001
FXUS64 KMEG 140430
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1130 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1129 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

- Hot and humid conditions continue across the Mid-South. High
  temperatures will generally be in the low to mid 90s,
  increasing to the mid to upper 90s this weekend.

- A Heat Advisory is in effect both today across portions of
  eastern Arkansas and northwest Mississippi, where heat index
  values will rise just above 105 degrees.

- Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will develop Thursday
  afternoon, mainly along and south of Interstate 40.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Lingering showers and thunderstorms exited northeast Mississippi
earlier Thursday evening. Since then mid and high clouds have
thinned, enhancing radiational cooling. Rain cooled surfaces
under clearing skies will enhance fog development. The cirrus deck
should keep coverage to patchy with locally dense areas, but if
clouds thin more than expected widespread Dense Fog is not out of
the question.

Thursday is generally a rinse and repeat of today as the longwave
trough still stretches into Texas. Another shortwave is expected to
bring showers and thunderstorms to the area tomorrow, enhanced by
peak heating. Frequent lightning, torrential rainfall leading to
localized flooding, and gusty winds are once again of concern. High
temperatures will remain in the low to mid 90s, with a few locations
seeing heat indices in the low 100s to near 105. Continued the Heat
Advisory in the MS Delta where those heat index values could exceed
105 again in the afternoon. Similar conditions will prevail again on
Friday, with the potential for additional heat headlines mainly over
similar areas.

Tropical Storm Erin will continue to propagate westward and push an
area of high pressure towards the Mid-South. This will lead to a
drier forecast and increase heat and humidity. Additional heat
headlines will likely be needed into the weekend, but will need
monitored day to day for which geographical areas the heat will
build. The CPC 6-10 day temperature outlook has the Mid-South above
normal (40-60%) temperatures from Aug 19- Aug 23, which means these
hot and humid conditions look to stick around.

DNM/PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Primary overnight concern remains fog formation. 03Z HRRR and 00Z
HREF place greatest fog potential in the TUP and MKL areas, where
rain fell Thursday afternoon and evening. Mid and high clouds
were lifting out from these areas at discussion time.

Expect slightly less coverage of TSRA Thursday afternoon relative
to Wednesday, as a a weakening upper level trough sags south.
Primary TSRA coverage will likely occur south of MEM-MKL line.

PWB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1129 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Hot and dry conditions will build into the Midsouth late this
week, persisting into early next week. Minimum daytime relative
humidity values will prevail below 50 percent, accompanied by
light winds and drying fine fuels.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ058.

MO...None.
MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for MSZ007-010-011-
     020.

TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...PWB