Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
177 FXUS64 KMEG 021756 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1156 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1155 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 - Rain chances return Friday with a low (15%) probability of wintry mix . - Dry conditions will resume by the middle of the day on Tuesday, with precipitation chances returning by Friday. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Monday) Issued at 1155 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 Light radar returns this afternoon suggest a few flurries are impacting areas near the MS/TN border. No accumulations are anticipated with any flakes that do fall. Cold temperatures will persist overnight with lows falling into the 20s areawide. There is potential for patchy freezing fog tonight, mainly in areas of west TN and north MS. A Freezing Fog Advisory may be needed if visibilities drop below a quarter of a mile. High pressure will build into the Mid-South on Wednesday, allowing WAA to dominate with afternoon highs returning to the 40s and 50s. Unfortunately, warmer temperatures will not last long as a large upper level trough ejects a weak front towards the Mid-South. Highs on Thursday will vary widely with areas near the TN/KY border remaining in the 30s. Further south into Mississippi, highs will reach the upper 40s. Elsewhere in CONUS on Thursday, a weak shortwave will eject from the Rockies. This feature will continue to weaken as it approaches the Mid-South, but will provide enough lift to encourage precipitation development Thursday and Friday. At this time, a complex forecast emerges as temperatures fall below freezing Thursday evening. Forecast soundings depict a shallow warm nose present over the region at this time. Given the skinny nature of this warm nose, a few flakes may be able to overcome any warm air and reach the surface. The more plausible scenario would be a changeover from rain to freezing rain, with the SREF placing a 15% chance of this happening for areas near the TN/KY border. Some guidance does erode the aforementioned warm nose overnight, which would encourage more snow showers in the region. A few slick spots on roadways and bridges will emerge on Friday should any wintry mix fall the night before. Otherwise, expect minimal impacts. The upcoming weekend will be defined by a messy synoptic pattern and increased rain chances on Sunday. The good news is that temperatures look to return to near normal next week with highs in the 40s and 50s by Tuesday. ANS && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1155 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 Lingering low clouds will likely persist through most of the day. Surface high pressure and a weak ridge building in from the west should result in VFR conditions tonight and tomorrow at JBR and MEM. Clouds will linger longer at TUP and MKL. Weak light winds overnight will promote the development of BR/FG (or freezing fog) near MKL with a lower chance near TUP. However, confidence in fog/freezing fog is too low to include it as a prevailing condition at this time. Weak south winds, generally 5kts or less, will return to the airspace tomorrow. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1155 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 No major fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future with minRH values remaining above 40% and light 20ft winds. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS AVIATION...JDS