506
FXUS64 KMEG 310543
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1143 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 903 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025

A potent upper level low is pushing toward the Mid-South tonight.
An axis of widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms cover
much of north MS and West TN with precip starting to taper off
west of the MS River. This axis will shift east overnight and exit
the region by mid-morning. The heaviest rain overnight into the
early morning is expected across north MS where an inch is
expected with locally higher amounts. Fortunately, the axis of
heavier precip is moving out of the area that had 3-4 inches of
rain earlier today and into an area that has not seen a lot of
rain so far. As a result, the flooding threat will diminish.

The flooding threat is winding down north of I-40 with the Flood
Watch scheduled to expire at midnight. The severe threat
continues to look very marginal. There is plenty of shear but
surface based instability is non-existent. The main threat is
gusty winds but those should stay sub-severe.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 230 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025

Heavy rain will continue to impact the Mid-South through Friday
morning, resulting in flooding concerns north of I-40. A brief
severe weather threat may materialize this evening, but overall
confidence is low. As for the rest of the forecast: expect above
average temperatures with rain chances returning by the middle of
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 230 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025

Training showers continue to impact areas north of I-40 this
afternoon. Rainfall estimates as of 230 PM remain between 2 and 4
inches with several areas reporting road closures as local rivers
and streams rise above bankfull. The latest guidance suggests
continual rainfall in this area through midnight. Additional
flooding is likely until cessation of heavy rains.

In addition, a low confidence severe weather threat may
materialize this evening in areas of north Mississippi. Increased
confidence is hindered by a lack of cloud breakage, limiting
available instability. However, the 18Z HRRR continues to develop
a line of storms as the front swings through the area tonight.
Overall, the severe weather window will last for a few hours, from
5-8pm. The greatest threat will be damaging winds.

A pleasant pattern will emerge this weekend as zonal flow aloft
dominates. Expect warming temperatures on Sunday, leading to above
average temperatures next week. Guidance continues to struggle
with a frontal passage, or two, next week. However, a few things
are clear: 1 - above average temperatures will persist, 2 - rain
chances increase by midweek.

ANS

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025

Tonight`s showers and thunderstorms have moved out of MEM/JBR and
will continue over MKL/TUP over the next several hours. Fog with
reduced vsbys has begun to develop across the airspace, behind
tonight`s rainfall. Intermittent IFR and MVFR cigs will continue
through around daybreak, when conditions lift to VFR.
South/southwest winds will remain gusty, up to 20 kts, for the
next several hours, before gusts briefly drop out. West/southwest
winds will gust up to 20 kts once again mid morning behind
tonight`s upper low, dropping out around sunset.

AEH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...AEH