359
FXUS64 KMEG 170351
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1051 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

- Hazardous heat will persist through the weekend, with little
  rainfall expected over the next seven days.

- An areawide Heat Advisory is in effect through 8 PM Saturday.

- A frontal boundary will bring increased rain chances to the
  Mid-South early next week. Above normal temperatures are likely
  to continue into next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

A 600 dam upper ridge is centered over the Mid-South tonight.
This feature will dominate the region`s weather through this
weekend while slowly retrograding westward. Near record to record
highs are expected each day with temperatures reaching into the
upper 90s to low 100s degrees. Triple-digit afternoon heat index
values will be common, and the Heat Advisory is in effect through
8 pm Saturday. Don`t let your guard down on the heat. Check the
back seat, stay in the AC, and stay hydrated.

A mid-level trough will move into the Middle Mississippi Valley
and Southern Plains on Monday with a weak cold front moving into
the region. Meanwhile, an upper low in the NE Gulf will result in
increasing moisture over the Southeast U.S. As a result of these
two features, rain chances will increase early next week.
However, QPF amounts look fairly paltry for now, at less than a
half inch through next Wednesday.

Starting to see some divergence in the models by the middle to
end of next week, with a large spread in NBM temperature
guidance. Some guidance is showing more troughing over the
eastern CONUS and possibly cooler temps for the Mid-South.
However, the majority of the guidance still favors at least some
upper ridging continuing across the Mid-South along with above
normal temperatures well into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Persistent VFR conditions as strong high pressure remains over
the region. The area of high pressure will retrograde over the
airspace throughout the day hinting at light and variable winds
persisting for the remainder of the period.

DNM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Fuels will continue to dry amidst near record heat each day.
Relative humidity values will range from 30 to 40 percent each
afternoon with moderate to high recovery each night. Widespread
fire weather concerns will remain low to moderate over the next
week or so as 20 foot winds remain less than 10 mph. No fog
concerns for the foreseeable future.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-
     036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for TNZ001>004-019>022-
     048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...DNM