766
FXUS64 KMEG 192318
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
618 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 618 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

- Heat products are in effect for the entire Mid-South through Tuesday
  evening for heat index values between 105 and 112 degrees.

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for parts of east-central Arkansas
  and north Mississippi on Wednesday.

- Showers and thunderstorms will increase through this evening and
  continue into Wednesday as a cold front moves into the region.
  There is a low chance of a few strong thunderstorms with gusty
  winds.

- Temperatures will trend cooler behind the front through the end
  of the week. By Friday, highs will be in the upper 80s and mid
  90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Monday)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Upper level high pressure remains over the region along with a hot
and humid airmass. Temps are already in the mid 90s in most
locations and low 100s will be common across a large part of the Mid-
South this afternoon. An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect
along and west of the MS River with a Heat Advisory for the
remainder of the area.

A weak cold front and mid level shortwave moving south through the
MS River Valley will help to kick off storms from north central AR
into SE MO and southern IL later today. These storms will drift into
the Mid-South late this afternoon and this evening. Fairly deep
moisture across the area combined with intense surface heating will
create plenty of instability. There is little shear but steep low-
mid level lapse rates could produce some gusty winds in the stronger
storms. The latest hi-res models show that convection could continue
to percolate overnight.

The weak front and shortwave will continue to push through the area
on Wednesday. Northern sections will start to see some relief from
the heat on Wednesday though parts of north Mississippi and east-
central Arkansas will see one more day of advisory level heat. The
latest HREF indicates that the best chance for showers and storms
will be south of I-40 by Wednesday afternoon. Would not be surprised
if a few of these were strong with gusty winds.

Behind the cold front expect less humid air to filer in on northerly
winds for the end of the work week with highs in a more manageable
upper 80s to lower 90s range. The upper ridge makes a brief comeback
on Saturday which will push highs up toward the mid 90s again but
the good news is that the humidity remains low.

A reinforcing cold front will push through by Sunday leading to even
more pleasant weather as a deep trough develops over the Great
Lakes. Much cooler and drier air is on tap for early next week with
highs in the 80s and lows well into the 60s, maybe even upper 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Thunderstorms will continue to impact the airspace through sunset,
with lingering showers continuing into the overnight hours. A
prominent outflow boundary currently sits over northern Shelby
County, trekking towards MEM. Surface observation sites measured
winds associated with this boundary near 35kts. These winds will
move into the terminal within the hour. Rain and wind impacts
should cease by 08Z with VFR CIGs continuing through the period.
Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated Wednesday afternoon
near MEM and TUP.

ANS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Fire weather concerns will remain low through the remainder of the
work week. Hot and humid conditions will prevail through Wednesday.
A cold front will slowly move through the region tonight and
Wednesday resulting in an increase in wetting rains chances. Drier
and slightly cooler air will filter in behind the front through the
end of the week. Winds will be mostly light this week.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-018-
     026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ058.

MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-115.

MS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ001-007-
     008-010>012-020.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for MSZ007-010>012-020.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ002>006-009-
     013>017.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for MSZ021>024.

TN...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TNZ001-002-
     019-048-049-088.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TNZ003-004-020>022-
     050>055-089>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...ANS