332
FXUS64 KMEG 231125
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
625 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 623 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

- Mainly rain free weather is expected through this weekend with
  noticeably less humidity. High temperatures will remain in the
  90s each day with lows in the mid 60s.

- A cold front will swing through the Mid-South Sunday night into
  Monday and deliver our first taste of fall weather.

- Next week will feature below normal temperatures and comfortable
  humidity. Lows will dip into the upper 50s and lower 60s each
  morning with afternoon highs only in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 1118 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

A 596 dam ridge, currently centered over the Four Corners Region,
will expand eastward today. This elongation will effectively end
any residual upper level troughing from Thursday`s frontal system.
Afternoon highs will climb to the low 90s areawide, but a few
brief showers cannot be ruled out along the Tennessee River. Don`t
expect any heavy downpours this afternoon: rainfall amounts will
be negligible. Stronger northwest flow develops over the region
on Sunday as a large upper level trough approaches the Great Lakes
Region. Temperatures will remain in the upper 80s to low 90s, but
dewpoints in the 60s will keep conditions bearable.

An early taste of fall will arrive late Sunday into Monday as the
aforementioned trough ejects a cold front into the Mid-South.
Dewpoints will fall into the low and mid 50s by Monday afternoon
with highs in the 80s. Both the GFS and ECMWF depict a shortwave
developing on the backside of the trough early Tuesday morning.
This system will provide a direct path for Canadian air to usher
into the Mid-South. Dewpoints will drop to the upper 40s and low
50s on Tuesday. Areas near the TN/KY border may struggle to reach
80 degrees Tuesday afternoon. The remainder of the work week will
be splendid as northerly flow prevails. Afternoon highs in the low
80s are anticipated through the end of the week.

It is important to note: although the Mid-South will undergo a
relatively strong FROPA, rain chances remain lack luster through
the period. A few showers may form Monday into Tuesday, but
appreciable rainfall is not anticipated. Rapid onset drought is
looking more likely due to a lack of widespread measurable
rainfall. Our current D1 Moderate Drought is on track to worsen to
D2 Severe Drought by the end of next week.

ANS

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

VFR conditions will continue through the period with north to
northeast winds less than 8 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1118 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Fire weather concerns increase next week as a dry airmass
overspreads the Mid-South. Although 20ft winds will remain
in the 5-10 mph range, MinRH below 40% and dry fuels may lead to
elevated fire danger across the region.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...TAB