583
FXUS64 KMEG 191957
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
257 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Upper level high pressure will continue to build into the Mid-
South through early next week. This will lead to above normal
temperatures and continued dry conditions. Little to no rainfall
is expected over the next 7 days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

The latest surface analysis places an expansive 1036mb high
pressure over the eastern CONUS with a large stationary front
strewn from Ontario, Canada southwest through the center of the
CONUS and back into northern Mexico. Surface high pressure will
remain in place through early next week and upper level high
pressure will simultaneously amplify over the Lower Mississippi
Valley. This will lead to above normal temperatures and
continued dry conditions. Temperatures will peak in the mid 80s by
Wednesday next week. The main weather impact will be slightly
elevated fire danger as temperatures climb into the lower 80s and
relative humidity drops into the 30 percent range. Opted to
undercut NBM guidance for both minimum temperatures and dewpoints
throughout much of the forecast period, as the NBM has been
overdoing both.

A large trough will descend into the Upper Mississippi and Ohio
River Valleys by the middle of next week. This will help push a
weak cold front through the region next Wednesday. With limited
moisture in place, no appreciable rainfall is expected. There is a
hint of some moisture return next weekend as surface high
pressure slides east and a few weak shortwaves translate through
northwest flow aloft. However, forcing looks to remain weak and
hopes for wetting rain look dismal at best. Temperatures will
remain above normal with continued dry conditions through the end
of the month. With zero rainfall in the books thus far, October
2024 could go down as one of driest Octobers for several of our
climate sites.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1158 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

VFR conditions prevail as high pressure continues to dominate.
Winds will remain light and should vary between E and NE.

CAD

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...CAD