517
FXUS64 KMEG 121130
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
630 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 621 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

- Dry and warm conditions are expected today with high
  temperatures reaching the mid to upper 70s.

- Showers and scattered thunderstorms will move across the region
  starting tonight and continuing into Thursday. Some hail and
  gusty winds will be possible across portions of northwest
  Mississippi late tonight and over northeast Mississippi on
  Thursday.

- Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected from Friday
  afternoon through Saturday night, with the potential for some
  severe thunderstorms both days. There continues to be some
  uncertainty regarding the timing and severity of these storms,
  so continue to monitor the forecast for the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

Skies are clear across the Mid-South early this morning with
temperatures mid 40s to lower 60s. Currently, high pressure is
located over the eastern Gulf coast.

This high will help give the Mid-South dry and warm weather for
today. Temperatures will be quite warm for this time of year with
highs in the mid to upper 70s. Low pressure over northeast Oklahoma
with a cold front extending south will move east tonight and
Thursday. Showers and some thunderstorms will develop ahead of
this front tonight and Thursday and move into the region. Some of
the thunderstorms could produce gusty winds and hail across
portions of northwest Mississippi late tonight and over parts of
northeast Mississippi on Thursday. Temperatures will remain on the
mild side tonight and Thursday. Lows Thursday morning with be in
the mid 50s to around 60 degrees. Highs on Thursday will be in the
low to mid 70s.

This cold front will weaken and fall apart Thursday night with dry
weather and continued warm temperatures for Thursday night through
Friday morning. An intense storm system is forecast to develop
over the central Plains by Friday morning and move in the upper
Mississippi Valley by Saturday morning. The cold front associated
with this storm system will reach western Arkansas by Friday
evening and be near the Mississippi River by Saturday morning.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
ahead of the front and reach the Mid-South by Friday evening. Some
of the thunderstorms could be severe Friday night with damaging
winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes possible. Outside of the
thunderstorms, windy conditions are expected mainly over western
sections of the Mid-South for Friday afternoon and evening.

As the cold front moves east into the Mid-South on Saturday, low
pressure is expected to move north along the front through the
region. This could enhance the development of showers and
thunderstorms on Saturday with the possibility of more severe
thunderstorms developing ahead of the front.

With the cold front east of the region on Sunday, dry weather with
more seasonable temperatures is expected. Dry weather will
continue into Monday and Tuesday with temperatures gradually
warming back into the low to mid 70s by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

VFR conditions and gusty S winds expected today at TAF sites. An
upper-level low will move across the Lower MS Valley tonight into
Thursday. VCSH is possible at at most sites late tonight with the
potential for some elevated TS at TUP towards sunrise Thursday. A
PROB30 for TS was included at MEM between 9-14Z Thursday. VFR
conditions should prevail for most of the period with a potential
for temporary MVFR conditions possible at MEM and perhaps TUP
towards the end of the period.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ARS
AVIATION...CJC