538
FXUS64 KMEG 221123
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
523 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 423 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Cool and dry weather will continue today. Northwest winds will
gradually weaken as high pressure approaches from the west. High
temperatures this afternoon will only reach the lower to mid 50s.

After a chilly night tonight, Saturday`s high temperatures will
warm to within a few degrees of normal. Southerly winds will bring
a warming trend, with daytime highs reaching the lower 70s over
most of the Midsouth. A late Monday cold frontal passage will
bring a brief chance rain, followed by cooler temperatures on
Tuesday. Cool and rainy conditions appear likely for the
Thanksgiving holiday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 423 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

A highly-amplified and progressive pattern will prevail over the
U.S. through the end of next week. Large temperature swings are
expected over the Midsouth, but at this time, wintry precipitation
does not appear likely.

We start the forecast this morning with a deep 527dam 500mb low
centered over the central/northern Appalachians, and upstream
ridge over the Great Plains. As the upper low lifts out, the
upstream ridge will deamplify and move into the MS River Valley by
Sunday. Across the Midsouth, zonal flow aloft will overspread
southerly return flow at the surface, bringing milder conditions.
Temperatures will peak on Monday, ahead of an upper trough lifting
through the middle and upper MS River Valley. An accompanying
Pacific cold front will pass through the Midsouth late Monday.
Prefrontal moisture will be sufficient to support scattered to
numerous showers along the front, with PWAT briefly reaching 1.25
inches. Modest instability should limit thunderstorm coverage.

Following fair and cooler conditions on Tuesday, the pattern gets
more interesting for the latter half of next week. The upper flow
appears split off the west coast, consolidating downstream over
the Great Basin and southern Rockies. Both GFS and ECMWF models
depict rain developing over the Midsouth late Wednesday and
Thanksgiving holiday, aided by our position under the right
entrance region of a northern branch jet streak and the left exit
region of a southern branch jet streak. During this period, PWATs
will most likely range from 1 inch near the MO bootheel, to 1.5
inches south of Tupelo, MS. Thermal profiles will be supportive of
rainfall through the Thanksgiving Day afternoon. Model consensus
is relatively high in ending precipitation with the passage of a
midlevel trough and surface cold front Thursday evening. Fair
and cool conditions will prevail next Friday and Saturday,
possibly followed by a reinforcing cold front on the following
Sunday.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 523 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Guidance continues to bring an area of low stratus into the
airspace today, primarily impacting MKL. Impacts to other
terminals will be dependent on how far southwest the deck pushes.
Added low VFR CIGs in at MEM and TUP to account for this. Patchy
fog may develop near JBR overnight as winds decrease. Otherwise,
expect northwest winds through the period.

ANS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...ANS