019
FXUS64 KMEG 111158
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
658 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 658 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

- Warm and humid summer days will continue across the Mid-South
  with highs in the 90s over the next seven days.

- Heat Advisories across portions of the Mid-South are anticipated
  each day as heat indices will remain between 105 to 109.

- Isolated shower and thunderstorm chances will exist each
  afternoon through Wednesday, primarily east of the Mississippi
  River.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 1039 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Warm conditions continue this evening as a heat wave shifts into
high gear across much of the central and southern CONUS. The main
feature responsible is an amplifying ridge that will span much of
the Southern CONUS in the coming days with 594 dm heights over
the region by Tuesday afternoon. As such, highs Tuesday are
expected to be in the 90s with heat indices well above 100 F.
Portions of the region, especially with westward extent towards
the Mississippi River, will experience afternoon heat indices
between 105 - 109 F, prompting a Heat Advisory for these areas.
Some potential exists for afternoon convection across portions of
northern Mississippi and West Tennessee near the Tennessee River
Valley. However, convective coverage appears to be low at this
time, which will decrease the level of cooling for these areas.
Any showers or storms will only be capable of locally gusty winds
and heavy downpours through sunset.

The ridging will slightly weaken on Wednesday as an area of low-
amplitude troughing makes its way south from the Midwest.
However, models indicate that its presence will be insufficient
to promote both cooler temperatures and precipitation. Highs will
still reach into the 90s, approaching 100 across portions of
eastern Arkansas, with heat indices well above 100 across the
entire region. Areas near and to the west of the Mississippi
River will have heat index values potentially approaching 110 F.
With the absence of precipitation, heat products will be needed
for much of the Mid-South again on Wednesday.

The rest of the week follows a similar trend with the ridging
returning and scorching heat continuing to plague the southern
CONUS. PoPs drop off precipitously, eventually nearing zero by
Thursday which lasts through this weekend. Therefore, no
appreciable cooling or relief is expected and heat products are
expected to be needed for much, if not all, of the Mid-South by
the end of the week. Looking forward to next week also doesn`t
yield promising signs of cooling with ensembles favoring the
existence of the ridge through at least Tuesday. So, expect the
heat to stick around and remember to stay hydrated and take
frequent breaks from exposure to the sun!

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 658 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Strengthening upper-level high pressure will maintain prevailing
VFR conditions across all terminals through the period. GFS LAMP
supports persistent southerly winds throughout the period, with
no significant operational impacts anticipated. Isolated SHRAs
and TSRAs will be confined to areas near TUP, but confidence is
too low to mention in the TAF.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1039 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Expect low fire weather danger through the forecast period, with
a high chance through the end of the week as minimum relative
humidity values remain above 40% amidst light 20 ft winds.
Precipitation chances will gradually diminish through Wednesday
as a drier pattern enters the forecast thereafter.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ001-007-008-010>012-020.

TN...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>090.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...AC3