483
FXUS64 KMEG 221131 AAA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
631 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 630 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025

- Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories continue across the Midsouth.
  High temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 90s into early
  next week, with peak heat indices ranging from 105 to 115.

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms over northeast Mississippi
  and near the Tennessee River the next several days. Otherwise,
  the chances for measurable rainfall remain low across the
  Midsouth.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 1114 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Temperatures as of 11 PM were still above 80 degrees across most of
the Midsouth.  Using persistence as a guide, most of us will see
sunrise temperatures in the middle to upper 70s, although it is
possible that portions of the Memphis metro may not fall below 80
degrees.  A 594 dam ridge centered over the middle and lower
Mississippi River Valley will remain the main factor influencing the
weather across the Midsouth.  Heat and humidity will remain elevated
and likely trend a bit warmer each day through midweek.  In a
stagnate weather pattern as we are in, heat tends to have a
cumulative effect. As such, morning lows will trend warmer giving
the unforgiving heat a head start on the warmup during the day. High
temperatures tomorrow and Wednesday may reach the triple digits
across portions of the area.  NBM probabilities tomorrow and
Wednesday are at or above 50% to be at of above 100 degrees across
portions of southwest Tennessee, northwest Mississippi east
Arkansas. Wednesday will most likely be our warmest day although
tomorrow and Wednesday will be dangerously hot. As such Heat
Advisories and Extreme Heat Warnings are in place and will likely
extend through Midweek. Exact delineation between these two products
will likely change each day so headline decisions will most likely
be collaborated and issued on a day-to-day basis. Heat indices
between 110 and 115 are possible this afternoon and Wednesday.

After midweek, the ridge begins to shift a bit farther east, but
temperatures will remain 4-8 degrees above normal. Expect highs in
the middle to upper 90s through at least Friday.  Heat Advisories
will likely continue.

Extended guidance doesn`t show much relief.  The center of the ridge
will likely shift along the East Coast, but 1000-500 mb
thicknesses(near 582 dam) don`t decrease much through the weekend.
The good news is, not having the ridge directly overhead should
favor a better chance of rainfall.  PoPs trend slightly higher
Friday through Sunday, but don`t expect more than about 25-35%
coverage. The most favorable location for showers will be in west
Tennessee along the Tennessee River and in northeast Mississippi.

12/Sirmon

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025

High pressure aloft and at the surface will bring VFR and light
winds through the next 30 hours.

PWB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1114 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Fire weather danger will continue to remain low this week due to
light winds and high humidity.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for MOZ113-115.

MS...Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for MSZ001>005-007-008-010>012-020.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ006-009-013>017-021>024.

TN...Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...PWB