527
FXUS64 KMEG 101132
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
632 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 632 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

- Pleasant, near-normal temperatures will continue through
  Saturday under clear skies.

- A significant warming and drying trend will begin early next
  week as an upper-level ridge builds over the region, with
  afternoon highs climbing into the mid and upper 80s.

- Dry conditions are expected to persist through the next seven days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 1051 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

High pressure has settled over the region. Clear skies prevail
with temps in the 50s this evening. Lows will dip into the 40s
along and north of I-40 by morning. The dry airmass will moderate
over the next few days with near normal temps returning Friday
and Saturday. Highs will be mainly in the upper 70s with lows in
the 50s.

Later this weekend into next week an anomalous upper ridge over
the Southern Plains will push into the Mid-South and continue to
strengthen. Highs will reach into the mid and upper 80s with lows
in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Not seeing any significant precipitation for the next 10 days as
the upper ridge maintains it`s grip on the region. After some
improvement with recent rains expect drought conditions to
deteriorate in the near to mid term.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

VFR forecast expected at all terminals. Winds will remain light
and out of the east through this afternoon, becoming variable
after 00z. CAMs continue to produce light, isolated precipitation
around JBR late this evening, but dry air near the surface
decreases confidence in enough shower coverage to warrant any
mention in the TAF at this time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1051 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Fire weather concerns will remain low through this weekend, with
temperatures around normal, minimum RH values around 40%, and
light 20-foot winds. As temperatures climb into the mid to upper
80s, RH values dip below 40%, and dry weather continues, fire
weather concerns will increase next week.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...JAB