090
FXUS64 KMEG 291814
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1214 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1214 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

- Below-normal temperatures will persist over the next seven
 days.


- A wintry mix may emerge Monday into Tuesday, mainly for areas
north of I-40 near the KY/TN border. No significant

- Uncertainty still exists regarding a low-pressure system next
Tuesday that could bring heavy rain and a mixed precipitation
regime to the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 1214 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

A mix of rain and sleet was observed across a large portion of
the Mid-South this morning, mainly due to precipitation onset
coinciding with below freezing temperatures. Given frigid
temperatures aloft, a few areas may continue to experience light
sleet over the next few hours before precipitation turns to a
cold rain areawide. No sleet accumulation is anticipated. Rain
chances will slowly dissipate tonight as a cold front moves
through the area. Dry conditions resume by midday Sunday with
afternoon highs ranging from the upper 30s to upper 40s.

Another complex forecast emerges on Monday as a Gulf low tracks
over southern Mississippi and Alabama. Ample moisture will funnel
into the Mid-South by mid-morning with precipitable water values
reaching the 90th percentile. Precipitation chances will increase
at this time. One thing to watch out for is a brief period of
mixed precipitation as surface temperatures are forecast to
remain below freezing through about 10AM. Forecast soundings
depict a stout warm nose spanning from 700 - 950 mb, so anything
that does fall will melt before reaching the surface. This regime
will favor a rain / ice pellet mix with ice pellets melting as
they reach the ground. No significant impacts are anticipated
Monday morning. As temperatures warm above freezing, a changeover
to all rain is anticipated by midday.

A different story will materialize Monday night into Tuesday as
temperatures once again fall below freezing. Ample moisture will
remain at this time, keeping our precipitation chances elevated.
A changeover from rain to a wintry mix is anticipated shortly
after sunset, with areas spanning from Jonesboro, AR northeast to
Paris, TN seeing the greatest potential for wintry conditions.
The latest forecast soundings keep the aforementioned warm nose
through the overnight hours. As such, the potential for snow is
on the decline (<15%). While a few flakes cannot be ruled out,
sleet will be the likely precipitation mode. Given the potential
for rain and sleet mixing, any accumulations will be minimal
(less than an inch). A Winter Weather Advisory may be needed in
future forecast updates for areas along the TN/KY border.
Overall, don`t expect a white-out come Tuesday morning. Instead,
keep an eye out for icy overpasses. Precipitation chances will
dissipate Tuesday morning.

Below normal temperatures will persist on Wednesday and Thursday
with highs generally in the 40s and 50s. Another round of
precipitation is anticipated for the end of the work week as a
long wave trough moves across the Central Plains. Some guidance
is depicting yet another wintry mix occurring for areas near the
TN/KY border early Friday. However, large model spread and run-to-
run inconsistencies keep confidence in any winter precipitation
low (<15%). Stay tuned.

ANS

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

There have been a few reports of PL upon the onset of
precipitation across the Mid-South this morning. The chance for
brief PL at MKL and TUP is low as surface temperatures continue
to warm. SHRAs will continue to spread across the region this
afternoon into the evening. VFR cigs will gradually lower to MVFR
later today into this evening and overnight. Expect gusty SE
surface winds ahead of the front, along with LLWS, shifting to
occasionally gusty NW/N winds after frontal passage later
tonight. MVFR cigs will gradually clear out before sunrise at JBR
and by noon at TUP.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1214 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

No significant fire weather concerns through the forecast period.
Relative humidity values will remain above 30 percent across the
area with light winds. Wetting rain chances increase Saturday.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...SJM