948
FXUS64 KMEG 160444
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1144 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1119 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

- Isolated afternoon showers and storms will continue into
  midweek.

- Temperatures will return to the upper 80s and lower 90s by the
  end of the week.

- Drought conditions are expected to persist or worsen due to a
  lack of appreciable rainfall and prolonged heat. This also
  raises wildland fire concerns through midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 1119 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

00Z upper-air analysis depicts a Rex Block over the Continental
United States with a high centered over the Great Lakes Region, an
upper-level low over the Southeast United States, and an upper-
level trough over the northern Rockies. Convection has
substantially decreased over the past couple of hours.
Temperatures as of 10 PM are in the 70s at most locations.

Latest 00Z HREF, CAMs, and deterministic models excluding the GFS
indicate the potential for additional isolated showers and
thunderstorms during peak heating on Tuesday. Consequently, pops
were added to a dry NBM forecast in coordination with surrounding
offices. Kept pops at 15 percent due to low confidence in coverage
with a weakly sheared pulse-type convective environment. Hot
temperatures will continue into Wednesday with afternoon highs in
the lower to middle 90s.

Long range ensemble models indicate the blocking pattern will
eventually weaken late this week, allowing for a slight and gradual
increase in showers and thunderstorms into next weekend to around
30 percent coverage, mainly during the afternoon and early
evening hours in a continued weakly sheared environment.
Temperatures during this period will be not as hot with afternoon
highs mainly in the middle 80s to around 90 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1119 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

Convective coverage for Tuesday afternoon looks a little more
sparse than the previous afternoon. Forecast is only carrying 15%
PoPs so opted not to add precip mention in the TAF during
afternoon peak heating for now. Winds will be bona fide light and
variable due to a surface high meandering about the southeast
CONUS. By the end of the extended MEM TAF, looks like winds will
settle into a southerly pattern Tuesday night. VFR conditions
continue to prevail.

CAD

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1119 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

Minimum relative humidity values will average between 40-50
percent Tuesday and between 30-40 percent on Wednesday. Wetting
rain chances will increase slightly late this week into the
upcoming weekend as an upper-level ridge weakens across the
region.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...CAD