793
FXUS64 KMEG 072330
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
630 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 620 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

- Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible this
  evening, mainly over east central Arkansas and north
  Mississippi. Damaging winds and large hail will be possible.

- The next round of thunderstorms will arrive Monday, along and
  ahead of a slow-moving cold front. There is a Slight Risk for
  severe thunderstorms along and south of Interstate 40, mainly
  during the day Monday. The main threat will be damaging winds
  and large hail.

- Fair weather and low humidity will prevail Monday night through
  Wednesday. Midsummer-like humidity will return for the latter
  half of next week, along with daily thunderstorm chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

The Midsouth was free of thunderstorms early this afternoon,
behind a line of severe storms that lifted through north MS
earlier today. Last several HRRR runs have depicted additional
storms developing early this evening over east central AR into
north MS. While the boundary layer over north MS has stabilized in
the wake of earlier storms, GOES visible imagery showed clearing
skies over north MS and southwest TN. In addition, the 12Z NAM
depicts high theta-e air surging north at 925mb toward sunset,
under an area of strengthening 250mb divergence. With this in
mind, the HRRR depiction of isolated storms over east central AR
and north MS appears on track.

By midmorning Sunday, slightly drier air will spread into the
Midsouth, behind a weak cold front.

The next round of storms appears on track for Monday, as deep
cut-off upper low settles into the Great Lakes. A reinforcing cold
front will push through the Midsouth Monday, aided by midlevel
height falls. 12Z LREF depicts a greater than 50 percent chance of
surface-based CAPE colocated with 30+KT of deep layer bulk shear
to the west and south of Memphis. The progressive nature of the
cold front and loss of daytime heating should limit Monday`s
severe threat to the daytime hours.

From Monday night through Wednesday, fair and pleasant early
summer weather to prevail, with seasonal temperatures and humidity
levels. This pattern won`t last long however. Global models show
good consensus in developing a cut-off upper level low over the
southern Great Plains on Thursday, with Gulf humidity returning to
the Midsouth in advance of the upper low. 70s dewpoints and daytime
heating will result in a return of daily thunderstorms.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Biggest TAF concern this issuance will be a secondary wave of
convection this evening along a shortwave mainly over north
Mississippi. A TEMPO has been added at TUP for such. This wave
looks to clear the airspace by 06Z. MVFR conditions will begin to
infiltrate MEM/MKL/TUP overnight, lifting back to VFR shortly
after sunrise. West/southwest winds, predominately sub 10 kts,
will shift more northwest toward the end of the period behind a
frontal passage.

AEH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...AEH