662
FXUS64 KMEG 190500
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1200 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1159 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

- Heat products are in effect for the entire Mid-South through
  Tuesday evening for heat index values between 105 and 112
  degrees.

- Shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase Tuesday afternoon
  and evening as a cold front moves slowly into the region. There
  is a low chance of a couple of strong thunderstorms possessing
  gusty winds.

- Temperatures will trend cooler behind the front through the end
  of the week. By Friday, highs will be in the upper 80s and mid
  90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 1108 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Another unreasonably warm and muggy night across the Mid-South.
Temperatures range from the upper 70s to mid 80s across the region
with little to no wind. Heat indices still remain in the upper
80s across a large majority of the Mid-South near the midnight
hour.

The latest GOES East Water Vapor Imagery depicts large and Major
Hurricane Erin off the east coast of the Bahamas with an MCS
traversing the Chicagoland area. An upper level ridge remains over
the southeastern United States with another ridge of high pressure
over the Four Corners Region.

Hurricane Erin will significantly affect upper level flow over the
majority of the United States over the next 72 hours or so. The
upper ridge out west will build north and amplify northerly flow
into the entire Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. This will help
drive the remnants of the aforementioned MCS into the Mid-South
during the late afternoon and evening hours. NBM guidance is not
handling this quick upper pattern shift very well wrt to PoPs.
Had to bump up PoP coverage from 10-20 percent up into the 30-50
range. The 00Z HREF shows quite a bit of coverage across the Mid-
South with pockets of moderate to high instability. The heat
products appear to still be in pretty good shape as heat indices
climb into the 106 to 112F range by early to mid afternoon.

The latest HRRR run shows convective activity beginning in the
late afternoon hours and persisting into the early morning hours
on Wednesday as the front moves into the region. There is a low
chance (<20%) of a strong storm or two with gusty winds as the
main threat. The main impact from the front will be some much
needed rainfall for portions of the Mid-South, however activity
will remain scattered and QPF totals will struggle to break 1
inch. Nonetheless, slightly cooler and drier air will filter into
the region through late week.

Hurricane Erin will finally depart the East Coast this upcoming
weekend. This will allow northwest flow to overspread the Lower
Mississippi Valley and push a reinforcing front through the Mid-
South late in the weekend. This will be our first reckoning with
"False Fall." Nonetheless, it will be welcomed with big hugs and
loud cheers as morning lows dip into the middle 60s and highs stay
in the mid 80s.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1159 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Light and variable winds will exist over the next 30 hours as a
weak frontal boundary meanders across the airspace. Winds will
veer north by midday. Greater convective chances exist Tuesday
afternoon, necessitating TS mention at all sites through sunset.
Otherwise, expect VFR CIGs through the period.

ANS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Fire weather concerns will remain low through midweek. Hot and
humid conditions will prevail with light winds. Wetting rain
chances will increase on Wednesday and Thursday as an upper level
disturbance moves through.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ009-018-
     026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ001-007-008-
     010>012-020.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ002>006-009-013>017-
     021>024.

TN...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TNZ001-002-019-
     048-049-088.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TNZ003-004-020>022-
     050>055-089>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...ANS