110
FXUS64 KMEG 181720
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1220 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1220 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

- An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for areas along and west
  of the Mississippi River through Tuesday evening for heat index
  values above 110 degrees.

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for the eastern half of the Mid-
  South through Tuesday evening for heat index values above 105
  degrees.

- Temperatures will trend cooler through the end of the week. By
  Friday, highs will be in the upper 80s and mid 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Sunday)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

A 594 dam upper level ridge is situated from the Southern Plains
into the MS River Valley this morning. Hot and humid conditions
continue across the Mid-South. The persistent ridge has allowed
the heat to build slightly each day. A Cu field has developed
across parts of the Delta and a few showers and thunderstorms are
possible this afternoon though coverage will remain sparse. The
latest HREF has very little development this afternoon as
subsidence is fairly strong. Similar conditions are expected on
Tuesday as the upper ridge remains in place. The Extreme Heat
Warning has been extended through Tuesday evening for area along
and west of the MS River with a Heat Advisory across the remainder
of the area.

By the middle and end of the week the upper ridge will retrograde
west as a mid level trough moves south through the Mississippi
River Valley along with a weak cold front. These features will
increase POPs across the Mid-South (30-50%) Wednesday and Thursday.
Severe chances look minimal with limited shear for storms to work
with. Drier and slightly cooler will gradually filter in through
this weekend though shower and thunderstorm chances will linger
across NE Mississippi. A trough moving through the Great Lakes
will send a reinforcing front through this weekend which will
likely knock highs into the 80s and lows into the 60s over parts
of the area Sunday and all of the area early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

VFR conditions continue under high pressure. Winds will continue
be generally light and variable through 12. Fog conditions are
expected to develop at MKL and TUP under calm winds and clear
skies. A slow moving frontal boundary will approach the terminals
tomorrow resulting in a wind shift back to prevail from the south
and increasing shower and thunderstorm chances.

DNM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

No fire weather concerns expected through the midweek. Hot and
humid conditions will prevail with light winds. Wetting rain
chances will increase on Wednesday and Thursday as an upper
level disturbance moves through.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ009-018-
     026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ001-007-008-
     010>012-020.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ002>006-009-013>017-
     021>024.

TN...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TNZ001-002-019-
     048-049-088.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TNZ003-004-020>022-
     050>055-089>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...DNM