Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
061 FXUS64 KMEG 092259 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 559 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 557 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025 - Hot and dry conditions are expected with temperatures rising back into middle to upper 90s by this weekend. - Ongoing drought conditions will worsen by the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Monday) Issued at 1218 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025 12Z upper air analysis and GOES Water Vapor satellite depict an Omega block over the Rockies with an upper-level trough over the eastern United States. Latest surface analysis shows a 1029 mb surface high centered over New England and extending southwest into the Lower Mississippi Valley. This is resulting in mostly sunny skies and 11 AM temperatures in the middle 70s to lower 80s. A tranquil pattern is expected to persist across the Mid-South into early next week as the Omega blocking pattern shifts east towards the Mississippi Valley. Latest NAEFS and ESAT analysis indicates temperatures will increase towards the 90th percentile during this period. As a result, confidence is high with the warmer temperatures rising into the middle 90s to approaching 100 degrees as indicated by the latest NBM and other long-range datasets. Lower dewpoints will preclude any risk for Heat Advisories at this time. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 557 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025 VFR conditions continue. Light, generally southeasterly winds expected overnight. Winds will remain light into tomorrow, with some variability in direction by the afternoon across the airspace. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1218 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025 Several days without rain and lower minimum relative humidity values will result in the development of an elevated fire danger risk by this weekend. Temperatures will gradually warm back towards the middle 90s to around 100 degrees into early next week, with 20 ft winds expected to remain light through the period. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...CMA