684
FXUS64 KMEG 161112
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
612 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 612 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

- Temperatures will trend warmer through the end of the week, with
  daily chances for showers and thunderstorms continuing through
  Friday.

- Triple-digit heat index values return this weekend. Heat
  headlines may be needed, particularly for areas along and west
  of the Mississippi River.

- A pattern change is indicated on long range guidance, producing
  variable high temperatures for the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Patchy dense fog may develop over portions of the Mid-South
through sunrise as skies continue to clear and winds go calm. The
00Z HREF paints a 30 to 50 percent chance of visibility less than
a quarter mile for areas north of the Mississippi / Tennessee
border. Should this occur, a Dense Fog Advisory will be
warranted. Luckily, visibilities will quickly improve after
sunrise.

Southerly surface flow returns to the Mid-South on Thursday as a
surface low continues west. As a result, afternoon highs will
warm a degree or two through Friday. Afternoon showers and
thunderstorms are not out of the question at this time as a few
weak disturbances push through the Mid-South. Efficient rainfall
rates are anticipated with any activity that does develop, but
overall probabilities for greater than a half inch of rain now
through Friday evening is less than 30 percent.

Synoptic level flow this weekend will focus around a building
subtropical high over the western Gulf and the emergence of a
tropical system over the Florida peninsula. This regime will
place the Mid-South in northwest flow aloft, keeping the area
prone to shortwave passages. Rain chances will linger through the
weekend with areas near the Tennessee River having the greatest
chance for precipitation. Afternoon highs will remain in the low
90s but a few higher readings cannot be ruled out in the
Mississippi Delta, where the upper level ridge will be the more
prominent synoptic level player. A Heat Advisory is not out of
the question along and west of the Mississippi River, but enough
uncertainty exists at this time to cast doubt on heat indices
reaching the 105 degree mark. Unsettled upper level flow will
continue into next week as a large upper level trough digs across
the Great Lakes Region. This feature will eject a cold front
towards the Mid-South, though model disagreements remain
regarding the exact speed and strength of this boundary. As such,
the NBM continues an 8 to 10 degree spread in afternoon highs by
the middle of next week. For now, expect a warm start to the week
with daily chances of rain.

ANS

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Early morning low clouds and fog are impacting JBR, MKL, and MEM.
IFR ceilings are expected to lift by midday, shifting to
prevailing VFR conditions that will persist through tonight and
tomorrow. With the storm track having shifted farther north,
showers and thunderstorms are no longer expected at MEM and TUP.
PROB30 groups have been included for MKL and JBR during peak
heating.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Fire weather concerns are not anticipated this period as tropical
moisture continues to impact the Mid-South. Wetting rain chances
will linger into next week.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for ARZ009-018-
     026>028-035-036-048.

MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for MOZ113-115.

MS...None.
TN...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for TNZ001>004-
     019>022-048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...JDS