490
FXUS64 KMEG 072343
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
543 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1143 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

- There is a 30-50% chance of rain showers in north Mississippi this
  evening.

- Temperatures will turn cooler early in the work week. Highs will
  remain in the 40s Monday, but moderate through Thursday.

- An Arctic air mass will move into the Midsouth next weekend.
  Saturday morning lows are expected to be in the teens with highs
  in the upper 20s to middle 30s.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Saturday)
Issued at 1143 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

A weak cold front will move across the Midsouth this afternoon.
A surface low will develop along the front as it approaches the
Gulf Coast and an inverted trough associated with the low will
result in a 30-50% chance of rain showers this afternoon and
evening across northeast Mississippi.

The current CONUS upper air pattern features a broad deep trough
across the eastern two thirds of the Nation.  Its axis is
oriented from the Great Lakes into South Texas.  Farther west a
weak ridge is centered over California, Washington and Oregon.
This general pattern will slowly shift to the east over the next
36 to 48 hours resulting in northwest flow across the Midsouth.
During the same timeframe, at the surface, high pressure
currently over the Northern Plains will shift over the northern
Ohio Valley and a 1006mb surface low will move into northern
Minnesota. The Midsouth will be mostly influenced by the southern
extent of the surface high resulting in dry conditions early next
week.  High temperatures Monday will be in the 40s with a warming
trend through Thursday.

Wednesday into Thursday the surface low will deepen as it tracks
across the Great Lakes.  A series of cold fronts will sweep
across the Midsouth late Wednesday into Thursday.  Moisture ahead
of these features will be limited, so any chance of rainfall will
remain low(less than 25%) and any accumulation will be less than
a few hundredths of an inch. Cooler conditions return Thursday
with high temperatures by Friday mostly in the middle 30s to
middle 40s. Conditions look frigid next weekend.  Saturday is
expected to be the coldest day, featuring morning lows in the
teens to low 20s and highs in the upper 20s to middle 30s.

30/Sirmon

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 542 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

MVFR conditions are predominant at all sites except JBR as of 00Z
TAF issuance. Confidence remains high for a gradual deterioration
of MVFR ceilings to IFR conditions tonight as a cold front passes
through the region. Ceilings are expected to gradually improve to
MVFR conditions Monday morning and towards VFR conditions at JBR
and MEM by Monday afternoon. A medium chance (30-40%) for rain
showers will exist at TUP this evening.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1143 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

No fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future with MinRH
values remaining above 40%. Other than isolated to scattered
showers this afternoon/evening and again Thursday, dry conditions
are expected.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...CJC