465
FXUS64 KMEG 030455 CCA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1155 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1126 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

- Pleasant weather will continue through early this week. High
  temperatures will be in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees.

- Temperatures will begin to climb during the latter half of the
  week. Most triple digit heat indices will be confined to the
  Mississippi and Arkansas delta counties.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 1126 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Early morning surface analysis places a quasi-stationary boundary
along the northern Gulf Coast with an inverted surface trough
located across Alabama and portions of east Tennessee. Meanwhile,
a 1024 mb surface high is centered over southern Lake Michigan.
This is resulting in clear skies and pleasant temperatures in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

The aforementioned inverted surface trough is expected to
retrograde slightly into Sunday night. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms may develop across portions of extreme northeast
Mississippi and along the Tennessee River. However, confidence in
coverage remains low (20 percent at best) for late afternoon/early
Sunday evening. Any convective activity is expected to diminish
with the loss of daytime instability.

Short-term model trends indicate a slight increase in convective
chances (20-30 percent) for Monday through Wednesday as a mid-
level shortwave trough drops from the Northern/Central Plains and
into the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Long-range ensemble runs continue to indicate a building ridge
across the region for the latter half of the week. This will
result in a return of decreased rain chances along with
temperatures returning to the lower to perhaps middle 90s towards
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1126 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Light north winds overnight will increase to ~8 kts on Sunday. A
diurnal Cu field around 4-5 kft AGL will develop by late morning
with isolated TSRA possible east of an MKL-TUP line late
afternoon through the evening. There is still nearly a 20% chance
of MVFR ceilings at TUP after sunrise Sunday but confidence
remains too low to mention in the TAF at this time. MVFR potential
is notably higher (40-60%) early Monday morning for all
terminals. The TUP observations have been devoid of weather data
since this afternoon, so AMD NOT SKED was appended to the TAF.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1126 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

No fire weather concerns expected as daily minimum relative
humidity values will average around 50 percent with light winds.
Highs this week will be in the 80s to lower 90s. The greatest
chance for wetting rains will be near the Tennessee River and
northeast Mississippi. However, average rainfall amounts are
expected to remain less than one-quarter inch.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...MJ