995
FXUS64 KMEG 012320 AAA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
620 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 602 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

- Isolated thunderstorms will continue across north Mississippi
  through mid-evening. Thereafter, rain chances over the Mid-
  South will remain low through the end of the week.

- Noticeably lower humidity will occur on Wednesday and Thursday,
  with low temperatures dropping into the upper 60s each morning.

- Heat and humidity will creep back up on Independence Day and
  continue to build each day through the weekend. Rain chances
  will remain low (less than 15%).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Monday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Currently....A cold front extends Quebec, Canada southwest
through Cleveland, Ohio and back into northeast Mississippi. Along
and ahead of this front, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
are noted on radar over north Mississippi. Storm mode has been
predominantly single cell with wet microbursts, due to the lack of
appreciable shear aloft. The chance of strong thunderstorms over
northeast Mississippi this afternoon and evening will remain low
(<15%), as storm mode will remain largely the same.

Short term...Today through Independence Day...
The aforementioned cold front will push through the entire Mid-
South by Wednesday morning. Broad surface high pressure will
build into the region and persist through Saturday. This will
result in near normal temperatures, noticeably lower humidity,
and little to no precipitation each day. The Fourth of July
holiday will feature low to mid 90s and dry conditions across the
entire Mid-South.

Long term...Saturday through Tuesday...
A dirty 591 dam ridge will build into the region this weekend.
Temperatures will climb into the mid 90s each day, with mainly
isolated thunderstorms (<15% coverage) on Saturday and Sunday.
Several weaknesses will develop in the ridge early next week
resulting in slightly higher coverage of diurnal convection.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Isolated post-frontal TSRA over northeast MS should dissipate
after sunset.

Light winds, limited cloud cover and recent rainfall typically
raises concern for overnight fog at the smaller terminals.
However, mixing of drier air just off the surface should limit
overnight fog potential. Should fog tend to form, TUP would be
most favored, then MKL.

PWB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

No fire weather concerns. Slightly lower humidity will persist
Wednesday and Thursday behind passage of a cold front. Heat and
humidity will quickly build back in for the Fourth of July and
persist through at least early next week.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...PWB