662
FXUS64 KMEG 171730
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1226 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

- Hot and humid conditions will continue today. Heat indices will
  range between 105 and 112 this afternoon. Very warm and humid
  conditions will prevail overnight.

- Triple digit heat indices will persist into the upcoming
  weekend, though scattered showers and thunderstorms will
  provide localized relief from the heat.

- The heat will return and intensify next week, with dangerous
  heat indices at or above 110 expected over most of the Midsouth
  by Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Another hot and humid day is underway for the Mid-South. A
stationary cold front is currently situated just north of the AR/MO
and TN/KY state lines, which is trapping us on the hot and humid
side of the boundary. Today`s afternoon heat indices will range from
105 to 112 degrees, with the hottest conditions in the MS Delta. As
such, an Extreme Heat Warning is in effect today for that area with
a Heat Advisory elsewhere. We will most likely continue needing heat
headlines tomorrow, but the 105+ areas are not necessarily a slam
dunk like they are today. The exact areas for headlines tomorrow
will be decided by subsequent shifts.

Like we`ve seen over the last several weeks (and will continue to
see the rest of this week), moisture is just present enough to
support scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon. These will be
mostly single cell thunderstorms that move very slowly and produce
brief downpours and frequent lightning. This afternoon, 25-30 kts of
bulk shear up near the frontal boundary (north of I-40) will be
marginally supportive of microbursts with damaging winds. Will note
that this is a very low confidence risk, especially because storms
may fire up north of our area altogether this afternoon. Overall,
expect very sporadic coverage of storms in our northern area this
afternoon with very localized gusty winds.

Moving into the weekend, the forecast becomes more wet and unsettled
due to remnants of tropical moisture. An area of broad low pressure
in the northern Gulf made its best attempt to form into a tropical
cyclone, but alas, it has remained a disorganized system of showers
and thunderstorms. This system will be nothing more than an inverted
trough by the time we see any rainfall from it. Impacts will be
limited to increased PoPs (widespread 30-40%) for north Mississippi
and West TN on Saturday and Sunday. This is by no means a washout,
but it will help keep our heat indices below criteria for the vast
majority of the area this weekend. Heat ramps back up early next
week.

Midlevel ridging returns as early as Monday, but certainly by
Tuesday for the eastern CONUS. We`ll settle back into the pattern of
hot and humid afternoons with heat indices above 100 degrees. Heat
headline decisions will likely be made on a day-to-day basis just
given minor points of model disagreement that will only be resolved
in the near term forecast. The 6-10 day temperature outlook for mid
to late July depicts an 80-90% chance of above normal temperatures
("normal" is already in the low 90s), so it`s looking like this heat
is here to stay for the foreseeable future.

CAD

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

A near-persistence forecast. Do see some Cu developing on satellite,
but thermodynamic profiles do not appear too supportive of
thunderstorm development near or at the terminals. Forecast
soundings look a bit better for convection tomorrow as Gulf
moisture feeds into the area so PROB30s will be warranted next TAF
cycle.

DNM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Hot and mostly dry conditions continue, with the exception of
isolated single cell thunderstorms today and tomorrow afternoons.
Moving into the weekend, wetting rain looks more likely for north
MS and west TN due to remnant Gulf moisture, though it is by no
means a washout.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-018-026>028-
     036.

MO...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MSZ001>006-008-009-
     013>017-021>024.

TN...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TNZ001>004-019>022-
     048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...DNM