Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
241 FXUS64 KMEG 110421 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1121 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1120 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026 - A cold front will bring scattered thunderstorm chances to a large part of the Mid-South through early Saturday, offering some minor heat and drought relief. - Drier weather returns Sunday into next week as high pressure strengthens, maintaining dry and above-normal temperatures across the region. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 1120 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026 Warm and muggy conditions currently exist throughout the Mid- South this evening with scattered showers and thunderstorms along and north of I-40 ahead of a surface stationary front. Short-term models show that instability may hang on through the night, hovering around 1500- 2000 J/kg just ahead of the front. Continued lift over the surface front and weak upper height falls ahead of a low-amplitude upper trough will therefore support additional thunderstorm development and/or maintenance into Friday morning. However, weak shear values are expected to keep the severe threat relatively low with strong, gusty winds remaining the primary severe hazard. The weak upper troughing will gradually make its way into the Mid- South through Friday with the stationary boundary remaining across southern MO east into KY. Therefore, surface dewpoints are expected to remain in the upper 60s and low 70s, leading to afternoon MLCAPE values between 2000 - 3000 J/kg across the majority of the Mid-South. CAMs then show diurnal thunderstorms initiating across the region into the early evening, which are forecast to be higher in coverage compared to the past weeks` isolated to non-existent coverage. Wind shear values will be weak, leading to the primary severe hazard being potentially damaging winds from hybrid microbursts. On the other hand, PWATs are forecast to surge well above 2.00", which in combination with storm motions below 20 knots could lead to localized flash flooding. Lastly, temperatures should be marginally cooler than today due to morning cloud cover and outflow from afternoon thunderstorms. Some areas could still breach 105 F heat indices, especially across the MS River Delta in northwest MS and eastern AR. The forecast will warm up through the weekend as the troughing responsible for Friday`s thunderstorms gets swallowed up by synoptic ridging over the southern CONUS. Temperatures on Saturday will already get back up above 95 for the vast majority of the region with similar highs on Sunday and Monday. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible Saturday across portions of north MS and West TN that may lead to local relief from the heat, but PoPs quickly drop to near zero Sunday, which lasts through at least the middle of next week. Therefore, dangerous heat is expected to return early next week with the potential for heat headlines as early as Sunday. Some ensembles are beginning to hint at a pattern change by the latter half of next week with northwesterlies aloft across MS River Valley. However, these members are still too few in number and show high uncertainty. So, although there may be some signs of an end to the current heat wave, it is still too soon to say for sure that the bells will be tolling for this ridge, and the heat, late next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1120 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026 A weak front is stalled just north of I-40 with scattered SHRAs and TSRAs along and north of the front. This activity will skirt JBR overnight, but should remain north of the rest of the terminals. There is a good chance of MVFR cigs at JBR early Friday morning invof the front. Confidence in SHRAs/TSRAs developing Friday afternoon has increased due to a combination of deep moisture, weak mid-level troughing and strong surface heating. Winds will be mostly light outside of TSRAs and generally NE to the north of the front (JBR), variable along the front (MEM, MKL), and light southerly to the south of the front (TUP). && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1120 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026 Scattered thunderstorms and wetting rains will continue tonight along and north of I-40 through Friday morning with additional thunderstorms expected to develop Friday afternoon through the evening hours area-wide. Minimum relative humidity values are forecast to remain at or above 40% through the forecast as tropical-like moisture returns to the region alongside light 20 foot winds. Additional wetting rains are also possible Saturday from daytime thunderstorms. Fog coverage is expected to remain low through the forecast. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB AVIATION...SJM