Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
395 FXUS64 KMEG 041131 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 631 AM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 631 AM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025 - Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected again this afternoon, though widespread rain is not expected. - Hot and humid conditions will peak on Friday, with high temperatures climbing into the mid-to-upper 90s. - A cold front will bring a higher chance for showers and thunderstorms late Friday into Saturday, leading to drier and more pleasant weather on Sunday and into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 1128 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025 A weak stationary front is draped across northwest Tennessee into northern Arkansans. This ill-defined feature will remain in place through Friday as Northwest flow across the eastern two thirds of the CONUS deamplifies. Isolated to scattered diurnally enhanced thunderstorms will remain possible, especially near the front, but most of the Midsouth will remain dry. Temperatures will trend warmer, with highs in the middle to upper 90s Friday afternoon. Luckily, return flow over the next 24 to 48 hours will be fairly weak, so moisture levels will not be as high as they could be for early September. As a result, Heat Indices will remain below 100 and certainly below Heat Advisory criteria(105 degrees). Late Friday a cold front associated with a deep surface low tracking across the Great Lakes will approach the Midsouth. This feature will likely result in our best chance of significant rainfall we have seen in over a week, and probably won`t see again for the next 7 days or longer. The latest NBM guidance has sped up the arrival of the front and associated rain. This may give northern portions of the Midsouth a bit earlier relief from Friday afternoons heat. Probabilistic guidance shows about a 30-40% chance of greater than one half of an inch of rain across east Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel and much of west Tennessee, tapering off to only about 10% south of a line from Tupelo, Mississippi to Clarksdale, Mississippi. Instability will be high, but dynamic support for strong of severe storms looks very weak. Much of the rainfall should exit the Midsouth by mid-afternoon Saturday as the seasonably strong front pushes south toward the Gulf Coast. Drier and cooler conditions are expected over the weekend into next week as a broad trough shifts slowly across the Eastern US. Saturday into Sunday night looks like the coolest period over the next 7 days featuring highs in the 70s to low 80s and lows in the low 50s to low 60s. Temperatures will trend warmer Sunday into early next week, but should remain below 90 degrees until Wednesday. Strong, broad surface high pressure will shift from over the Ohio Valley to along the East Coast Sunday through midweek keeping the Midsouth rain free for the upcoming work week. 30/Sirmon && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 631 AM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025 VFR expected at all terminals throughout the TAF period. A front currently sits to the north of the region and is expected to slowly drop south through the day. By around 00z, winds will become variable at MEM/MKL/JBR as the front stalls overnight, becoming southerly between 06z-12z as the boundary retreats back north. CAMs do try to develop a few showers this afternoon, but coverage is too marginal/uncertain to mention in any of the TAFs within this issuance. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1128 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025 Relative humidity values will remain in the 40 to 60 percent range through Friday. Only isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast through this time period. A cold front will move through the region Friday afternoon into Saturday resulting in a higher chance (40-60%) of widespread wetting rainfall. A drier and cooler airmass will move back into the region on Sunday behind the front dropping relative humidity back into the upper 20s to 30s percent range early next week. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS AVIATION...JAB