Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
795 FXUS64 KMEG 111107 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 607 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 604 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 - A typical summertime pattern will continue through the upcoming week. High temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 90s with heat indices climbing into the low 100s by midweek. - Rain chances will increase Tuesday through Thursday, peaking in the 40 to 70 percent range. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 1025 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Another pleasant overnight period across the Mid-South, with some scattered clouds moving across north MS currently. As a high-level overview of the upcoming forecast, a typical summertime pattern does look probable across the Mid-South. Into Monday, a lingering upper-level ridge over the eastern U.S. will begin to breakdown, but not before providing the Mid-South with one more day of mostly dry conditions. While a stray shower or two cannot be ruled out in the afternoon, coverage should remain widely isolated. High temperatures will be similar to Sunday, with highs generally in the low 90s. By Tuesday, a very weak upper-level trough will drift eastward, with surface return flow becoming more southerly into Wednesday and Thursday. This pattern will allow for additional moisture to return to the Mid-South, with heat index values beginning to climb back over 100 and afternoon thunderstorm chances to increase each day. The caveat of the heat index versus thunderstorm battle will be that some locations could reach back into the low 100s, maybe even a couple of 105s, by midweek. However, this will be highly dependent on thunderstorm coverage in the afternoons. NBM guidance has PoPs generally maxing out in the 40% to 70% range in the afternoons Tuesday through Thursday, with the highest chances generally across northeast MS on Wednesday. As far as heat indices go, if anywhere were to reach the 105 mark by Wednesday and Thursday it would likely be the MS delta and a small portion of eastern AR, but uncertainty remains. Nevertheless, high temperatures for much of the Mid-South will remain in the low to mid 90s, with dew point temperatures creeping back into the mid 70s. By the end of the week and heading into the weekend, there is some model spread on the eventual strength and position of a re- strengthening high pressure over the southeast US. Leaning towards a drier and therefore hotter solution at this time. However, any increase in moisture could bump those afternoon thunderstorm chances back up and thus lower afternoon highs. Nonetheless, a typical summertime pattern across the Mid-South appears probable with temperatures remaining at to just above normal for the foreseeable future. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 604 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 High pressure aloft will keep light surface winds and VFR CIGs through the period. A stray SHRA can`t be entirely ruled out this afternoon, but confidence remains too low to include in TAFs. ANS && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1025 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 No major fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future. MinRH values will remain above 50%, with scattered thunderstorm chances (40% to 60%) Tuesday through Thursday. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA AVIATION...ANS