327
FXUS64 KMEG 052322
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
522 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 300 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Above normal temperatures will prevail across the Mid-South through
Saturday. A warm front will push isolated showers and occasional
thunderstorms across much of the area through tomorrow. A cold
front will decrease temperatures to slightly below normal
beginning Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Today`s slow moving warm front, currently extending just south of
the Mississippi and Tennessee state line, has brought an
interesting weather display to the Mid-South. North of the warm
front has remained socked in with widespread fog and temperatures
in the upper 40s to lower 60s. South of the warm front, slight
clearing has begun with temperatures in the mid 60s to lower 70s.
North of the Tennessee and Mississippi state line, thunderstorms
continue to track southwest to northeast in a marginal convective
environment with wind shear up to 45 kts and MUCAPE upwards of
1200 J/kg. Nevertheless, the main concern with these storms today
has been the flood potential. Cells have been efficient rainfall
makers with PWATs around 1.6", which is around the 90th
percentile for this time of year. As we move through the rest of
the day, a shortwave will give lift to isolated showers and
thunderstorms, mainly north of the Tennessee and Mississippi state
line. A conditional chance for severe weather will remain through
early tomorrow morning as moderate wind shear (>30 kts) and
marginal MUCAPE (>500 J/kg) stays fixed over West Tennessee.
Though, as we have remain socked in, a lack of daytime heating
this afternoon may also inhibit any potential for severe weather
through the rest of today.

Heading into tomorrow, another shortwave will eject from the west
and into the Middle-Mississippi Valley as our warm front becomes
nearly stationary over northeast Arkansas and the Missouri
Bootheel. Isolated showers and occasional thunderstorms will
remain possible tomorrow as these weather systems impact our area.
Although severe weather is not expected as heights rise tomorrow,
another 0.5-1" is expected. Behind the warm front, tomorrow`s
temperatures will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Come Friday,
today`s warm front will dip back south as a cold front as we
remain quasi-zonal in the upper levels. Temperatures will be a
little cooler with highs in the 50s and 60s north of I-40 and in
the 60s and 70s south of I-40. As this front dips south, a few
isolated showers will occur along the front with the greatest
amounts north of I-40. Saturday will be another warm day in the
70s as this same front lifts back north as a warm front, though no
precipitation is expected with its trek north.

More rainfall will be brought in on Sunday with the movement of a
cold front. Rainfall amounts will be nothing to write home about
as less than an inch of rainfall is expected with this system.
Temperatures finally fall closer to normal in wake of the cold
frontal passage. Highs will generally be around 20 degrees cooler
with readings in the 40s and 50s. Monday through at least mid-
week, weak southwest upper level flow will move over the region.
However, as the aforementioned cold front stalls with a cooler
airmass behind it, temperatures will remain slightly below normal
through this period. Ensembles are hinting at a secondary cold
front moving across the region Tuesday, which could bring even
more rainfall and even cooler temperatures to the Mid-South by
mid-week. Stay tuned.

AEH

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 512 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move across the northern
half of the Mid-South this evening north of a warm front.
Additional showers and a few thunderstorms are expected for Thursday
afternoon. Mainly MVFR/IFR ceilings are expected for this evening
lowering to IFR/LIFR conditions overnight. Winds will remain from
the south at 10 to 15 knots with some higher gusts for much of
the forecast period. Some low level wind shear is possible
overnight for areas north of the warm front.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...ARS