679
FXUS64 KMEG 141709
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1109 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1105 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

- Above-normal temperatures and dry conditions will persist through
  the weekend.

- Gusty winds are expected Saturday, with potential criteria
  being met for a Wind Advisory.

- Wet and unsettled weather, including periods of showers and
  thunderstorms, will return next week, with a potential for 1 to
  3 inches of total rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 1137 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will continue
through this weekend as we remain in dry northwest flow aloft.
Highs will be in the low to mid 70s with lows in the 50s each day
or about 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

The main impact on Saturday will be gusty winds ahead of an
approaching front. The pressure gradient will tighten to around
6 to 7 mb across the forecast area, which supports the potential
for gusty winds. NBM probabilities for sustained winds of 20 mph
or more are quite high (70-90% range), suggesting that criteria
for a Wind Advisory may be met.  A weak cold front will move
through the region early Sunday morning, but no rainfall is
expected due to a very dry airmass in place.

Synoptic models are in good agreement with a negatively tilted
shortwave ejecting through the Plains on Monday. A surface low
will develop and lift a warm front through the region Monday
night into Tuesday.  A ribbon of weak to moderate instability
will move into the Mid-South, evidenced by up to 1200 J/kg of
SBCAPE. Model guidance is consistent with the shortwave quickly
deamplifying and surface low filling as it impinges on the Mid-
South. This will effectively weaken the cold front and cause it
to stall over the region. Although bulk shear is expected to be
strong around 50 knots, weak mid level lapse rates will likely
limit the strength of thunderstorms during the day.  Continued
bouts of showers and occasional thunderstorms will persist
Tuesday through Wednesday as the front remains across the region.

Wet and unsettled weather will continue and ramp up by midweek as
a large trough sets up over the Inter-Mountain West and ejects
several shortwaves downstream into the Lower Mississippi Valley
through late week. Although timing and strength of each
successive wave is poorly resolved, there remains a clear signal
for copious amounts of rainfall through late next week. Early QPF
totals range from 1 to 3 inches.

The extended forecast keeps the subtropical jet active with upper
level southwest flow over the Mid-South. This would translate to
continued warm and unsettled weather.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1105 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

VFR conditions will prevail as a weak ridge shifts across the
Midsouth. A midlevel cloud deck should continue to erode this
afternoon. South to southwest winds will increase to around 10 kts
with gusts near 20kts through sunset and remain a bit
elevated(5-8 kts) tonight. Winds will increase again tomorrow to
around 10kts with gusts between 20 and 25kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1137 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Temperatures will remain well above normal through Saturday, with
minimum relative humidity values likely remaining above
35 percent. Transport winds and mixing heights will generally be
low to moderate. However, southerly flow will increase today and
become strong on Saturday.

Overall burning conditions will remain good to moderate through
this weekend. High chances for wetting rain will return
throughout much of next week. Early rainfall totals range from 1
to 3 inches.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...JDS