414
FXUS64 KMEG 010746
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
246 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 151 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

- Thunderstorms continue to rumble across the Midsouth today,
  especially along and south of the I-40 corridor. After today,
  rain chances look low.

- Temperatures will trend a degree or two warmer each day this
  week, climbing back into the low to middle 90s by the weekend.

- Independence Day looks to be clear and dry with highs in the
  low to middle 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 151 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

A line of showers and thunderstorms along a weak cold front are
currently moving across west Tennessee and north Mississippi.
Radar trends have shown slow weakening of storms, although over the
last hour or so, satellite imagery shows cooling cloud tops.
20-30 kt wind gusts, and brief heavy rainfall can be expected
through sunrise as the front moves into middle Tennessee and north
Alabama.

The front will bring temporary relief from the extreme heat for
the first few days of July. Most of the Midsouth should enjoy
sub-90 degree temperatures today and Wednesday. Showers and
thunderstorms may redevelop this afternoon across north
Mississippi and west Tennessee near the Tennessee River, but
overall we should see a drier pattern across the Midsouth
beginning tonight. Short term guidance is in poor agreement as to
the extent of redevelopment this afternoon, but the highest
coverage of storms should be over norheast Mississippi.

A trough oriented from Ohio into south Mississippi will shift
along the East Coast over the next 48 hours as a ridge currently
over the Plains builds east over the Mississippi River Valley.
Temperatures should trend a degree or two warmer tomorrow through
Independence day, leveling off in the middle 90s next weekend. As
temperatures trend warmer, we will likely see an increase in
diurnally driven thunderstorms over the weekend into early next
week, but widespread rainfall does not look likely.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Leading edge of broken TSRA line was just north of MEM at 0545Z.
The leading edge will pass through by 0630Z or so, with some
isolated SHRA/TSRA possible behind the line through 0730Z.

The boundary will sag into north MS overnight, with sufficient
support for isolated TSRA at TUP. For Tuesday, TUP will see a
secondary period of possible TSRA, while the remainder of the
Midsouth TAF sites catch a break from storms.

VFR and light winds expected for the Tuesday evening MEM inbound
push.

PWB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 151 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Fire weather concerns will continue to remain low over the next 7
days. Wetting rain will continue across portions of west Tennessee
and north Mississippi this afternoon. A much drier pattern is
expected Wednesday through the weekend. Minimum relative humidity
values will remain at or above 45% over the next week.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...PWB