581
FXUS64 KMEG 260420
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1120 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1120 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

- A Heat Advisory will go into effect at 10AM for the entire Mid-
  South through this evening for heat indices up to 106.

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms will provide localized relief
  from the heat for areas mainly across northeast Mississippi and
  near the Tennessee River.

- Oppressive heat returns next week, but a pattern change should
  bring normal temperatures back to the forecast by next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 1120 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Heat indices today will be a degree or two cooler than Friday as
a large upper level ridge centers over South Carolina. Areas in
west TN and north MS may not reach Heat Advisory criteria.
However, given the prolonged nature of this heat wave and the
future necessity of heat products, opted to expand the Heat
Advisory areawide through 9PM. In addition to heat, isolated
showers and thunderstorms are anticipated this afternoon and will
diminish around sunset.

Unfortunately, Extreme Heat is on the horizon. Both the GFS and
ECMWF depict the aforementioned ridge beginning to retrograde on
Sunday. By Monday, the ridge will center over Mississippi and
amplify to 598 dam. Oppressive heat will continue through midweek,
with additional Extreme Heat Warnings anticipated. Tuesday will be
the most oppressive day with heat indices topping out at 115
degrees.

Good news is on the horizon: models continue to depict an area of
low pressure forming near the East Coast on Tuesday. This system
will follow the outer periphery of the parent ridge, deepening
slightly as it skirts across the Florida Panhandle. This piece of
energy will be just enough to effectively push the ridge further
west over the Four Corners Region by Thursday. At the same time, a
cold front will be moving south across the Great Lakes Region.
The Mid-South lies in a prime position for a proper cold frontal
passage in the Thursday/Friday timeframe. Temperatures on the
back end of the front will be near-normal, ending the last two
weeks of oppressive heat.

ANS

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1120 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

MVFR cigs may sneak into TUP for a couple of hours in the morning
otrw VFR conds expected. Hi-res guidance points to TUP having the
best chance of a SHRA or TSRA Saturday afternoon so continued the
PROB30 there. No mention of precip in the remainder of the TAFs
since confidence is too low. Winds will be light S/SE tonight
becoming SSW on Saturday with ocnl gusts to around 20 kts at MEM
and JBR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1120 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

No major fire weather concerns this period as MinRH values remain
above 50% and 20ft winds hover around 5 mph. Wetting rain chances
increase for the latter half of the upcoming work week.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ009-018-
     026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ001-007-008-
     010>012-020.

TN...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Saturday for TNZ001>003-019-
     020-048>051-088-089.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...SJM