050
FXUS64 KMEG 062015
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
315 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 121 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

-Significant river and areal flooding will continue into next
 week.

-Scattered showers and cooler temperatures are on tap for today.

-Cool and dry weather is expected Monday through Wednesday.

-Patchy frost is possible over the next couple of nights as lows
 drop into the 30s in some places.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 121 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

Strong southwest flow is in place across the Midsouth keeping us
cloudy. A weak disturbance moving through the mean flow has
produced a narrow line of light showers which is currently moving
across north Mississippi and West Tennessee. These showers should
move into Alabama and Middle Tennessee bringing an end to a very
wet beginning of April. Much of the Midsouth has already received
over ten inches of rain less than a week into the month. As a
result, nearly all of our river forecast points are elevated or
in flood and will likely remain elevated through the upcoming work
week or longer.

A longwave trough will shift over the Mississippi River Valley
early Monday and east of the Midsouth by early afternoon. As the
axis shifts east of the area and high pressure builds in from the
west, cooler and dry conditions will return to the Midsouth. We
may even be cool enough for patchy frost Tuesday and Wednesday
mornings. Expect morning lows in the low 30s to low 40s and highs
only in the 50s Tuesday for most of the Midsouth.

Warmer temperatures return to the Midsouth after midweek. Expect
highs in the middle 60s to middle 70s.

A ridge will slowly build along the west coast and Intermountain
West midweek resulting in northwest flow across the middle and
lower Mississippi River Valley. Return flow will begin west of the
Mississippi River Wednesday afternoon and we could see a few
showers across the region by Thursday. At this time precipitation
totals do not look significant and the threat of severe storms
appears minimal. Friday and Saturday should be mild and dry.

30/Sirmon

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

Rain chances will continue to diminish through midday at all
terminals. IFR CIGs will persist through the majority of the
period with MVFR conditions returning overnight. A brief period of
gusty winds may materialize this evening as a reinforcing front
swings across the Mid-South.

ANS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...ANS