736
FXUS64 KMEG 211705
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1205 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect through 8PM today for portions
  of east Arkansas and north Mississippi. Heat index values will
  peak at 107 degrees.

- Conditions will turn cooler and drier this weekend, providing a
  reprieve from triple-digit heat index values.

- Northwest flow aloft will keep rain chances in the forecast each
  day next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

A stalled frontal boundary is currently just south of the Memphis
metropolitan area as of 11 AM. Temperatures are in the low to mid
80s with dewpoints in the lower 70s on the `cool` side of the
boundary with slightly warmer and moister air across most of
north Mississippi. This front is anticipated to continue its
descent this afternoon, which could lead to a few isolated
showers and thunderstorms, so a slight chance PoP was added for
this afternoon near the I-22 corridor. The warm side of the
boundary is under a Heat Advisory through 8 PM today for heat
index values up to 107F.

Once the front clears the region, cooler and drier conditions
will prevail through the weekend. Drier air will allow for heat
index values to fall below the triple digits for much of the
area, with the Delta region finally falling below 105F. There
could be a few showers and thunderstorms Saturday along and west
of the Mississippi River, but model soundings indicate
significant dry air, resulting in low confidence regarding
convective coverage and accumulation on Saturday.

Current forecast depicts a shortwave embedded in northwest flow
bringing showers and thunderstorms across the area early Monday
morning, but this seems to be heavily weighted on the GFS and its
ensemble members. Northwest flow looks to be the favored pattern
into the next week, but most guidance suggests this pattern
really taking hold on Tuesday as an upper ridge extends across
much of the south central US. The northwest flow will keep
temperatures on the cooler side, however, this results in the Mid-
South being vulnerable to MCSs propagating southward. While
ensemble members have low probability of severe weather
ingredients, this is likely to change in the presence of an MCS
that does develop threatening damaging winds. While the SPC has
not issued a formal convective outlook for this period, we will
continue to monitor the potential for MCS development and
associated damaging wind threats.

DNM

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

A quiet period is expected with mainly VFR conditions and light
mainly N/NW winds. Patchy light fog is possible near MKL and TUP
early tomorrow.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

An overall low fire weather risk will remain in place over the
next few days. A weak cold front will clear the region today and
decrease relative humidity values to around 40% this afternoon
along and west of the Mississippi River. This trend will spread
across the region for the next few days, however, surface and 20-
ft winds will remain light. Due to light surface winds, some
patchy fog is anticipated across the Tennessee River valley for
the next few mornings. Wetting rain chances will ramp up early
next week.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ049-058.

MO...None.
MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ007-010-011-
     020>024.

TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...JDS