617
FXUS64 KMEG 221738
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1238 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1238 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

- Significant river flooding will continue across portions of the
  Mid-South through this week.

- Unsettled weather will continue throughout the week with
  multiple rounds of storms possible, especially later this week.

- Temperatures should remain above normal for much of the week
  with highs in the 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Skies are cloudy across much of northeast Mississippi with mostly
clear skies over the remainder of the Mid-South. Temperatures
early this morning are in the lower 50s to mid 60s. Scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms are moving across portions of
northeast Mississippi. Some patchy areas of fog have developed
mainly over portions of west Tennessee. A cold front extends from
middle Tennessee through north Mississippi and into northern
Louisiana.

The cold front will lift north some today toward the
Tennessee/Mississippi border before stalling out by this evening.
As a result, more scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
mainly over north Mississippi today. Temperatures will remain on
the warm side with highs from the upper 70s to lower 80s. The
front will remain over north Mississippi and start to weaken
tonight with showers and thunderstorms diminishing during the
evening hours. Temperatures will remain on the warm side with lows
Wednesday morning in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

While the cold front is expected to fall apart on Wednesday, an
upper level disturbance will move across the region bringing a
chance of thunderstorms to the southern half of the Mid-South.
Temperatures will remain warm on Wednesday with highs in the lower
80s.

A warm front is expected to develop just north of the region which
will provide a focus for some shower and thunderstorms to move
across the Mid-South on Thursday and Thursday night. This boundary
will hang around the region for Friday and Saturday producing
additional showers and thunderstorms both days.

The frontal boundary will be south of the region on Sunday with
only some isolated afternoon thunderstorms possible. A warm front
will lift north of the Mid-South on Monday with a few afternoon
thunderstorms possible over extreme northern sections of the
region. Warmer temperatures are expected on Monday with highs in
the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Predominantly VFR forecast with the potential for TS at TUP and
morning fog at MKL. The region, with the exception of northeast
MS, is currently VFR with SCT/BKN afternoon cumulus clouds around
3500 ft. These clouds will continue to mix to higher altitudes
until sunset where they will dissipate with calming winds. Some
fog is possible at MKL during the early morning hours, but
forecast confidence is somewhat low given moisture loss from
mixing this afternoon.

A few thunderstorms are currently ongoing across northeast MS.
This activity is expected to continue through the afternoon with
some potential impacts to TUP. MVFR CIGs appear to be eroding
underneath an anvil shield as dry air entrains from the north, but
the eastern extent of MVFR/IFR CIGs does lend to the possibility
of further drops into MVFR through this evening. Therefore, have
prevailed MVFR at TUP through the afternoon. CIGs will return
overnight, dropping into IFR until 15z tomorrow where they will
rise into VFR through the end of the period.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ARS
AVIATION...JAB