416
FXUS64 KMEG 151747
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1247 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

- An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect across the entire
  Mid-South through Sunday evening.

- Overnight lows will remain unseasonably warm, preventing
  recovery and creating stress for at-risk populations.

- Heat headlines will likely be needed into next week as upper
  ridging remains over much of the area and hot and humid
  conditions continue.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Another hot day is ahead for us throughout the Mid-South as a
strong, 594+ dm ridge remains centered over the southern
Mississippi River Valley. This morning`s surface observations
already show temperatures climbing into the low 90s, which will
peak around 100 through the majority of the region. Tropical
dewpoints (> 70 F) will therefore help yield afternoon heat index
values above 110 F across the entire region. As such, an Extreme
Heat Warning is in effect area wide. A similar forecast is
expected tomorrow where 110 F heat indices are forecast with the
Extreme Heat Warning still in effect as dangerous heat continues
through the southern and central CONUS. CAMs show that some
showers could develop in the afternoon and evening across
southern MO and northern AR, potentially tracking into portions
of eastern AR and the MO Bootheel. However, the mixing required
to reach the convective temperature (105+ F) would bring LCLs
above 2000 m, promoting enough evaporation of precipitation to
prevent meaningful precipitation from making it to the surface
and reducing heat relief.

The ridge will continue to sit over the region into early next
week with daily highs in the middle to upper 90s, potentially
climbing over 100 F in some areas Monday and Tuesday. One
possible caveat to the forecast next week is that the dewpoints
will decrease through daily mixing of mid-level, dry air to the
surface over the next several days. Lower dewpoints would mean
lower heat index values, which are currently forecast to fall
below 110 F Monday and Tuesday with some areas falling below
105 F Tuesday. However, afternoon temperatures will remain
dangerous and will warrant new heat headlines for some areas, but
have deferred this decision to a later forecast issuance to get a
better gauge on spatial trends of where heat headlines will be
needed.

By the middle of next week and into the following weekend,
ensembles are slowly converging on a new pattern taking hold over
the eastern CONUS. Through the early parts of this upcoming week,
an area of troughing should begin to amplify just off the west
coast  of OR/WA in the Pacific. Downstream ridging will amplify
in response across the Rockies, subjecting the westerlies across
the northern Plains and Midwest to a northwesterly deflection.
The end result is an area of troughing gradually forming over the
eastern CONUS that would act to cool the region. But the level of
cooling is still relative with highs beyond Wednesday forecast to
remain in the 90s with afternoon heat index values approaching
the triple digits. Some rain is possible as troughing settles in
towards the end of the week, but any precipitation would be
associated with diurnal heating and is currently expected to be
isolated to scattered in nature. Regardless, for now, some relief
is finally beginning to appear in the forecast that would bring
an end to the extreme heat plaguing the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

VFR, isolated high-based daytime cumulus and light southwest
winds will continue through Sunday, under strong ridging aloft.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Dangerous heat is forecast to continue through the period with
afternoon heat index values exceeding 110 F through Sunday
afternoon and up to 110 F on Monday. Fire dangers are still
expected to be low amidst minimum relative humidity values
between 30% and 40% with light 20ft winds. Expect dry conditions
with the potential for a couple, light showers across
northeastern AR, the MO Bootheel, and portions of West Tennessee
Sunday evening. Otherwise, precipitation-free conditions will
continue into the early portions of next week.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ009-018-
     026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ001>017-
     020>024.

TN...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for TNZ001>004-
     019>022-048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...PWB