886
FXUS64 KMEG 011812
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1212 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1209 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

- A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect through early Tuesday
morning for areas north of I-40.

- In the Winter Weather Advisory area, total snow and sleet
accumulations will likely remain less than one inch with ice
accumulations less than one tenth of an inch. This could cause
minor impacts to roadways and bridges.

- Dry conditions will resume by Tuesday afternoon, with
precipitation chances returning by Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Sunday)
Issued at 1209 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

As of noon, radar imagery depicts an area of precipitation
stretching across portions of eastern Arkansas. Areas north of I-
40 are reporting brief periods of sleet mixing with rain, while
areas further south remain liquid. Temperatures continue to warm
at this hour with the majority of the Mid-South above freezing.
Additional mixed precipitation is expected through the afternoon
for areas within the Winter Weather Advisory.

The greater chance for mixed precipitation manifests tonight as
temperatures fall below freezing. 12Z soundings at LZK and OHX
depict a warm nose that is shallower than originally forecast.
Most high-res guidance has picked up on this trend and keeps a
small warm nose through the overnight hours. Given a smaller area
of warm air aloft, any flakes that do fall have greater potential
to reach the surface. As such, potential for a changeover from
rain to snow is increasing for areas along the TN/KY border
(around 35%). For areas further south within the advisory, sleet
and occasional freezing rain will be the primary impacts. Minimal
snow and ice accumulations are anticipated due to the relatively
fast progression of precipitation along with low QPF amounts.
Slick roadways and bridges are the primary concern Tuesday
morning for motorists, so use extra caution while commuting. One
thing to note: there is a signal for a brief window of mixed
precipitation extending as far south as the MS/TN border late
tonight. Should this occur, impacts are not expected as rain will
be the predominant precipitation mode.

Conditions will dry out on Tuesday as zonal flow returns. Our
warmest day of the week will be Wednesday with highs ranging from
the mid 40s to low 50s. Also on Wednesday, a busy synoptic
pattern will emerge as a trough ejects out of the Rockies, and an
upper low pushes a cold front into the northern Plains. This
front will sag into the Mid-South on Thursday, bringing cold
temperatures and highs in the 30s and 40s. Further south along
the coast, a Gulf low will form and advect increased moisture
into the region. This will set the stage for another round of
precipitation. Confidence is low (20%) for a wintry mix next
Thursday into Friday as rain chances continue to decline with
each model run. We will continue to monitor this system for
updates. The busy synoptic pattern will continue into the weekend
with additional rain chances manifesting early Sunday.

ANS

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

The HRRR continues to have the best handle on the evolution of the
winter precipitation in the short-term. P-type remains the
biggest question for the 18z TAF update. No significant changes
made to the previous issuance. Rain should move into the airspace
around 21z and briefly change over to a mixture of rain/sleet
between sunset and midnight. Precip should exit the airspace
around midnight. MVFR to IFR cigs are expected overnight with
gradual improvement tomorrow. Prevailing winds will remain north
to northeast through the TAF cycle.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1209 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

No major fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future with
wetting rain chances through Tuesday morning. MinRH above 40% and
light 20ft winds will keep fire weather chances minimal.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for ARZ009-018-
     026>028-035-036-048.

MO...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for MOZ113-115.

MS...None.
TN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for TNZ001>004-
     019>022-048>052-054-055.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...JDS