314
FXUS64 KMEG 311722
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1222 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

- Heat indices are expected to rise as high as 105 degrees across
  portions of east Arkansas and northwest Mississippi today,
  warranting a Heat Advisory through 8PM.

- Increased shower and thunderstorm chances return to the
  Mid-South today and will linger into tomorrow with a potential
  localized heavy rainfall threat both days.

- Near to slightly below normal temperatures will continue behind
  a cold front late this weekend and are expected to last into
  early next week with temperatures in the 80s and low 90s. By
  mid-week, we will begin to increase above normal with potential
  Heat Advisories anticipated.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Cooler dewpoints (readings in the upper 60s to lower 70s)
continue to filter in leading to a relatively pleasant day across
much of the Mid-South. However, portions of eastern Arkansas and
western north Mississippi, where pesky mid 70 dewpoints remain,
are under a Heat Advisory with heat indices up to 109F expected
through 8PM. Shower and thunderstorm chances will also begin to
increase and spread across our area today as a warm front,
currently extending from Monroe County Mississippi through north
central Arkansas, lifts north.

The latest KNQA radar sweep indicates a line of showers with a
few rumbles of thunder over northeastern Arkansas and the
Missouri Bootheel. As we edge into the afternoon hours, overall
coverage of showers and thunderstorms will begin to slowly
increase. A window for a few strong to severe thunderstorms will
open up as a 30-40 kt low-level jet begins to kick in. As this
jet kicks in, forecast soundings indicate around 1700 J/kg of
SBCAPE, 20-25 kts of effective shear, DCAPE of around 500, and
mid, low-level lapse rates around 5.8 C/km, and slightly curved
hodographs. This environment may support a few strong to severe
thunderstorms that could have enough upscale growth to produce
damaging wind gusts and potentially a brief spin up tornado
through the early evening hours. Moving closer to sunset, a
slightly positively titled trough, currently over the Midwest,
will begin to push east into the Upper-Mississippi Valley. This
trough will also eject a cold front across the Mid-South this
evening. Scattered to numerous shower and thunderstorm chances
will form ahead of this front as PWATs begin to surge to near the
climatological maximum for this time of year, 2.2-2.5". As we
move a few hours past sunset, convective inhibition looks to
increase, likely cutting off our window for severe thunderstorms.
Though, with surging PWATs we may transition into more of a heavy
rainfall threat as we head into the late evening to overnight
hours. Isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms,
greatest thunder potential along the Tennessee River, will linger
into the day tomorrow as the aforementioned trough pushes into
the southern Ohio River Valley. Though, largely pleasant
conditions will fall across the Mid-South Saturday with partly
cloudy skies and temperatures ranging from the low 80s to low
90s.

Behind the aforementioned cold front, it will feel more like late
September as opposed to early August with highs in the upper 70s
to mid 80s Sunday and Monday morning lows in the mid 60s to low
70s. Isolated to scattered shower chances will also exist on
Sunday mainly over West Tennessee, the area closest to the
aforementioned trough. Monday will be a near rinse and repeat of
Sunday, just a tad warmer as nearly north flow builds in aloft.
Pushing past Monday, we`re looking largely dry and will begin a
warming trend through late week as upper-level ridging begins to
broaden east. Though dewpoints aren`t expected to surge into the
upper 70s, they could teeter into the mid 70s, potentially
warranting Heat Advisories as early as Wednesday. Enjoy the
cooler start to August while it lasts.

AEH

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Two rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected across the
Mid-South through tonight. Initial activity will impact JBR and
MEM starting early this afternoon, followed by a more widespread
round overnight accompanying a cold front. Forecast timing leans
on the latest HRRR, consistent with ongoing convection in eastern
Arkansas. South to southwest winds of 5-10 kts will increase to
10-12 kts tonight at JBR, MKL, and MEM. Behind the front
tomorrow, winds will shift west-northwest at approximately 12 kts
with gusts up to 20 kts, while speeds at TUP should remain 3-
6 kts lower than at other sites. Non-convective wind shear may be
borderline ahead of tonight`s convection, but confidence is too
low to include it, especially given the existing TS in the TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Increased humidity and wetting rain chances will mitigate any
fire weather concerns throughout the forecast period.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ035-048-049-058.

MO...None.
MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ007-010>012-020-
     021.

TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...JDS