883
FXUS64 KMEG 101709
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1209 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

- Warm and humid summer days will continue across the Mid-South
  with highs in the 90s over the next seven days.

- Heat Advisories across portions of the Mid-South are anticipated
  each day as heat indices between 105 to 110 are expected.

- Isolated shower and thunderstorm chances will exist each
  afternoon through at least Wednesday, primarily east of the
  Mississippi River.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Sunday)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

A warm day is already in play across the Mid-South as 594 dam
ridding from the four corners region has begun to infiltrate into
the Mississippi Valley. Current temperatures have already climbed
into the upper 80s to lower 90s with triple digit heat indices in
some places. As we head into the afternoon hours, we`ll continue
to warm into the mid 90s mainly along and west of the Mississippi
River. These areas are also expected to see heat indices in
excess of 105F warranting a Heat Advisory remaining in effect
through 8PM this evening. As with the past few days, heading into
peak daytime heating this afternoon, primarily diurnally driven
pop-up showers and thunderstorms are anticipated. Once again,
we`re looking at a high CAPE and low shear environment, typical
with summertime convection. As far as values go, forecast
soundings are indicating upwards of 2500 J/kg of SBCAPE, around
15 kts of effective shear, 0-3km lapse rates around 8.0 C/km, and
PWATs around 1.8". Something to note: we don`t have as great of
an environment nor quite as much moisture as yesterday, however,
stronger thunderstorms could dip into enough instability to
create a tall enough updraft for a damaging wind gust or two,
with the best coverage over north Mississippi.

Moving through the week, temperatures will continue to warm with
dewpoints in the low to mid 70s as aforementioned ridging and a
secondary 597dam ridge over the southeastern CONUS continue to
broaden and heights continue to rise. A pretty decent dewpoint
spread exists across deterministic and ensemble members with HREF
trending lower, in the low 70s and the GFS/NBM trending higher in
the mid to upper 70s. Depending on how high dewpoints are able to
climb, will greatly determine how high heat indices become.
Nonetheless, Heat Advisories will be warranted across at least
portions of the Mid-South each day as heat indices increase to
105+F. As far as shower and thunderstorm chances go, moving into
mid-week, as heights increase, chances decrease. Though, pop-up,
diurnally driven activity can`t be ruled out each afternoon,
especially east of the Mississippi River.

As we approach the latter half of the week and into the weekend,
guidance continues to trend warmer as ridging of the southeastern
CONUS looks to dominate the Mid-South with little to no influence
from troughing to our north. Previous runs were pushing us more
into a northwest flow regime with troughing digging further
south, however, confidence in this solution continues to
decrease. There remains around a 4-5 degree spread in high
temperatures late week and into the weekend, but the 10th
percentile is in the upper 90s with the 90th percentile in the
lower 100s. Bottom line, it will be hot for the foreseeable
future. If ridging holds strong rain chances will also continue
to decrease, potentially creating a dry spell beginning Thursday
and lasting through at least the seven day period. Even if a
northwest flow regime is able to infiltrate into the Mid-South,
given how strong this ridge looks to become we will be hot and
humid despite a potential shift in the upper pattern. Heat
indices in excess of 110F are not out of the question.

AEH

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are anticipated
to develop again this afternoon during peak heating. Coverage
will be highest over N MS where deeper moisture resides. Short-
term models continue to struggle on location and coverage of
convection thus will continue with PROB30 groups at all sites
except JBR. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail
outside of convection with south winds between 7-11 kts during
the day and light at night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Fire weather danger will remain at a minimum for the foreseeable
future as minimum relative humidity values continue to stay above
40% alongside light 20 ft winds across the region. Outside of
isolated shower and thunderstorm chances mainly over north
Mississippi in the afternoons, primarily dry conditions will
exist as temperatures increase.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-018-026>028-
     035-036-048-049-058.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ009-018-
     026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-115.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ001-007-008-
     010>012-020.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ001-007-008-
     010>012-020.

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TNZ001>003-019-020-
     048>051-088-089.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TNZ001>004-
     019>022-048>055-088>090.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...CJC