387
FXUS64 KMEG 071201
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
601 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1123 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

- Dense fog is expected early Sunday morning across the Midsouth. Visibility
  less than one-quarter mile will accompany any fog.

- Temperatures will moderate through the weekend, warming to near normal
  highs in the 50s on Sunday.

- A cold front will pass through the Midsouth late Sunday, returning
  temperatures to below normal Monday. By Wednesday, temperatures
  will moderate back into the 50s, ahead of a cold front
  Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 1123 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Evening upper air analysis shows a longwave trough axis
stretching from the Great Lakes Region back through West Texas
with an upper-level ridge along the U.S. West Coast. GOES
nighttime fog product and regional METAR observations show an
area of low stratus along the I-20 corridor in Mississippi and
another area mostly along and north of I-40 in western and
central Arkansas. Evening surface observations show near
saturation across most sites as of 11 PM with localized reduced
visibility scattered across the forecast area. Latest short-term
and ensemble guidance indicates dense fog and low stratus are
expected to develop overnight especially south of I-40. A Dense
Fog Advisory has been issued for portions of east Arkansas and
all of North Mississippi through 10 AM CST. Conditions will be
monitored overnight for any potential expansion into West
Tennessee.

Short-term model trends continue to indicate a surface low over
West Texas moving along the Gulf Coast while a cold front north
of I-70 in Missouri and Kansas will move south into the region on
Sunday. There is a low chance (20-30%) of rain showers Sunday
afternoon and evening with most areas remaining dry due to
limited moisture accompanying the front. Wintry precipitation
remains very low (10% or less) across northwest Tennessee Sunday
night as colder air is expected to lag behind the precipitation
that will be exiting into middle Kentucky and Tennessee. Cold
high pressure will build in on Monday with highs expected to
surpass the 40s.

Temperatures are expected to moderate for the middle of next week
back into the 50s as high pressure moves east as southerly return
flow develops over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Another cold
front will bring a low chance (20-30%) for rain showers to areas
east of the Mississippi River late next week. Colder arctic air
behind this latter system will result in highs in the 30s with
lows in the teens to lower 20s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 600 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Expect a mix of flight rules to begin this TAF cycle. IFR CIGs
and/or VSBYs will be the rule this morning. Dense fog is likely
(greater than 50% chance) at MKL and MEM in the short term, with
less confidence at JBR and TUP. Nonetheless, LIFR CIGs and VSBYs
were added in a tempo group for highest confidence locations. Hi-
res guidance suggests that MEM and MKL could see dense fog for an
extended period this morning. CIGs will be slow to lift this
afternoon as a cold front moves through the Mid-South from the
northwest. A sharp wind shift will occur by late afternoon at all
sites.

TUP will have the best chance of SHRAs this evening with the
frontal passage. The rest of the sites will see dry conditions
and moderate north winds through the end of the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1123 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Patchy dense fog will affect much of the Midsouth again early
Sunday. No fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future with
MinRH values remaining above 40%. Other than isolated to
scattered
showers on Sunday, dry conditions are expected through midweek.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for ARZ009-018-
     026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for MOZ113-115.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for MSZ001>017-
     020>024.

TN...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for TNZ001>004-
     019>022-048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...AC3