232
FXUS64 KMEG 262326
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
526 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 300 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2024

Moderate temperatures along with dry conditions will continue
through at least the first half of Wednesday. A cold front will
bring showers and thunderstorms to the area by Wednesday evening
through early Thanksgiving morning. Showers will move out by
Thanksgiving afternoon, with high temperatures in the upper 40s to
mid 50s for the Thanksgiving holiday. Dry and much colder weather
is expected Friday through at least the beginning of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Monday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2024

Dry weather continues today across the Mid-South with some upper-
level clouds based on latest satellite imagery. Clear skies across
southern portions of the CWA coupled with light winds overnight
could lead to some patchy fog development, mainly over north MS.
Incoming clouds ahead of a frontal boundary will likely limit fog
activity over the northern half of the CWA. Overnight lows are
expected to remain near-normal, generally in the mid 30s to low
40s.

Think we will make it through at least the first half of the day
tomorrow rain-free, before some light scattered showers arrive in
the afternoon ahead of a fast-moving frontal boundary. Do expect
temperatures to warm nicely, with high temperatures in the mid 50s
north to mid to upper 60s south. Bulk of any precipitation will
likely move through in the evening to overnight hours, with total
rainfall amounts likely remaining below half an inch. While the
majority of the Mid-South will likely see showers with a few
isolated thunderstorms, there is a very small window of
opportunity for a few strong thunderstorms late Wednesday night
into the early morning hours Thursday. A surface low is expected
to develop across central AR, before quickly moving northeast
through the area and eventually up into Kentucky. This is
important because its eventual movement will play a role in where
the warm front lifts to and if our surface is able to destabilize
across north MS as a result. There is upper and mid level support
that could be conducive for all severe weather modes, but the
vast majority of the CAM guidance suggests the surface ingredients
will be lacking. If we are able to get some more instability and
increase our surface lapse rates across north MS, then the severe
threat would increase. With this being said, there are more
arguments at this point of what would limit the severe potential
than what would make the severe potential happen. It is worth
mentioning with the Marginal Risk from SPC, but the potential does
look very, very low at this time. We will have to watch trends
through the afternoon tomorrow to see where this boundary set ups
and if our atmosphere is able to tap into this or not. Looking at
a combination of ensemble probabilities and latest CAM guidance,
if the atmosphere were able to maximize its potential the main
window of concern would likely be from 9 PM until 3 AM.

Aforementioned frontal boundary will quickly usher out any
lingering moisture by Thursday afternoon, leaving behind a colder
and mostly dry pattern through the foreseeable future. Upper-
level ridge will strength along the eastern U.S. by Friday, with
the Mid-South remaining in an upper-level northwest flow regime
through at least the beginning of next week. Temperatures will
likely remain well below-normal Friday through the weekend, with
highs in the 40s and overnight lows in the 20s to even a few teens
by Sunday Night. Will mention, a few models are hinting at a weak
shortwave late Saturday into Sunday that would clip the far
northeast corner of the CWA. While chances of this are very low at
this point (<20%), given the cold temperatures there could be
some flurries if this were to occur. As mentioned, chances are
very, very low at this point and accumulation is not expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 522 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2024

VFR with variable light winds tonight. SE winds tomorrow 5-10kt.
MVFR cigs will move in late tomorrow along with a few rain showers
ahead of a cold front that will move through the Midsouth
tomorrow night.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...ARS