Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
200 FXUS64 KMEG 042303 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 603 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 559 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025 - A line of showers and thunderstorms will move through the Mid- South Friday into Saturday, bringing a threat for severe weather. - A Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms is in place for late Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. - A significant cooldown will follow the front, with pleasant, fall-like temperatures featuring highs in the 70s and 80s expected for Sunday into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 107 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025 The latest surface analysis places a cold front from Buffalo, New York southwest into Cleveland, Ohio and back into west Tennessee. This front will be a focus for isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, but the majority of the region will remain dry. Aloft, a large and deep upper low continues to churn over Ontario, Canada with broad troughing from the Northern Plains into the southeastern United States. Tropical Storm Lorena, near Baja California, remains on a northern track towards the peninsula as it continues to weaken. Much-needed rainfall is expected over the next 48 hours as a cold front moves into the Mid-South tomorrow afternoon and pushes through the region on Saturday. Ahead of the front, moisture will pool and temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 90s. The combination of high heat and increasing moisture will fuel a moderate amount of thunderstorm energy, featuring up to 2500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Initially, bulk shear will be quite weak or below 20 knots, however, a mid level jet will set up Friday evening and increase bulk shear between 40 and 50 knots. The degree to which both the shear and instability overlap, still remains a little unclear. Nonetheless, a Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe thunderstorms is in effect from late tomorrow afternoon through early Saturday morning. Thunderstorm mode will initially be surface based along the front in the afternoon hours and then become elevated behind the front Friday evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the main threats with any storms that can become severe. The threat of severe weather will decrease substantially overnight as dry air quickly moves in behind the front. A limited flooding threat may emerge overnight, mainly over north Mississippi, as the front slows down and thunderstorms move over the same locations. Showers should taper off by Saturday afternoon, as expansive surface high pressure builds in. Much drier air will move into the region on Sunday. Temperatures will trend 10-15 degrees below normal each day through at least early next week. Highs will be in the upper 70s and middle 80s with lows in the 50s and 60s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 559 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025 VFR for the next 24 hours. Winds will increase tomorrow ahead of a strong cold front. The front should approach MEM after sunset accompanied by a chance of rain/thunderstorms. Added PROB30 starting at 02Z as an initial starting point for convection and FROPA/wind shift. JBR and MKL will likely require a wind shift and mention of convection in the 06z TAF update. 30/Sirmon && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 107 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025 Relative humidity values will remain elevated through Friday. Only isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast through this time period. A cold front will move through the region Friday night into Saturday and there is a medium chance (40-50%) of widespread wetting rainfall. Seasonably dry air will move back into the region on Sunday behind the front dropping relative humidity back into the 20 to 30 percent range early next week. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3 AVIATION...JDS