536
FXUS64 KMEG 031748
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1248 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1036 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

-Severe weather chances and very heavy rainfall are expected to
continue through Saturday.

-An Enhanced Risk of severe weather is in effect Thursday,Friday and
Saturday.

-A High Risk of excessive rainfall is in effect today and Saturday with
 a Moderate Risk on Thursday.

-Five day total rainfall amounts are in the 10 to 15 inch range
along and north of I-40. This is not your average flood risk.
Generational flooding with devastating impacts is possible.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1036 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Getting ahead of things, we have another active severe weather day
ahead for the Midsouth beginning early this afternoon. A
stationary boundary, currently positioned east to west across the
middle of the CWA, is progged to slowly shift north throughout
the day due to diurnal mixing. To its south, the atmosphere
continues to destabilize with SPC mesoanalysis displaying upwards
of 2000+ MLCAPE over N MS. Instability will continue to rise into
the afternoon south of the boundary. This rise of instability and
gradual isentropic lift is expected to allow convective
development along and to the south of the boundary around 17z.

The environment today will be characterized by a corridor of
favorable ingredients for supercells across N MS, E AR, and SW TN.
0-6km bulk shear will be greater than 50 knots and effective SRH
around 300 m2/s2. SRH values will be maximized near the surface
boundary and could locally be enhanced due to both storm motion
and backing surface winds. This will result in several storms to
the north and south of the boundary where a few will follow this
favorable corridor for several hours this afternoon. These storms
will be capable of all severe hazards, including the chance for
strong tornadoes, especially at and just to the south of the
stationary boundary.

In addition to the severe threat, training storms will be likely
today and tonight. Rainfall amounts have eclipsed 3-4 inches in
most areas over the past 24 hours with some locales experiencing
up to 6. Therefore, soils are very saturated and will reject new
rainfall very easily. WPC has issued a High risk for flash
flooding through tonight across much of the region. Pay attention
to warnings and do not drive through flooded roadways!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Severe weather is still ongoing at the 3 AM hour across the Mid-
South. Several confirmed tornadoes were experienced across the area
yesterday and into the overnight hours. Our hearts go out to all the
communities who were effected and will awake to decimated
communities. Unfortunately, severe weather is still in the forecast
for the next several days alongside a dual threat of generational
flooding.

A stalled frontal boundary will linger at least 30% chances of
severe weather through Saturday. Instability to the south of the
front is still favorable of a strong to severe thunderstorm. As this
front remains parked, it will provide enough lift and bursts of
energy to need to be monitored for a few storms with all hazards at
play. This pattern will continue until the front clears the area.
Saturday. The primary hazards for the next few days is largely
damaging wind gusts and hail, a tornado cannot be ruled out. The
tornado threat is a bit higher for areas where the air mass has not
been contaminated by such heavy rainfall.

Generational flash, river, and areal flooding is all possible. Maxed
out perceptible water values for three convective days, training
storms extremely likely, and any convective development increasing
localized amounts has QPF values forecast to be in the 10-15 inch
range. The area likely to see such high amounts will be along and
north of I-40. Considerable flash flooding, especially in urbanized
areas, is expected. Never drive through flooded waters, and flooded
roadways are significantly more difficult to see at night. The axis
of heavy rainfall could still very easily shift so be sure to
continue to monitor the forecast.

While some rivers and streams have already shown a response from
last nights rainfall, soils will soon also show a response. They will
become supersaturated and leave no option but to reject all the
additional rain as runoff. Flash flooding will emerge as a primary
concern with this extremely active pattern. In addition, all of this
rainfall will make tree limbs very weak and easily breakable. It is
best to not only prepare for flooding, but power outages as well.
High and Moderate Risks for excessive rainfall are in effect through
Saturday.

Once the front is forced out of the area by a reinforcing cold
front, dry and cooler conditions return Monday morning. Until then,
stay safe.

DNM

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Showers and thunderstorms will continue through most of the TAF
cycle at MEM, MKL, and JBR with only scattered thunderstorms at TUP
this afternoon and evening. MVFR and occasional IFR conditions will
occur in heavier showers and thunderstorms. Prevailing winds will
be 10-15kt gusts 20-25kt from the NE at MEM, MKL, and JBR north
of a stationary boundary veering to the S as the boundary moves
northward Friday.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-
     036-048-049-058.

MO...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MOZ113-115.

MS...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MSZ001>005-007-008-
     010>014-020.

     Flood Watch from late Friday night through Sunday afternoon for
     MSZ006-009-015>017-021>024.

TN...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for TNZ001>004-019>022-
     048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...SWC