137
FXUS64 KMEG 061928
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
228 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 227 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

- An active weather pattern will continue through the weekend.
  The primary concerns will be damaging winds, large hail, and
  heavy rainfall.

- Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms continue into next
  week.

- Temperatures will generally remain near normal this weekend
  through next week with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in
  the mid 60s to near 70 degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

200 PM radar imagery depicts numerous thunderstorms firing across
the Mid-South, mainly confined to areas in west Tennessee.
Additional activity will form over the next several hours,
interacting with plentiful CAPE and bulk shear on the order of 35
kts. The main missing ingredient for today`s storms are
appreciable midlevel lapse rates. SPC Mesoanalysis suggests lapse
rates will begin falling below 6.0 C/km within the next hour or
so. This will greatly limit upscale storm growth, with damaging
winds remaining the primary concern. A secondary threat of large
hail will occur with any developing storms. However, the hail
threat will quickly subside as storms encounter less than ideal
lapse rates.

A rinse and repeat forecast is anticipated for Saturday with
severe storms once again plaguing the Mid-South. Shortly after
sunrise, a complex of decaying storms will approach the
Mississippi River. This activity will struggle to maintain any
severe strength due to lingering CIN. However, environmental
parameters become more favorable in the afternoon as SBCAPE rises
above 2500 J/kg in north Mississippi. In addition, midlevel lapse
rates will improve to around 6.5 C/km with bulk shear nearing 40
kts. The latest HREF depicts vigorous redevelopment of storms over
north Mississippi Saturday afternoon. These storms will pose a
risk of damaging winds and large hail. Due to increasing
confidence in severe storm impacts Saturday afternoon, the Storm
Prediction Center has upgraded portions of north Mississippi to an
Enhanced Risk (3/5). Storms will exit the area Saturday night,
with a few lingering rumbles of thunder possible through early
Sunday morning.

Slightly cooler temperatures are anticipated on Sunday as a weak
front pushes into north Mississippi before washing out. Relief
from the heat and humidity will be short lived as southerly winds
return on Monday. This stormy pattern will continue throughout
next week as an upper level low forms over Texas and pushes into
the Mid-South. Severe chances remain low next week, but cannot
rule out a marginally severe storm or two given plentiful CAPE this
time of year.

ANS

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

KNQA radar showed an eastward-moving convectively-generated low
pressure system north of LIT. This feature will likely aid
SHRA/TSRA development this afternoon. After this feature passes
and daytime heating weakens, the lower atmosphere should stabilize.
VFR and light winds are expected for the late evening MEM inbound
push.

Next round of TSRA will arrive around 12Z Saturday. This system
should be fairly progressive, developing a potential for strong
winds at TUP later in the morning. General TSRA expected to
develop over the Midsouth Saturday afternoon as the atmosphere
remains warm and quite humid.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...PWB