081
FXUS64 KMEG 232321
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
521 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 249 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Dry weather continues with a gradual warming trend through Monday.
Light showers will move through the area Monday night before
cooler weather returns Tuesday through the remainder of next week.
Another round of showers and isolated thunderstorms is expected by
Wednesday night into the Thanksgiving Holiday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 249 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Sunny and cool weather prevails across the Mid-South this
afternoon, perfect fall weather if you ask me. Things have been a
bit drier than previously forecast, allowing our temperatures to
creep up a few more degrees into the mid to upper 50s for much of
the area. Another quiet overnight period is expected, with
temperatures falling back into the 30s to low 40s. With clear
skies and calm winds, do think some frost is possible once again
across portions of West TN and north MS.

Surface high will continue to drift eastward tomorrow, with
additional warm air moving through the region. While sunny skies
will remain, do expect temperatures to return to above normal
Sunday and Monday. High temperatures tomorrow will be in the mid
to upper 60s, with highs on Monday in the upper 60s to mid 70s. By
Monday night, a weak frontal boundary is expected to move through
the area. Forcing will be pretty limited, with QPF amounts
remaining only around a tenth of an inch or less. A brief spell of
cooler and dry weather returns on Tuesday, with high temperatures
in the 50s.

A quick-moving upper-level trough will move across the region into
the latter half of next week, bringing a cooler and wet pattern into
the Thanksgiving holiday. Models have been struggling with the
timing and strength of this pattern, but have begun to settle on a
weaker upper-level pattern with a quick, moving surface frontal
boundary. As such PoP chances will increase Wednesday night and
through the day Thursday, but there is increasing confidence in
PoPs moving out quickly Thursday night, leaving behind a dry
Friday. As things stand right now, nothing is jumping off the page
in regards to severe weather across the Mid-South. Do think we
will have a little bit of instability across north MS, but don`t
think the atmosphere will be able to utilize this in anything
more than a few thunderstorms. Drier and cooler weather will move
in by Friday behind this frontal boundary, with a consensus of
high temperatures in the 40s to low 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 520 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period.
Light southerly near surface winds overnight will increase by
tomorrow morning with gusts up to 20 knots at MEM and JBR. A low
level jet looks to ramp up across the region tomorrow evening,
resulting in wind shear of 40 to 45 knots at FL020.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...JPR