Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
201 FXUS64 KMEG 072345 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 645 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 636 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025 - Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue into Wednesday morning. - A cold front will pass through the region tonight, bringing cooler temperatures for the remainder of the week. Highs are expected to be in the 70s from Wednesday through Friday. - Temperatures will warm back up this weekend with highs reaching into the mid 80s by Monday and Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Monday) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025 Scattered rain showers persist this afternoon across the region, mainly focused in a line along a zone of surface confluence extending south from yesterday`s surface low. Additional, isolated shower development is expected through sunset as pockets of clearing skies allow for increased instability. After sunset, a stronger intrusion of cooler air will ensue with the arrival of a cold front. CAMs show more convective showers/storms forming along the leading edge of the cold front late tonight across eastern Arkansas and southern Missouri which will travel south and east through the night. Similarly to today, storm motions will be fast enough to eliminate a higher threat of any flooding and severe parameters are low enough to keep severe weather chances low. As the front pushes south into tomorrow morning, precipitation coverage will drop considerably across the region. This is mainly due to a rapid drying of air above 925 mb and warming mid level temperatures as ridging begins to set in. Therefore, diurnal shower chances are low (< 10%) tomorrow afternoon. In addition to drier air entering the region, colder air will have also arrived with highs in the 70s in all areas outside of portions of north- central Mississippi. Windy conditions are expected behind the front as well with wind gusts of up to 25 mph tomorrow afternoon. On Thursday, all locations in the Mid-South will see highs in the 70s and dry weather. Drier, cooler weather will then stick around through Saturday as we sit on the backside of troughing over the Eastern Coastline, which will help keep tropical air over the Gulf. However, this will begin to change as troughing moves east Sunday and temperatures begin to warm. Ensembles are in good agreement that a ridge axis will then settle over the region ahead of a larger trough over the Western CONUS into next week through the end of the forecast period. Highs will reach into the low to mid 80s Sunday, increasing gradually Monday and Tuesday next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 636 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025 North/northeast winds have settled in behind a cold front and will continue through the remainder of the period. Given the tightening pressure gradient in the wake of the front, gusty northeast winds will likely materialize after sunrise Wednesday up to 20 kts. In addition, confidence is in the medium range (40-50% probabilities of CIGs < 3 kft via the HREF) for post-frontal low stratus overnight. Have added an MVFR deck for most sites but confidence is much better for Tupelo dropping to IFR or maybe even LIFR CIGs in the pre-dawn hours tonight. The trailing line of final precip with this front will also swing through the airspace overnight, but given how quickly the column is drying out, do not think any of this precip warranted mentioning in the TAFs anywhere but JBR. CAD && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1223 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025 Fire weather concerns remain low as scattered showers and storms will continue through tonight. Additional rain accumulations of up to .5" to 1" are possible in areas that see prolonged precipitation. A cold front will pass through tomorrow, drying the forecast through the remainder of the week and into next weekend. 20 ft winds will increase up to between 10 to 15 knots out of the North/Northeast tomorrow and Thursday. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB AVIATION...CAD