781
FXUS64 KMEG 222345 AAA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
645 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 626 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

- Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected by Friday
  Night and continuing through the weekend, with some strong to
  severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall.

- Cooler conditions will continue through the remainder of the
  week and into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Pleasant afternoon across the Mid-South with some high clouds
beginning to stream in from the northwest. CAMs have been a bit
messy into the afternoon to evening hours with the current
disturbance moving out of Oklahoma and into Arkansas. A couple of
CAMs do want to bring some of this moisture to the Mid-South, but
there is some dryness to work through. If we were able to work
through this, wouldn`t be surprised if a few thunderstorms clip
the southwest portions of our area, but my confidence is low at
this point. Dry and cooler conditions will persist through much of
the day again tomorrow, with high temperatures generally in the
mid 70s to mid 80s.

Northwesterly flow aloft will become more amplified overnight
into tomorrow, remaining across the Mid-South through at least the
first half of the weekend. Friday Night through the Memorial Day
Holiday looks to be a generally cool and wet pattern, with
multiple shortwaves bringing showers and thunderstorms to the
area. While I do not think the entire weekend will be a wash and
there will be some breaks in the rain, do think it would be a good
idea to have some rain contingency plans in place if you do have
any outdoor activities. In terms of threats for the weekend, think
the chance for heavy rainfall and subsequent localized flooding
concerns will be our main issue, but some strong to severe
thunderstorms at times certainly isn`t out of the question. In
terms of the flooding concerns, guidance suggests that 2-4+ inches
of rainfall will occur through this period. Some locations will
likely exceed 4 inches, with NBM probs suggesting there is around
a 20% chance of exceedance mainly along and north of the I-40
corridor. PWAT values will hover around 1.75" by Saturday and
Sunday, which is above the 90th percentile for the time of year.
Any CAPE we have will likely be skinny in nature, which would
result in a favorable environment for heavy downpours and training
storms given the synoptic set-up. In addition to the heavy
rainfall threat, there will be a low-end strong to severe
thunderstorm threat each day. We already have at least some
portions of the Mid-South included in a Marginal Risk for Friday
Night as well as again on Saturday, but would not be surprised if
additional areas are added for at least Sunday and potentially
Monday. It mainly looks to be a hail and damaging wind threat for
any strong thunderstorm that develops.

Guidance suggests we will begin to break out of this pattern by
Tuesday, but the remainder of the forecast is uncertain with model
discrepancies increasing. Will keep some PoPs in the forecast to
account for the differences, but solutions tend to favor a drier
solution. Even with the differences, guidance does suggest
temperatures will remain near to below normal, with high
temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Primary concern is TSRA trends in the short term. CAMs have
struggled in the northwest flow. Reality this evening will lie
between the isolated -SHRA depicted the 22Z HRRR and the
widespread TSRA depicted by the 18Z NAM 3km.

KLZK radar TSRA have been splitting over the past hour, which may
result in storms missing MEM. With this in mind, and the possibility
of storms weakening, the MEM TAF was kept to a two hour VCTS.

More widespread TSRA is expected to drop through the Midsouth
after 06Z Saturday, just beyond the MEM 30 hour TAF.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...PWB