730
FXUS64 KMEG 201115
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
615 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 609 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

- Significant river flooding will continue across portions of the
  Mid-South through this week.

- Showers and thunderstorms are likely this evening and will
  continue into the overnight hours. Some storms could become
  strong to severe between 8 PM and midnight, with damaging winds
  as the primary concern.

- Unsettled weather will continue throughout the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Surface low pressure is currently over Oklahoma, with a stationary
boundary just to our north. A couple of showers have developed
along this boundary, with a few echos currently showing up on
radar. Won`t rule out a stray shower through the morning for our
far northwest, but for the most part, the entire Mid-South will
remain dry through the vast majority of today. Expect for high
temperatures to reach the 80s by the afternoon. In addition, a
tightening pressure gradient to the west will help for winds to
pick up again across the region, with gusts upwards of 30 to 35
mph by this afternoon.

Low pressure will quickly pull northward across the Plains through
the day today, with a line of thunderstorms drifting towards our
area into this evening. The severe threat for this evening
continues to remain somewhat conditional and over a small window
of time. It will be a race against the clock as storms arrive,
with the better forcing and instability remaining to the west of
the area. Do think there will be a small window of time generally
from 8 PM to midnight where a strong to severe thunderstorm could
occur, but think this will largely depend on how intense storms
are as they move into the area. Damaging wind gusts remain the
main concern, but hail up to the size of quarters and a tornado
or two embedded within the line cannot be ruled out. Any type of
support will quickly leave as the main line crosses the
Mississippi River, with sub-severe thunderstorms traversing
eastward overnight. Frontal boundary does appear to stall across
north MS by tomorrow afternoon, keeping at least some PoPs in the
forecast into tomorrow night and Tuesday. Total QPF amounts remain
around an inch, so flash flooding looks unlikely.

By Wednesday and really through the remainder of the week, quasi-
zonal flow will develop aloft with a series of shortwaves keeping
a somewhat unsettled weather pattern across the Mid-South. Expect
for scattered showers and thunderstorms to remain in the forecast,
although with the lack of upper-level forcing the forecast does
not look too severe at this time. Total QPF amounts remain
relatively manageable, with most guidance suggesting around 1-1.5"
through the second half of the week. River levels generally along
the MS River and west continue to run high, so do not think there
will be any improvements even with the low QPF amounts. It does
not look like we will be able to break out of this messy pattern
until at least the weekend if not next week, so expect for
persistent PoPs and generally above normal high temperatures in
the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

A few showers may move across the western edge of the Mid-South
today with showers and isolated thunderstorms expected to move
across the region tonight and into the overnight hours. VFR
conditions are expected today with some MVFR ceilings expected
with the showers and thunderstorms. Winds will start out from the
southeast around 5 knots increasing to around 10 knots with higher
gusts later this morning. Winds will eventually shift to the
southwest tonight.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...ARS