003
FXUS64 KMEG 051935
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
235 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 234 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

- An active weather pattern begins today with showers and
  thunderstorms posing a damaging wind threat through sunset
  tonight.

- Additional rounds of severe weather are anticipated both Friday
  and Saturday. The primary concerns will be damaging winds, large
  hail, and heavy rainfall.

- Daily rounds of rain continue into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

A stormy, summertime pattern is underway across the Mid-South as a
pesky upper level ridge remains centered over Texas. Over the next
several days, multiple shortwave disturbances will rotate around
the outer periphery of this ridge, bringing increased chances for
severe thunderstorms.

As of 230 PM, radar imagery depicts spotty thunderstorm
development over the Mid-South. This activity is expected to
increase in coverage and intensity over the next few hours,
interacting with increasing instability and bulk shear around 30
kts. Multicell clusters will continue into the evening hours, with
a strong to severe thunderstorm or two occurring before sunset.
Lack luster lapse rates will hamper storm intensity, leading to a
primary threat of damaging winds.

Further west over Oklahoma, a MCS will push eastward overnight.
This system is not expected to die off once it reaches the Mid-
South, mainly due to the presence of a weak 700 mb jet. Instead,
expect this cluster of storms to continue across the area through
the day, reinvigorating in the afternoon. A Slight Risk for severe
storms is in place for the entire Mid-South to account for this
system and potential isolated storm development in the afternoon.
The 12Z HREF depicts lower-end lapse rates tomorrow, hampering
overall storm strength. The primary threats will be damaging
winds and large hail.

Saturday`s forecast will be a rinse and repeat of Friday as yet
another shortwave traverses the outer edge of the aforementioned
ridge. A morning MCV is one again probable with afternoon and
evening storms posing a damaging wind and large hail threat. There
remains uncertainty in Saturday`s forecast due to the potential
for morning storms to contaminate the environment. However, there
is enough confidence in severe development to once again include
the Mid-South in a Slight Risk.

A weak cold front will enter the region on Sunday. However, any
relief from the heat and humidity will be short-lived as
southerly winds return Monday afternoon. For now, we will remain
in a pesky pattern filled with daily rounds of rainfall.

ANS

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

12Z LZK sounding showed a layer of warm air aloft around FL100,
upstream from the Midsouth. This warm air aloft may limit TSRA
coverage this afternoon, with lower-topped SHRA more probable.
Otherwise, light winds and VFR will prevail up through the late
evening MEM arrival push.

TSRA forming well upstream this afternoon near AMA and DDC will
merge into a larger convective complex and move eastward
overnight. Today`s 12Z HREF ensemble and LREF model members
suggest this eastward-moving TSRA complex and associated shortwave
trough will take a more northerly track into lower OH River Valley
on Friday. The result is a lower confidence TSRA potential for
MEM. As such, the 18Z MEM TAF limits Friday`s TSRA mention to a
PROB30.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...PWB