495
FXUS64 KMEG 092311
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
611 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 611 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

- Warm and humid summer days will continue across the Mid-South
  with highs in the low to mid 90s over the next seven days.

- Heat Advisories across portions of the Mid-South are anticipated
  each day through at least mid-week as heat indices 105 to 109
  are expected.

- With a typical summertime pattern persisting, isolated shower
  and thunderstorm chances will exist each afternoon this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Another "cooler" day is on display across the Mid-South with
current temperatures in the 80s areawide with a little bit of
agitated cu slowly building in. The latest KNQA radar sweep
indicates mostly dry conditions across the Mid-South with a few
very light showers developing over north Mississippi. Dry
conditions are not expected to last very long as a moist airmass
and increased PWATs in the 1.9-2.1" range remain over areas mainly
south of I- 40. As we move into the afternoon hours, when peak
heating occurs, mainly diurnally driven isolated to scattered
shower and thunderstorm development is expected primarily in these
areas. Today`s parameter space looks much like yesterday`s with
PWATs around the 90th percentile for this time of the year and
enough instability for weak updrafts capable of producing gusty
winds and potentially becoming efficient rainfall producers. As a
shortwave, currently fixated over our area, translates east
through the day, shower and thunderstorm chances will begin to
taper off shortly after sunset. As far as temperatures go today,
highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with dewpoints in the
mid 70s, just shy of heat advisory criteria thanks to increased
cloud cover moving into the afternoon.

Tomorrow, however, will be a different story as we clear out
overnight resulting in a warm and humid day tomorrow as ridging
to our west, currently centered over the four corners region, and
ridging over the southeastern CONUS both begin to broaden. These
areas of high pressure will shift us, here in the Mid-South, into
quasi-zonal flow aloft. As this slight upper-level transition
occurs, we will begin to rapidly warm with dewpoints remaining in
the mid 70s. Heat indices will begin to soar to 105+F in areas
along and west of the Mississippi River warranting the issuance
of a Heat Advisory beginning at 11AM tomorrow. We will remain in
this pattern through mid-week as temperatures continue to warm
into the mid to potentially upper 90s by Wednesday. Continued
Heat Advisories and potential expansions are anticipated each day
as ridging continues to broaden. In this typical summertime
pattern, weak mid and upper-level embedded perturbations will
allow for isolated shower and thunderstorm chances, peaking in
the afternoon, each day.

Moving into the latter half of the week, latest guidance has us
trending warmer than past runs as ensembles are now keeping dual
upper-level troughs further north, remaining over Canada. Aloft,
a transition to a northwest flow regime is still expected here
over Mid-South; however, if troughing remains north, highs in the
upper 90s even pushing into the weekend are not out of the
question. As such Heat Advisories have the potential to be
warranted every day this week and maybe even extending into next
week if upper-level ridging is able to hold strong and keep
troughing further north. The latest LREF guidance is in agreement
with this solution with around a 30% chance of heat indices 105+F
Friday and into next weekend. Something to keep in mind as we
head into mid August. As we transition into more of a northwest
flow regime, embedded shortwaves will likely give enough lift for
isolated showers and thunderstorm chances, especially in the
hours, into late week.

AEH

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Predominantly VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with
S/SW winds. There is a low chance for some patchy fog overnight
at TUP, but not enough confidence to include. Additionally, some
guidance does bring -SHRA by tomorrow afternoon across northeast
MS, but probabilities are below 30% and thus opted to not include
at TUP with this forecast cycle.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Fire weather concerns will remain at a minimum for the
foreseeable future as we remain in a typical summertime pattern.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will remain in the forecast
this afternoon, with isolated coverage through at least mid-week.
As a result, minimum relative humidity values will remain above
40% with generally light 20 ft winds through the fire weather
period.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for ARZ009-018-
     026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for MSZ001-007-008-
     010>012-020.

TN...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for TNZ001>003-019-
     020-048>051-088-089.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...CMA