824
FXUS64 KMEG 041104
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
604 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 547 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

- Mostly dry weather is expected to continue today with high
  temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees.

- An unsettled weather pattern will return Thursday and continue
  through the weekend with multiple rounds of showers and
  thunderstorms. Strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rain are
  possible.

- Temperatures will cool slightly behind a front this weekend.
  Highs will drop into the low 80s for portions of the area
  Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Water Vapor satellite trends this morning indicate a weak
upper-level low off the northern Florida Gulf Coast while a
longwave trough axis extends from the Upper Midwest to the
Central and Southern Plains. Regional WSR-88D radar trends show
showers and thunderstorms along a weak cold front that extends
from Lake Michigan back through Missouri and back into western
Arkansas and northeast Texas. A warm and humid airmass is in place
across the Mid-South early this morning with temperatures ranging
from the upper 60s to middle 70s.

Another very warm and humid day is expected across the Mid-South
today as upper-level ridging remains in place across the area. An
isolated shower or pulse-type thunderstorm is possible by late
afternoon mainly across portions of northeast Arkansas. However,
confidence in coverage remains low as better forcing will remain
upstream of the area.

Upper-level ridging will begin to weaken tonight with upper-level
flow becoming nearly zonal. Shower and thunderstorm coverage will
be slightly better on Thursday as a shortwave moves through the
Middle Mississippi Valley. Moderate instability and shear approaching
30 kts will support the potential for a few strong to severe
thunderstorms with damaging winds as the primary threat, and a
secondary threat of large hail and localized heavy rainfall.

An increased potential for strong to severe thunderstorms will be
on Friday and Saturday as upstream MCSs will transition into
MCV`s across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Moderate to strong
instability, shear in excess of 30 kts and moderately steep to
steep mid-level lapse rates will support large hail and damaging
winds as the primary threats, along with a secondary threat for
heavy rainfall. Long-term deterministic and ensemble model
solutions indicate shower and thunderstorm chances will persist
across the Mid-South through at least early next week until a
cold front finally moves through the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 547 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Latest probabilistic guidance indicates a 40 to 50 percent
probability of MVFR/IFR ceilings developing at TUP towards sunrise
Thursday. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected to prevail through
the period at all sites. South winds will increase to between 8-12
kts with a few occasional gusts to around 20 kts at JBR and MEM.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...CJC