573
FXUS64 KMEG 081736
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1136 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1038 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

Low clouds with patchy drizzle and fog persists this morning north
of the stationary front currently located near the I-20 corridor.
Meanwhile surface high pressure is trekking across the Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley. Latest visible imagery shows that low clouds
are eroding north of I-40 with clearing gradually working south.
Expect drizzle to end and patchy fog to lift by this afternoon
with improving conds as drier NE flow continues to erode the low
clouds across the Mid-South. Temps will struggle with low clouds
hanging on so updated and knocked a couple degrees off.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 255 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

Seasonably warm conditions are expected to continue across the
Midsouth for the next several days. Periods of rain and isolated
thunderstorms should result in beneficial rainfall after a dry
October. Slightly cooler temperatures should arrive after
midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 255 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

A ridge over the southeastern US should keep the Midsouth dry
today, but as this feature shifts east this evening, a few showers
will return to east Arkansas and northwest Mississippi overnight.
Strong southwest flow over the weekend will transition into zonal
flow early next week. Saturday and Sunday look wet. Precipitable
water values are expected to reach the 99th percentile for this
time of year over the weekend. Heavy rain is possible, but after
an extremely dry October, the expected 1-2 inches of rain should
be more beneficial than problematic. High temperatures today into
the middle of next week should be generally in the middle 60s to
middle 70s.

Under zonal flow, we should be drier during the early to middle
part of next week. Less cloud cover should result in cooler
morning lows in the 40s to low 50s but high temperatures are
expected to remain warm for November. A weak cold front midweek
may result in another round of showers late Wednesday into
Thursday.

30/Sirmon

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1136 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

The region remains under a vast IFR ceiling that has persisted the
better part of 2-3 days. Some erosion has been noted on visible
satellite in N TN/AR that will eventually make its way to MKL/JBR
this afternoon, and MEM this evening. MVFR will then prevail until
early tomorrow morning as a warm front lifts into the region. Rain
with then start as a new system approaches, lasting through
tomorrow and bringing MVFR vsbys and ceilings.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...JAB