437
FXUS64 KMEG 042321 AAA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
621 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 619 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

- A prolonged period of dangerous heat will continue through at
  least next week. An areawide Heat Advisory remains in effect
  through Sunday for heat indices ranging from 100 to 109 degrees.

- Largely dry conditions will continue across the Mid-South over
  at least the next seven days. Overall drought conditions are
  expected to worsen in the coming weeks with this prolonged hot
  and dry period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

This remains a persistence forecast as hot and largely dry
conditions continue across the Mid-South. Highs in the upper 90s
to lower 100s will be present each day through the holiday
weekend as an anomalous ridge dominates the region for an
extended period. An areawide Heat Advisory will remain in effect
through 8 PM Sunday for heat indices up to 109 F. A small shift
in the synoptic pattern will come into fruition late Saturday
into early Sunday as this week`s upper-level ridging begins to
retrograde over the Plains and weak northerly flow begins to move
over the eastern Mississippi Valley. A weak backdoor cold front
and cold air advection will also begin to make its way across the
Mid-South early Sunday. However, without a cold airmass trailing
behind this front, we won`t see much movement in the way of
temperatures, just a wind shift. As far as precipitation goes,
increased Gulf moisture in combination with peak daytime heating
will allow for a few pop-up showers and storms both this
afternoon and tomorrow afternoon. Though any precipitation that
does fall will not be appreciable. Past tomorrow, dry air
trailing behind the front will decrease moisture across the area
resulting in little to no precipitation next week.

The latest ensemble members have this ridge building back east by
midday Monday. One thing to note, dry air and cold air advection
behind the aforementioned front is expected to decrease dewpoints
with many areas seeing readings well into the 60s to potential
upper 50s Monday and Tuesday. Though the ridge begins to build
back east, keeping highs in the upper 90s to lower 100s next
workweek, heat indices may be able to skirt just below the 105F
Heat Advisory threshold. With prolonged heat and little to no
overnight relief, heat headlines may still be warranted past
Sunday, but decisions on such will be made in subsequent forecast
packages as details become more clear. Bottom line, it is going
to remain hot and dry for at least the next 2 weeks. A worsening
of drought conditions is expected as this prolonged stent of
little to no precipitation persists. The latest CPC 8-14 day
outlook has us highlighted in a 70-80% chance for above normal
temperatures through mid September.

AEH

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Surface high pressure centered over the Midsouth will keep winds
light and variable tonight. Winds will tend to favor a northeast
direction on Saturday, but will remain light.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Isolated showers and thunderstorms can`t be ruled out both this
and tomorrow afternoon, but wetting rain is not expected. While
winds will remain light and variable over the next several days,
hot temperatures will result in minimum relative humidity of
35 to 40 percent. A weak cold front will pass through early
Sunday. This front will switch winds to the north/northeast and
lower minimum relative humidity to 30 to 35 percent. Due to dry
soil conditions, nighttime fog is not expected over the next
several days. Fire weather danger concerns will increase heading
into next week with persistent dry fuels present.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-
     036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for TNZ001>004-019>022-
     048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...PWB