541
FXUS64 KMEG 240432
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1132 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1017 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

- The current heat wave will persist through the remainder of the
  work week. Daily heat headlines are anticipated as heat index
  values exceed 105 degrees.

- Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms will occur each day
  through at least midweek, but provide little to no relief from
  the heat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Sunday)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

A few showers and thunderstorms have persisted for much of the day
in north Mississippi near the Alabama State line and west
Tennessee near the Tennessee River. Isolated storms are possible
elsewhere, but most of the Midsouth will remain hot and dry for
the next several days. Early afternoon temperatures are within a
degree or two of where they have been at this time for the last
couple of days and will likely top out between 92 and 95 degrees
across most of the area. Heat indices should be in the 102 to 107
degree range.

Persistence is generally our best forecast tool in these stagnate
patterns. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible each
afternoon tomorrow through Friday but most of us will remain hot
and dry. Expect high temperatures in the middle 90s and heat
indices in the 102 to 107 degree range. Extended the Heat Advisory
through Friday.

Late Friday there are some signs that the ridge may begin to
break down resulting in a slightly better chance of rain. However,
latest NBM guidance still keeps high temperatures in the middle
90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1017 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

This set of TAFs is once again a persistence forecast. Included
PROB30s for all sites with afternoon convection tomorrow/Tuesday
that looks to mirror exactly what we saw today: sparse coverage of
TSRAs after 18Z with a Cu field. Light south winds during the
daylight hours and nearly calm overnight.

CAD

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Hot and dry conditions are expected to continue for the
foreseeable future although an isolated afternoon thunderstorm
cannot be ruled out. Min RH`s will likely range from the middle
50s to low 60s.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Friday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-
     036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Friday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Friday for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Friday for TNZ001>004-019>022-
     048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...CAD