714
FXUS64 KMEG 031900
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
200 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 200 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

- Warm and dry conditions expected for Independence Day. High
  temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s.

- High temperatures and humidity will increase each day through
  the weekend. Rain chances will remain low (less than 15%)
  through the weekend before increasing again next week (30%-40%).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Another pleasant day across the Mid-South with some scattered
clouds and temperatures currently in the mid to upper 80s. Dew
point temperatures have remained in the upper 60s, which is
manageable considering it is July. Mostly clear skies will prevail
overnight with light winds, which could lead to some patchy fog
in low-lying areas. Any fog that develops overnight will quickly
mix out following sunrise.

A rather benign pattern is expected to continue through the
weekend, with upper-level ridging into early next week. For those
with outdoor plans on Independence Day, no significant weather
hazards are expected. High temperatures will be in the low to mid
90s across the area with heat index values approaching 100 by the
afternoon, so some caution is advised if you will be outside for
prolonged periods. Surface winds will begin to shift back to the
south by Saturday, with increasing moisture to the region. This
will lead to dew point temperatures returning to the 70s and heat
index values reaching back into the low 100s. While most of the
Mid-South will not need any heat products, portions of the
Mississippi Delta will close in on 105 by Sunday and could need a
Heat Advisory. Something to watch into later forecast packages.

Upper-level ridging will begin to give way to quasi-zonal flow
into next week, with a couple of weak shortwaves passing through
by midweek. As such, precipitation chances will likely begin to
increase by Monday, with higher chances (50 to 60%) by the middle
of next week. High temperatures will likely return to near normal
through this period, with highs generally in the low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

VFR conditions with northerly winds around 5 kts, becoming light
and easterly overnight through the end of the current TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

No major fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future. MinRH
values will remain above 40%, with generally light winds through
the weekend.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...CMA