650
FXUS64 KMEG 191135 AAA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
635 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 634 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

- An area-wide Heat Advisory remains in effect through 8 PM today,
  with afternoon temperatures reaching the upper 90s to lower
  100s.

- A weak cold front will bring isolated to scattered showers and
  thunderstorms early next week. Widespread significant rainfall
  is not expected.

- A slight cooling trend is expected by Wednesday, bringing
  temperatures down from near-record values to above-normal for
  late September.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 1034 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

A 596 dam ridge remains near the ArkLaTex as of Friday evening.
This ridge will continue to slowly sink southwest as troughing
digs over the Pacific Northwest. Due to the intensity of the
ridge, the area wide Heat Advisory remains in effect through 8 PM
tomorrow. The trough will gradually impinge on the ridge
projecting heights to fall to around 590 dam by Sunday morning.
Sunday, heights are projected to fall below 590 dam resulting in
low confidence in needing a Heat Advisory for Sunday. Dewpoints
are trending towards the low to mid 60s, but air temperatures
will continue to be in the upper 90s to lower 100s which brings
RH values near critical thresholds (near 20%). It does appear
winds will remain light enough to alleviate wildfire danger, but
with ongoing drought, there is a marginal concern for any small
grass fires.

A subtle synoptic change is favored for early next week as the
aforementioned trough targets a weak cold front at the Mid-South
on Monday. This will bring isolated to scattered PoPs into the
forecast during the afternoon and evening, but appreciable
rainfall is not anticipated with this activity. Probabilities of
receiving 0.25" of rainfall are less than 20%. Subtle ridging
will build in quickly behind the boundary, but so far guidance
does not depict an anomalous ridge as we are currently
experiencing.

Wednesday could be the first hint at `relief`, though still 8-10
degrees above normal for the end of September. NBM percentiles
have a large spread, 9-12 degree differences between the 25th and
75th percentile; so most of the guidance is favoring a slight
cooldown. This seems to be due to troughing being projected set up
across the eastern CONUS. If the current forecast pans out, we
will be 10-15 degrees cooler during the day than what we have been
experiencing the entire month of September.

DNM

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Surface high pressure will remain centered just east of the
Midsouth today. Winds could reach 10KT at JBR, where a modest
pressure gradient coincides with a deep mixed layer. Otherwise,
light winds and VFR will prevail across the Midsouth through the
next 30 hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1034 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

A strong upper level ridge centered over the lower Mississippi
Valley will maintain near-record late-September heat and largely
rain-free conditions. While minimum relative humidity (RH) values
are expected to hover in the 20-30% range, light 20-foot surface
winds under 10 knots will prevent critical fire weather
conditions. However, 10-hour fuels will continue drying down
toward 10% under intense daytime heating. Fog potential remains
low across the region, restricted mainly to brief, patchy morning
fog along low-lying river basins.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-018-026>028-
     035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TNZ001>004-019>022-
     048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...PWB