233
FXUS64 KMEG 311731
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1231 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

- Dangerous heat and humidity will continue across the Mid-South,
  with Heat Advisories in effect for the region.

- A potential pattern change is on the horizon for Sunday offering
  the possibility of relief from the heat by early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Sunday)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

A 595 dam ridge remains centered over the Ozarks with return flow
advecting Gulf moisture into the Mid-South. Temperatures are
running 1-5 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago as the ridge is
expanding across the region. A Heat Advisory is in effect for
portions of the Mid-South with heat index values up to 109 this
afternoon. The hottest heat index values will be felt in the
Delta Region.

A rather stagnant forecast period as the aforementioned ridge
continues to influence the Mid-South. Another Heat Advisory is in
effect tomorrow from 12 PM - 8 PM for eastern Arkansas, the
Missouri Bootheel, and portions of north Mississippi and West
Tennessee. Expansion and additional advisories are likely for the
rest of the week as the synoptic pattern is dominated by the
ridge. A few diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms could be
embedded in any shortwaves propagating through the region, but
confidence is low due to dry air aloft and a weak wind profile.

The first glimpse of a pattern change appears to be Sunday as
weak troughing emerges off the coast of Maine. This trough may
stretch a backdoor cold front and filter in drier air on Sunday
into next week which would bring relief from dangerous heat. In
the meantime, the hot and humid pattern is here to stay. Practice
heat safety and check on sensitive groups.

DNM

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

High confidence in VFR conditions at all terminals with light
s/sw winds through the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

A persistent upper-level ridge will dominate the Mid-South over
the next three days, bringing oppressive heat and prolonged dry
conditions across the region.  While overall fire weather threat
levels remain low to slightly elevated due to light winds and
minimum relative humidity (RH) values staying at or above 30%,
the lack of rainfall will continue to dry out 10-hour and 100-
hour surface fuels. Fog potential will be minimal across most of
the region, restricted mainly to localized river valleys.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-018-026>028-
     035-036-048-049-058.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ009-018-
     026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-115.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ001-007-008-
     010>012-020.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ001-007-008-
     010>012-020.

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TNZ001>004-019-020-
     048>051-088-089.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TNZ001>004-019-
     020-048>051-088-089.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...SJM