


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
581 FXUS64 KMEG 250405 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1105 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1105 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 - Heat Advisories will likely be needed over the weekend. Extreme Heat will return for portions of the Mid-South on Sunday and become widespread early next week. - Isolated showers and thunderstorms will provide localized relief from the oppressive heat for a few areas, mainly across northeast Mississippi and near the Tennessee River && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 1105 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Oppressive heat continues across the Midsouth. Overnight lows should fall below 80 across most of the region, although it isn`t out of the question that the Memphis-metro and Delta areas could hover around 80 degrees. Guidances has trended a bit more optimistic regarding cloud cover and rain chances today and Saturday, but still below about 35%. However, heat remains the biggest story in over the next seven days. Due to 10+ consecutive days of intense heat, the heat risk remains remains moderate (2/4) to major (3/4) across the Midsouth. As such, another heat advisory has been issued for the entire region through Friday night. A heat Advisory will also likely be needed Saturday. Extreme heat(heat index equal or greater than 110 degrees) is expected to return Sunday and continue through at least midweek. Temperatures Monday through Wednesday of next week look just as hot, if not a bit hotter than we have seen for the past few days. I wouldn`t hold my breath, because these patterns are typically slower to break down than models predict, but guidance suggests the ridge will begin to deamplify after mid week. If that verifies, we should expect temperatures to trend back closer to normal. Additionally, if guidance consensus is correct, a cold front will move into the region late Thursday into Friday resulting in the best chance of widespread rainfall we have seen in (what will be) about 2 weeks. Is August going to be cooler than July? We can hope. 30/Sirmon && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1105 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Increased rain chances and cloud cover will overspread the airspace on Friday as an upper level ridge pushes east. Guidance continues to bring MVFR CIGs to TUP shortly before sunrise, with VFR ceilings returning by midmorning amidst a widespread Cu field. Despite greater precipitation chances tomorrow, large spatial disparities and low probabilities (<30%) will curb TS mention in TAFs for now. ANS && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1105 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 High heat and humidity will remain in place for the foreseeable future. This pattern will keep fire weather concerns low. Minimum RH`s will be in the middle 50s to middle 60s today and Saturday. Rain chances will increase as we move into the latter parts of next week. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035- 036-048-049-058. MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for MOZ113-115. MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for MSZ001>017-020>024. TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for TNZ001>004-019>022- 048>055-088>092. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS AVIATION...ANS