Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
715 FXUS64 KMEG 080504 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1204 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1203 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026 - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to persist through Tuesday. - Significant heat and humidity will build across the Mid-South by mid-week. - Daily high temperatures are forecast to reach the 90s with heat indices climbing above 100F by mid-week, likely requiring heat headlines. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 1203 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026 What has been a fairly active weather day is finally winding down as of late Sunday evening. We`ll have a lull during the overnight hours before another active weather day starts up early Monday morning. The 00Z suite of CAMs are starting to come together on a decaying MCS rotating about a shortwave trough axis originating in southeast Kansas shortly after 12Z Monday. The next "wave" of showers and thunderstorms looks to move through along northwesterly flow around noon Monday, lasting through sunset. This isn`t necessarily a frontal passage, as there is almost no synoptic support this far south. It`s more like a trough axis that will transport a messy line of convection. DCAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg will support strong downdrafts in any storms that are able to tap into the instability field. This is a low-end severe weather threat featuring mainly localized heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Expect a persistence forecast on Tuesday with more decaying convection from the central Plains, enhanced by diurnal heating in the afternoon. By midweek, things start to dry out and heat up as a midlevel ridge builds in over the eastern CONUS. Temperatures in the mid to latter half of the work week are in the low to mid 90s - about 5 degrees above normal for most places. Right on cue with meteorological summer, heat headlines will likely be needed as early as Tuesday. Though temperatures will be a couple degrees lower on Tuesday, a weak stationary front may cause dewpoints to pool and thus increase humidity values into Heat Advisory territory regardless. Once the midlevel ridge moves in on Wednesday, temperatures soar to the point where heat headlines may be warranted through the end of the week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026 Current VFR conditions are expected to degrade to MVFR over the next several hours. Ceilings are expected to lift back to VFR beginning around 18Z. Southwest winds will begin to gust up to 25 kts at JBR/MEM/MKL shortly after sunrise. During peak afternoon heating, a weak MCS looks to move across terminals, however, confidence remains on the lower end for timing and coverage, therefore, PROB30s look to be the best way to handle such at MEM/MKL/TUP. Opted for a TEMPO at JBR as confidence was slightly higher. AEH && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1203 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026 Fire weather concerns will remain low through the forecast period. Widespread wetting rain is expected across much of the area through Monday, further mitigating fire risk. Even as high heat returns mid-week, elevated humidity levels will prevent significant fire weather concerns. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD AVIATION...AEH