Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
096 FXUS64 KMEG 022316 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 616 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 616 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025 - Relief from the recent extreme heat will continue through early next week. High temperatures will be in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees. - Rain chances will remain minimal into early next week with average amounts less than one-quarter inch. - Temperatures will begin to climb during the latter half of next week. Most triple digit heat indices will be confined to the Mississippi and Arkansas delta counties. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Friday) Issued at 1204 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025 Below normal temperatures have arrived across the Midsouth, behind a cold front that is now approaching the northern Gulf Coast. High temperatures this afternoon and Sunday will likely remain in the 80s across most of the region, although a few locations in north Mississippi and east central Arkansas could reach 90 degrees. More significantly, Heat Indices should be 10-20 degrees below what we experienced for most of the past 2 weeks. Sunday morning will feature our coolest temperatures over the next 7 days. Expect sunrise temperatures in the low to middle 60s across most of the area. Any rain today should be confined to northeast Mississippi, generally around Monroe county. An inverted trough associated with a surface low tracking along the front near the the Gulf Coast will set up along the Alabama/state line stretching north along the Tennessee River Sunday. This feature in a slightly better chance of rain near the Tennessee River Sunday, but the vast majority of the Midsouth will remain dry. A shortwave trough will shift out of the Central Plains into the Ohio Valley early next week resulting in diurnally enhanced (20-50%) rain and thunderstorm chances Monday through Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms will be most numerous east of the Mississippi River with the highest chances(35-50%) on Tuesday. A thermal ridge will strengthen over the Desert Southwest midweek and slowly edge closer to the Midsouth during the later half of the work week. As a result, temperatures should trend a degree or two warmer each day. Expect highs back in the low to middle 90s by Thursday. Return flow doesn`t get established until late Thursday or Friday, so most of the Midsouth shouldn`t see Heat Indices in the triple digits through Thursday. The exception may be in the Delta areas south of Memphis. Widespread rain is not expected Thursday into next weekend. 30/Sirmon && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 616 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025 Generally benign weather conditions are anticipated over the next 24 hours. NNE winds will diminish to 3-6 kts overnight. The broken Cu deck over the TN Valley may take a few hours after sunset to diminish, but skies should generally clear by 05z. There is a low probability (<20%) for MVFR ceilings at TUP/MKL Sunday morning, but confidence is too low to carry in the 00z TAF. We also anticipate isolated showers or thunderstorms over the TN Valley Sunday afternoon, but these are currently expected to remain east of MKL/TUP. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1204 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025 No fire weather concerns throughout the period as humidity remains around 50 percent and 20 ft winds below 10 mph. highs in the 80s and low 90s through early next week. Any rainfall through Monday will remain mostly confined to far northeast Mississippi and near the Tennessee River. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS AVIATION...MJ