092
FXUS64 KMEG 212339 AAA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
Issued by National Weather Service Little Rock AR
535 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 202 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Dry and cool conditions will continue through Saturday, before a
brief warm up in temperatures Sunday and Monday. Many rural
locations will likely experience their first freeze of the season
tonight and again tomorrow night. Rain chances return Monday into
Monday night, with an unsettled and uncertain weather pattern by
the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 202 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Dry and windy day across the Mid-South with several locations
seeing wind gusts around 30 mph at times. Cold front remains just
to the north of the CWA and is expected to pass through later
tonight, keeping winds elevated through the early evening. Behind
this front, a slightly colder air mass will arrive with overnight
temperatures falling into the 30s areawide. Still think some rural
locations, especially across West TN and north MS, will likely
see their first freeze of the season tonight and again tomorrow
night. Aforementioned cold front will aid to keep things below-
normal again tomorrow and Saturday, with high temperatures
expected to remain in the 50s under a sunny sky.

Very weak ridge pattern will begin to build through the region on
Sunday, with WAA returning to the area. This will allow
temperatures to climb back to above normal to start next week,
with high temperatures in the 60s Sunday and upper 60s to mid 70s
on Monday. A very weak frontal boundary will clip the area Monday
Night, bringing a chance of showers to the region and knocking
temperatures back down by Tuesday. Total rainfall amounts will be
pretty minimal, with most of the area seeing less than 0.25" when
all is said and done.

Upper-level flow regime will become somewhat zonal by Tuesday into
the middle of next week. As we transition into the latter half of
the week, models continue to struggle with the progression of an
upper-level low as it moves out of the western U.S. Models
continue to highlight a more active weather pattern by late
Wednesday into the Thanksgiving Holiday, but uncertainty remains.
As things stand now, things are trending wetter for the holiday
with near to below normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 535 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

VFR conditions are expected for the most part, but a deck of
low stratus may encroach on MKL`s airspace late in the afternoon
on Friday. Have included a window of 2500 ft CIGs there but
otherwise kept the status quo of clear skies and NW winds around
10 kts.

CAD

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...CAD