175
FXUS64 KMEG 110000
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
700 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 659 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

- A cold front will bring scattered rain chances to a large part
  of the Mid-South through early Saturday, offering some minor
  heat and drought relief.

- Drier weather returns Sunday into next week as high pressure
  strengthens, maintaining dry and above-normal temperatures
  across the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 122 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Surface analysis indicates weak low pressure over northeast
Arkansas, with a boundary extending northeast toward Paducah, KY,
and southwest into the ArkLaTex. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms persist near this feature. Water vapor imagery
shows broad zonal flow across the Southeast, anchored by a weak
upper-level trough over the Southern Plains.

Modest height falls interacting with moderate instability (MLCAPE
~2000 J/kg) and ~25 kt bulk shear will support multicell clusters
through early evening, capable of producing 30-50 mph wind gusts.
Gust potential will diminish post-sunset as instability wanes and
low-level capping develops. Training convective cells remain a
secondary concern overnight as upper-level flow runs parallel to
the stalling frontal boundary near I-40, though confidence in
localized flooding remains low.

The upper trough will slowly cross the Mid-South through Friday,
lowering 500mb heights to ~586 dam. Debris cloudiness and a
positively tilted trough axis will limit severe organization, but
scattered diurnally enhanced convection (40-60% PoPs) is
expected. Increased cloud cover and convective outflow will hold
high temperatures down, keeping heat indices in the mid-to-upper
90s.

Excessive heat returns Sunday through mid-week as a strong
~594 dam ridge expands eastward. High confidence in LREF ensemble
guidance points to building heat headlines and worsening drought
conditions across the region.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 659 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

A weak cold front and associated outflow boundaries will result
in isolated to scattered TSRAs/SHRAs along and north of I-40 this
evening, gradually dissipating overnight with loss of heating.
There is a good chance of MVFR cigs at JBR early Friday morning,
north of the front. SHRAs/TSRAs will re-develop Friday afternoon,
mainly along and east of the MS River. Winds will be mostly light
outside of TSRAs and generally NE to the north of the front
(JBR), variable along the front (MEM, MKL), and light southerly
to the south of the front (TUP).

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 122 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

A front will cross the region Friday into Saturday, bringing
higher relative humidity (above 40%), a shift to northerly winds,
and scattered wetting rain chances. Strong high pressure will
return on Sunday and bring high heat and dry conditions back to
the region through the middle part of next week.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...SJM