issues.

The increase in clouds and convective coverage will help limit
heating a bit today and especially Sunday which will keep heat
index values below 105 degrees across the area. Do not sleep on
the heat though since heat index values will still hit 100 to 105
degrees in most areas today.

An upper level trough pushing through the Great Lakes will weaken
the ridge further early next week. A weak cold front will push
into the area which will serve to keep shower and thunderstorm
chances elevated and temperatures a little cooler than they have
been recently.

Precip chances gradually tail off toward the middle and end of
next week as upper ridging starts to rebuild across the area which
is likely to mean the return of hot temperatures by next weekend,
perhaps into the following week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

The diurnal Cu field has blossomed across the Mid-South over the
past hour, with scattered showers and thunderstorms increasing in
coverage, especially across West TN. This activity will persist
well into the evening hours, diminishing late. Additional shower
development is expected late tonight with thunderstorm chances
increasing again on Sunday. Outside of convection, VFR conditions
will prevail. There is a low potential for MVFR ceilings at TUP
Sunday after 12z, but confidence is low.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 251 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

No fire weather concerns expected. Minimum relative humidity
values are expected to remain above 50% with 20 foot winds below
10 knots. Shower and thunderstorm chances will remain elevated
through Tuesday and then diminish toward the middle and end of
next week.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...MJ