986
FXUS64 KMEG 220416
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1116 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1114 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

- Dangerous heat and humidity will persist this week with Extreme
  Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories continuing across the Mid-
  South.

- High temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 90s through
  at least Wednesday, with afternoon heat index values ranging
  between 105 and 115.

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms will provide localized relief
  from the oppressive heat for a few areas, mainly across north
  Mississippi and near the Tennessee River.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 1114 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Temperatures as of 11 PM were still above 80 degrees across most of
the Midsouth.  Using persistence as a guide, most of us will see
sunrise temperatures in the middle to upper 70s, although it is
possible that portions of the Memphis metro may not fall below 80
degrees.  A 594 dam ridge centered over the middle and lower
Mississippi River Valley will remain the main factor influencing the
weather across the Midsouth.  Heat and humidity will remain elevated
and likely trend a bit warmer each day through midweek.  In a
stagnate weather pattern as we are in, heat tends to have a
cumulative effect. As such, morning lows will trend warmer giving
the unforgiving heat a head start on the warmup during the day. High
temperatures tomorrow and Wednesday may reach the triple digits
across portions of the area.  NBM probabilities tomorrow and
Wednesday are at or above 50% to be at of above 100 degrees across
portions of southwest Tennessee, northwest Mississippi east
Arkansas. Wednesday will most likely be our warmest day although
tomorrow and Wednesday will be dangerously hot. As such Heat
Advisories and Extreme Heat Warnings are in place and will likely
extend through Midweek. Exact delineation between these two products
will likely change each day so headline decisions will most likely
be collaborated and issued on a day-to-day basis. Heat indices
between 110 and 115 are possible this afternoon and Wednesday.

After midweek, the ridge begins to shift a bit farther east, but
temperatures will remain 4-8 degrees above normal. Expect highs in
the middle to upper 90s through at least Friday.  Heat Advisories
will likely continue.

Extended guidance doesn`t show much relief.  The center of the ridge
will likely shift along the East Coast, but 1000-500 mb
thicknesses(near 582 dam) don`t decrease much through the weekend.
The good news is, not having the ridge directly overhead should
favor a better chance of rainfall.  PoPs trend slightly higher
Friday through Sunday, but don`t expect more than about 25-35%
coverage. The most favorable location for showers will be in west
Tennessee along the Tennessee River and in northeast Mississippi.

12/Sirmon

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1114 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Persistence forecast continues under high pressure. Generally, light
WSW/SW winds as the ridge centers over the area.Diurnal Cu
development expected, but confidence in shower and thunderstorms
tomorrow afternoon is too low to mention in the TAF. The most likely
terminal for showers and thunderstorms would be KMKL, but confidence
is still too low.

DNM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1114 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Fire weather concerns will continue to be limited this week as
MinRH values hover around 50% each day. Convection will provide
very sporadic relief from the heat and humidity in the form of
isolated showers and thunderstorms.


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ009-
     018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ113-
     115.

MS...Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for
     MSZ001>005-007-008-010>012-020.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ006-009-
     013>017-021>024.

TN...Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for
     TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...DNM