032
FXUS64 KMEG 050523
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1123 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 911 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2025

Skies are cloudy across the Mid-South this evening with
temperatures in the lower 40s to mid 60s. A frontal boundary is
currently across southern Arkansas into north Mississippi. A few
showers may develop north of this boundary overnight, but most
areas in the Mid-South should remain dry. Updated low temperatures
for some of the area.

ARS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2025

Well above normal temperatures in the 60s and 70s will remain across
the Mid-South through Saturday. Showers and occasional thunderstorms
return tomorrow and Thursday as several fronts move across the
region. Temperatures return closer to normal Sunday through early
next week with the movement of a wet cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Monday)
Issued at 315 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2025

The movement nearly stationary cold front, currently extending
just south of I-269 corridor, has brought an interesting weather
look across the Mid-South today. North of the cold front, current
temperatures are in the mid 40s to mid 50s where we are currently
socked in and this morning`s fog has remained in place. Meanwhile,
south of the front, temperatures are in the mid 60s to lower 70s
with a bit more sparse cloud cover. In the upper-levels, very weak
ridging is building in from the west, not really impacting the
weather at the surface.

By this evening, Gulf moisture will begin to usher in as an
upper-level low churns over the Lower Rio Grande Valley region,
amplifying the moisture field across the Mid-South. A few light
showers and drizzle will remain possible as our moisture profile
increases this evening. Tomorrow morning, upper-level zonal flow
will move back over the region as a warm front lifts north.
Precipitation chances will begin to increase tomorrow, aided by
warm air advection along the aforementioned front. A few diurnally
driven thunderstorms could pulse up late tomorrow morning and
into the afternoon with some small hail and gusty winds possible
mainly east of the Mississippi River. Heading into tomorrow
evening, a conditional chance for severe weather exists mainly
east of the Mississippi River and north of the Mississippi and
Tennessee state line as a weak shortwave moves over the Middle
Mississippi Valley. As this shortwave moves, a small window for
instability to initialize will open. Though confidence is on the
lower end on anything generating, primary threats will be damaging
winds and a possible tornado or two.

Moving into Thursday, showers and occasional thunderstorms will
continue to lift north, best coverage will be north of the
Tennessee and Mississippi state line. QPF amounts with this system
are generally less than an inch. With the movement of the
aforementioned warm front, highs Thursday will be in the 70s
areawide. Come Friday, the front will move south once again,
dampening temperatures slightly with highs in the lower 50s to
lower 70s. No precipitation is expected with Friday`s cold front.
Temperatures will warm back into the 70s Saturday as another warm
front lifts north and an upper-level shortwave ejects from the
west. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms may be possible
Saturday mainly north of I-40 as this front lifts. A pretty strong
cold frontal system will move across the region Saturday evening.
More rainfall will be brought in with this next system and
temperatures will drop around 20 degrees with highs in the mid 40s
to upper 50s. Rainfall amounts once again will be nothing to
write home about as totals top out at around 1 inch. Heading into
next work-week, ensembles denote a re-enforcing cold front moving
across the region, bringing even more rainfall early next week.
Stay tuned.

AEH

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1116 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2025

Mainly IFR ceilings are expected over much of the Mid-South
overnight. Showers and some thunderstorms will start to move into
the region Wednesday morning and continue through much of the
afternoon. Along with the rain, ceilings will lower to LIFR
levels. Showers will become more scattered in coverage Wednesday
night with a small chance of rain at the TAF sites. Winds will be
mainly from the east at 5 to 10 knots overnight before shifting to
the south Wednesday morning. Winds will increase to 10 to 15 knots
with higher gusts Wednesday evening.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...ARS