084
FXUS64 KMEG 201117
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
617 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 616 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

- Dangerous heat and humidity will persist across the Mid-South
  this week. Heat indices will range between 105 and 115 this
  afternoon across eastern Arkansas, southeast Missouri, and
  portions of West Tennessee and north Mississippi, peaking around
  midweek.

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms will provide localized relief
  from the oppressive heat for a few areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 1120 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Another hot and humid night is underway with current temperatures
in the upper 70s to mid 80s. A persistence forecast is expected
for Sunday with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
across northeast Mississippi and into the Tennessee River Valley.
Coverage will keep this area cooler once again today.
Unfortunately elsewhere, heat and humidity continue to swell
across the area. Temperatures will run about the same as yesterday
if not a degree or two warmer. Portions of the Heat Advisory were
upgraded to an Extreme Heat Warning. Northeast Arkansas, the
Missouri Bootheel, and northwest Tennessee reporting stations did
hit 110F apparent temperatures today (which is warning criteria),
and are likely to do the same thing today. These aforementioned
areas are susceptible to suffering heat stress as the heat is here
to stay, and worsen, over the next several days.

To start off the work week, an intense upper level ridge will build
over the region. High temperatures will continue to trend one to two
degrees warmer each day with dew points remaining in the mid 70s.
Tuesday and Wednesday are going to be brutally hot with heat indices
likely to surpass 110F. The ridge is capable of dipping dew points
down to the lower 70s, which would keep heat indices in the 105-
109F range. Nonetheless, with these temperatures, it is going to be
hot with very little relief on the horizon. At the very least, heat
advisories are going to be needed daily with perhaps upgrades to
warnings. Most guidance suggests that we will not break out of this
oppressive pattern until the end of next week, but that is even
uncertain at this point. As for our precipitation chances next week,
won`t rule out some isolated thunderstorms in the afternoons, but do
think coverage will remain over the far eastern portions of the
area. Thunderstorms could bring brief respite to the heat, but
confidence is low on any relief this week. Check back daily to see
the latest heat headlines. Stay cool and hydrated!

DNM

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

There is a brief window this morning where TUP could experience
MVFR ceilings as diurnal heating commences. Otherwise, VFR will
prevail outside of diurnal convection. TSRA coverage looks to be
limited today and barely warrants a PROB30 mention at TUP.
Otherwise, no mention is included at remaining terminals. Expect
occasional wind gusts at or just over 15 kts at MEM/JBR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1120 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

No major fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future. Daily,
isolated to scattered thunderstorm chances will continue, with
minRH values remaining above 40%.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ035-036-048-049-058.

MO...None.
MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ001>005-007-008-010>012-020.

TN...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for TNZ049-053>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...MJ