307
FXUS64 KMEG 011147
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
647 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 630 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

- Dangerous heat and humidity will continue across the Mid-South,
  with daily heat headlines anticipated through the end of the
  week.

- A potential pattern change is on the horizon for Sunday offering
  the possibility of relief from the heat by early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 946 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Hot and humid conditions will plague the Mid-South through the
end of the week as a 595 dam ridge meanders over the Southeast. A
Heat Advisory will go into effect at 12PM on Tuesday for portions
of the Mid-South. Additional heat headlines will be needed as we
move towards the end of the week. Maximum heat index values may
reach 110 degrees in a few areas, but the probability of this
occurring is about 20 percent. Should an Extreme Heat Warning be
needed, it will likely be for areas within the Mississippi Delta.
Otherwise, expect air temperatures to be well above normal as
daily highs reach the upper 90s to low 100s.

Models are beginning to pick up on a weak upper level disturbance
developing along the Gulf Coast by the end of the week. This
disturbance will bring a slight chance of precipitation Thursday
into the weekend, though rainfall totals will be negligible.
Instead, the majority of the region will remain dry which will
further exacerbate current drought conditions. The one silver
lining to this forecast will be the arrival of a backdoor
cold front on Sunday. Temperatures will not change much with this
boundary, but lower dewpoints should negate the need for heat
headlines by Monday.

Both the GFS and ECMWF vary in regards to how the synoptic
pattern evolves next week. The GFS depicts a shortwave diving
across the Midwest, keeping the Mid-South within northwest flow
aloft. On the other hand, the ECMWF is hanging onto the
aforementioned ridge into the middle of next week. Regardless of
which scenario manifests, there remains no sign of the Fall
season just yet.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Surface high pressure dominates the Mid-South, maintaining VFR
conditions and light winds at all terminals through the period.
While isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon across west Tennessee and northeast Mississippi,
confidence in coverage remains too low for TAF inclusion.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 946 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Upper level ridging will dominate weather patterns through the
end of the week with no appreciable rainfall forecast. As a
result, minimum 10-hour dead fuel moisture content will hover
around 10 percent. Fortunately, light 20-foot winds and minimum
relative humidity values above 30 percent should keep fire
weather concerns at bay. Fog potential will remain minimal,
restricted mainly to localized river valleys.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     MSZ001-007-008-010>012-020.

TN...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     TNZ001>004-019-020-048>051-088-089.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...JDS