141
FXUS64 KMEG 040429
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1129 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1126 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

- Dry conditions are expected to continue through at least
  Wednesday morning. High temperatures will climb into the upper
  80s to near 90 degrees.

- An unsettled weather pattern will return by Thursday through the
  weekend, with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms.
  Strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rain are possible.

- Temperatures will cool slightly behind a front this weekend.
  Highs will drop into the low 80s for portions of the area
  Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Monday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Warmer weather continues today as upper ridging persists with a
rex block holding things in place across the southeast CONUS. NBM
temperatures today are forecast to reach up into the upper 80s,
but smoke and CU will keep much of the area from reaching their
first 90 degree day. Strong diurnal mixing of the boundary layer
will allow wind gusts to mix down. Winds at the top of the
boundary layer are in the 15-20 knot range which should be the
upper limit of any gusts this afternoon.

The rex block to our east will slowly fade as the upper low within
it fills in Wednesday. This will allow for subtle height falls
across the region as a new upper wind max moves in from the west.
Dew points are expected to remain high in the upper 60s and 70s.
Shower and thunderstorm development is uncertain since upper and
surface forcing will still be to our west. Regardless, a few
showers are possible but a more appreciable severe and heavy rain
threat is unlikely.

By Thursday, the rex block is all but gone with a predominantly
zonal pattern over the central CONUS. Upper winds will remain weak
as the speed max continues to inch closer to the Midsouth.
However, subtle height falls and diurnal heating will finally
allow for enough thermodynamic support to promote shower and
thunderstorm development. The SPC has a portion of northeast
Arkansas in a Marginal (1/5) Risk for severe thunderstorms,
primarily for wind and hail. The rest of the region is forecast to
have sub-severe showers and storms through the evening, likely
ending after sunset.

The severe threat begins to ramp up Friday into this weekend. The
speed max to our west noses into the Midsouth Friday afternoon
with the potential for a morning QLCS. Even with the presence of
airmass modification, MLCAPE is forecast to reach into the
2000-3000 J/kg by late afternoon range with effective shear
breaching 30 knots. Mid-level lapse rates are only somewhat
meager (6.5-7 C/km), but large CAPE will still allow for strong
updrafts. The tornado threat is limited with predominantly
straight hodographs. The SPC has outlined the vast majority of the
area in a Slight (2/5) Risk for wind and hail. With the potential
for multiple rounds of storms, this forecast is still tentative
and will likely be refined further in the coming days.

More storms are possible Saturday as a front begins to move into
the region under a northwesterly veering upper pattern. By late
afternoon, most guidance has the front in the center of the CWA
with areas to its south having the greatest threat for severe
weather. Again, moderate MLCAPE and sufficiently strong shear will
promote enough storm organization for a wind and hail threat and
another Slight (2/5) Risk. More storms are possible Sunday, but
forecast confidence decreases substantially due to the evolution
of prior days` convection. Furthermore, an increasingly hostile
upper pattern for convection decreases the threat of severe
weather through the end of the period. Nonetheless, northwest
flow aloft and a cold frontal passage will at least bring cooler
weather to the Midsouth into next week with a gradual warming
trend and low to medium (30-50%) shower potential to end the
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1126 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

VFR. South/southeast winds will remain sub 10 kts through the
overnight hours. South winds will gust up to 20 kts at JBR/MEM
tomorrow afternoon, dropping out by sunset.

AEH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...AEH