805
FXUS64 KMEG 261946
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
246 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 211 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

- Summertime-like showers and thunderstorms will pop up today and
  tomorrow, but no organized severe weather is expected through
  the weekend.

- A cold front will move through on Tuesday, bringing at least a
  15% chance of severe weather for areas north of the I-40
  corridor.

- Minor flooding will continue along the Mississippi and Saint
  Francis Rivers through the weekend, with river levels continuing
  to slowly fall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

KNQA is currently picking up a few areas of nearly stationary
showers across north Mississippi. This activity may pick up in
coverage over the next few hours, transitioning to more scattered
thunderstorms reminiscent of summertime convection. By tomorrow, a
large warm front extending from eastern KS to central MS will
support a few WAA showers and thunderstorms, but there is hardly
any organizational shear available. Have kept PoPs in the 20-30%
range this weekend mostly due to the broad swath of spatial
coverage painted by several of the CAMs through tomorrow night.

After a very brief benign period to start the work week, our
pattern once again becomes active as a strong surface low over the
Great Lakes drapes a very long cold front all the way down to
west Texas on Tuesday. As this system approaches, almost the
entire pre-frontal corridor has some semblance of organized severe
weather potential given the favorable shear, instability, and
forcing overlap. The Mid-South is currently outlooked for at
least a 15% chance of severe weather on Tuesday for areas north of
I-40, which may be drawn a bit too far east based on the forecast
surface analyses for Tuesday and Wednesday. Trying to match up
the deterministic global models` precip timing with the front`s
eastward advancement, Tuesday looks more favorable for the Ozarks
and ArkLaTex areas out to our west. Would say this is probably a
lower confidence severe weather threat, but would not be surprised
to see something drawn for D5/Wednesday eventually as that front
stalls out over the Mid-South overnight Wednesday into Thursday.

Another cold front follows closely behind by Thursday afternoon,
keeping widespread PoPs above 40% through Friday. It`s a little
too soon to really diagnose severe potential for late week, but
will note that all the messy convection and WAA showers from the
beginning of the week may have an impact on the late week pattern,
further contributing to uncertainty. It does look like we`ll dry
out again, at least temporarily, by next Saturday. Long range
temperatures look near normal (highs around 80) with below normal
precip to kick off May.

CAD

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

MVFR cigs have remained across much of the Mid-South, with some
gradual clearing expected over the next few hours. VFR conditions
will likely prevail through the evening and overnight hours,
before -SHRA moves in from the west. Have more confidence in at
least some impacts for JBR during the current TAF period, with
less confidence for MEM. NE winds will become E/SE near the end of
the current TAF period.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...CMA