103
FXUS64 KMEG 200415
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1115 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1111 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

- Significant river flooding will continue across portions of the
  Mid-South into next week.

- Showers and thunderstorms are likely by Sunday evening into
  Monday. Some storms could be strong to severe with damaging
  winds as the primary concern.

- Unsettled weather will continue through late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Warm weather continues today as high pressure continues to reside
of the the southeastern CONUS. A surface stationary boundary
currently sits across northern portions of the region, which is
keeping some areas cooler today with highs in the upper 70s to its
north and in the mid to upper 80s to the south. A few showers are
possible along this boundary this afternoon, but weak forcing will
keep any showers weak and isolated into this evening.

To the west, a low-latitude upper trough will move east in to the
region alongside a deepening surface cyclone by tomorrow evening.
Storms will develop along this boundary to the west of the region
throughout the day and are expected to persist into the night as
a broken line, reaching the Midsouth by 9 pm tomorrow evening.
Given the northward track of the surface low and strong diurnal
mixing, the primary theta e exist will be rather skinny and
pinched off with time. Therefore, as storms progress into the
region, instability is expected to decrease with storms
potentially outpacing the advance of this axis. As a consequence storms
will likely be on a weakening trend into the night, even though
sufficient shear will exist for updraft organization. Regardless,
strong to severe storms are still possible, especially across the
western third of the region where the SPC has outlined a Slight
(level 2/5) for primarily severe wind. An isolated tornado cannot
be ruled out across northeastern Arkansas. Storms are expected to
persist overnight as the travel east, but should become subsevere
after 06z and weaken further with time.

The upper trough will have exited the region to the east by
Monday evening with a front stalling across northern Mississippi.
The upper pattern then takes a less amplified shape with
predominantly zonal flow through the rest of the period. However,
the GFS/ECMWF both show a couple weak shortwaves traversing the
region through the week, kicking up some showers and storms each
afternoon starting Wednesday. Given the low- amplitude nature of
the upper forcing, updrafts are unlikely to become very organized
and favor a pulse/multicellular mode. As such, gusty winds and
small hail are the most likely hazards within stronger
thunderstorms. Lastly, storms and Monday`s frontal passage Monday
will keep high temperatures in the 70s and low 80s through the end
of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1111 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Mainly VFR for the TAF period. Winds will be fairly light
overnight as the gradient slackens. A brief period of MVFR cigs
are likely at JBR for a few hours in the morning. The gradient
restrengthens tomorrow with gusty south winds across the area. A
line of weakening convection will push into eastern AR after 21/00z
and into MEM around 21/04z.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...SJM