013
FXUS64 KMEG 230142
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
742 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 736 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Clear skies, light winds and a dry airmass are allowing
temperatures to cool off quickly this evening. Dyersburg is
already in the 30s with several locations in the low 40s.
Overnight lows should be in the low to middle 30s. The forecast
is in good shape, no significant changes needed other than hourly
temperatures.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 255 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Dry conditions continue through the weekend, with light showers
returning to the forecast Monday afternoon into the evening. High
temperatures will remain below normal tomorrow, in the mid 50s to
near 60, before warming back into the 60s Sunday and low 70s on
Monday. Should see another brief period of dry weather Tuesday,
before a more active weather pattern unfolds during the latter
half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 255 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Temperatures currently sit in the upper 40s to low 50s across the
Mid-South, with a few clouds remaining along the TN/KY state
line. We are still on track for tonight to be a bit colder than
last night, where winds aided in keeping our minimum temperatures
just above freezing. Winds are expected to calm this evening under
a clear sky for most of the area, which will likely allow
temperatures to fall into the low to mid 30s overnight. Most
guidance has much of West TN and north MS falling to near to just
below freezing by early tomorrow morning, with frost developing in
some locations. Some clouds may linger across the TN/KY state
line though, which could keep temps a few degrees warmer in those
locations. Nonetheless, another chilly overnight expected across
the Mid-South.

High pressure will continue to build through the region through
the weekend. Temperatures will remain a bit below normal tomorrow,
remaining in the mid 50s to near 60. As the surface high drifts
eastward, winds will become southerly by Saturday afternoon into
Sunday with winds becoming southerly. This will allow a warmer air
mass to move back into the region, with high temperatures climbing
back into the 60s on Sunday. Temperatures will climb even higher
on Monday, reaching the upper 60s to mid 70s, before a frontal
boundary passes through the area. This weak frontal boundary will
likely be starved of any instability, bringing mainly light
showers to the area with total rainfall amounts remaining less
than a quarter of an inch.

Upper-level zonal flow will develop by Tuesday, with conditions
temporarily drying out across the Mid-South. Models have begun to
come into better agreement with the next system in the later half
of next week, although subtle differences still exist. Exact
timing will play a role in the thunderstorm potential for this
midweek system (late Wednesday/Thursday timing right now), but
think isolated thunderstorms will likely remain confined to the
southern half of the CWA as things stand. System is expected to
quickly exit the area by Friday, paving the way for another cold
and dry weekend to end the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 535 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

There is some potential for MVFR CIGS affecting the MKL and
possibly the MEM terminal for a couple hours starting around 12z
tomorrow. Confidence remains highest at MKL, and as such has been
included in this TAF issuance cycle. Otherwise, outside of this
scenario, VFR conditions and light winds should prevail.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...JPR