665
FXUS64 KMEG 230304
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
904 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 900 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

-A warming trend will begin Sunday and persist through midweek
 with temperatures reaching the upper 60s and lower 70s by
 Wednesday.

-A weak frontal passage will bring low rain chances to the Mid-
 South Wednesday night into Thursday. Generally less than one
 quarter inch of rainfall is expected.

-Dry conditions and near normal temperatures will persist through
 next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

Skies are clear across the Mid-South this evening with
temperatures in the mid 20s to lower 30s. With clear skies and
light winds, temperatures will continue to drop overnight with
lows Sunday morning in the 20s. Current forecast looks good with
no update needed.

ARS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 320 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

A mostly sunny day across the Mid-South at this hour. Temperatures
have finally risen above freezing mark areawide and significant
melting of the snowpack has occurred across the region as seen
from GOES East satellite. The latest surface analysis places an
expansive 1028mb area of high pressure over the Lower Mississippi
Valley with a 1025mb low over southwest Virginia.

Surface high pressure will slide east on Sunday with return flow
setting up across the region through midweek. A significant
warming trend will ensue, with high temperatures peaking in the
upper 60s and lower 70s by Wednesday.

A weak cold front will move through the region Wednesday night
through Thursday. Very little rainfall is expected as the front
will be moisture starved. The latest WPC guidance suggests that
only up to a quarter of an inch of rainfall is possible from the
Lower Mississippi Valley to the Ohio River Valley. This is good
news as many rivers are either in flood stage or elevated.

Dry upper level northwest flow will persist through next weekend.
Temperatures will gently moderate during this period with highs in
the lower 60s and lows in the 40s. Upper level flow will
transition to the southwest early next week and could lead to
active weather pattern across the southern CONUS for the first
week of March.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 528 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

No significant aviation weather impacts are forecast for the next
30 hours. Southerly return flow will develop Sunday, but surface
high pressure will remain in near proximity, keeping wind speeds
less than 10 knots.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...PWB