680
FXUS64 KMEG 311146
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
646 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 646 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

- Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms are
  expected through Monday. While many areas will see little to no
  rainfall, the stronger storms will pose a threat of localized
  flash flooding, especially in the afternoon and evening hours.

- A Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) of a few strong to severe
  storms exists on Monday for damaging wind gusts.

- A cold front will deliver drier weather and near-normal
  temperatures, with highs in the low to mid-80s next Tuesday and
  Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 646 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Dense fog continues to spread west early this morning and has
finally crossed the Mississippi River. A Dense Fog Advisory was
hoisted for areas from the AL border all the way into eastern AR,
including the metro Memphis area. Visibility will gradually
improve this morning with generally dry weather through midday.
Isolated diurnal convection is anticipated today, with coverage
likely lower than that of yesterday. PoPs were adjusted today to
account for the latest CAM trends, including keeping the Memphis
area dry and highlighting the potential for evening convection.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Showers are expected to continue diminishing in coverage through
tonight as instability wanes. High low-level humidity and weak
surface winds do hint at fog potential through Sunday morning,
but high clouds are expected to keep any fog isolated. Therefore,
some areas of patchy fog are possible tonight, especially across
northern Mississippi where current HREF guidance has pockets of
30% - 40% probabilities of visibility below 1/2 mile. There is
the potential for a few showers and thunderstorms, currently in
south-central Missouri, to persist long enough to arrive in the
western half of the region through tonight. However, confidence
is low in this scenario as CAMs struggle to keep storms alive
past 03z - 06z, which in combination with current radar and
satellite trends, suggests storms will struggle in the coming
hours.

The surface air mass is expected to continue being muggy with
afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s as a ridge axis remains
parked over the Mississippi River Valley through this weekend.
More afternoon convection is forecast tomorrow, similar to today,
as MLCAPE values climb above 2000 J/kg in a weakly forced
environment. Expect heavy downpours and gusty winds with stronger
cells and a decrease in shower and thunderstorm coverage after
sunset.

Fortunately, the upper pattern will become dislodged into Monday
as an upper low over the Northeast begins to move south. Upper
height falls will overspread the hot, humid air mass that has
pervaded the region for the past two weeks through the day
Monday. With this synoptic support, thunderstorms are once again
forecast Monday afternoon and will likely be more widespread than
the past few days. Additionally, better upper level dynamics and
strong instability will let storms attain better organization,
possibly growing into an MCS through the late afternoon and
evening. At the minimum, forecast soundings show enough (25 -
30 knots) bulk shear will exist within 2000+ MLCAPE, suggesting
the potential for some severe weather. As such, SPC has placed
most of the region in a Marginal (level 1/5) Risk for severe
weather for damaging wind gusts. Alongside the severe threat will
be a limited flash flooding threat with PWATs between 1.75" -
2.00". There is the potential for early morning thunderstorms
that would change the timing of the peak severe threat, but model
guidance is still highly varied and is not yet within the CAM
window to get a consensus from the HREF and REFS. So, expect
changes to Monday`s forecast in the next couple days as the HiRes
window arrives.

On Tuesday the upper low will amplify and continue to swing
south. A surface high will form over the Northeast and Great
Lakes, pushing a cold front into the region. Temperatures will
only marginally cool with highs falling into the low 80s and
upper 70s. Luckily, dewpoints will drop towards 60 F, making
afternoon weather both Tuesday and Wednesday much more bearable.
A gradual warm up will then take over through the end of next
week as southerly flow returns after the surface high slides
southeast over the Atlantic coast. Thanks to ridging behind the
upper low, the forecast also remains dry Tuesday through the end
of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Widespread LIFR low clouds and fog are affecting an area from TUP
to MEM this morning with visibility reduced to 1/4 mile in some
areas. These conditions will persist through ~13-14Z and will
gradually improve through the morning. Generally VFR conditions
are anticipated this afternoon with only isolated diurnal
convection through 00z. Confidence is too low to even include
PROB30 groups during the daytime period. There is still
considerable uncertainty regarding the potential for convection
to move into the area from the northwest this evening. While some
CAMs (and the NBM) highlight this potential, the flagship HRRR
and RRFS models are much less impressive. The PROB30 group for
JBR was retained, but no TSRA was included elsewhere at this
time. Otherwise, winds will remain light through the period with
another round of fog and low clouds anticipated again tonight.
This is most likely to affect MKL/TUP.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

No fire weather concerns are expected through at least early next
week. An unsettled and wet pattern is anticipated to persist
across the Mid-South through Monday, with scattered showers and
thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.

A drier pattern will emerge Tuesday and Wednesday as a cold front
moves through the region, but rain chances return by the weekend.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ARZ028-035-
     036-048.

MO...None.
MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MSZ001>006-
     009-014-016-017-024.

TN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for TNZ048>050-
     088>092.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...MJ