627
FXUS64 KMEG 240732
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
232 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 232 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

- Hot and humid conditions will continue through the rest of the week.
  A Heat Advisory remains in effect areawide until Friday night
  due to triple digit indices with little relief in the overnight
  hours

- Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms will occur each day
  through at least midweek, but provide little to no relief from
  the heat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

A warm night is underway at the 2 AM hour with temperatures in the
70s to low 80s. Despite the warm feeling, most of the Mid-South
is running a few degrees cooler than 24 hours ago. A 595dam ridge
continues to dominate the weather pattern with little to no change
expected until late week. Weak southerly flow will continue to
pull moisture into the region and dewpoints will remain in the
70s. These high moisture profiles, combined with 90 degree air
temperatures will result in heat indices in the triple digits
once again and unfortunately remain there until a pattern change.
A Heat Advisory remains in effect until Friday at 9 PM.

Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms remain possible each day.
Due to the dominant area of high pressure, shear remains very weak,
so organized convection is not anticipated. The juicy air, however,
will allow for brief, heavy downpours that could accumulate quickly.

The end of the work week is showing the first signal of an
airmass change, but there is still a bit of discrepancy amongst
long term models. The LREF and its ensemble members keep at least
a 590dam ridge with very little change to the weather pattern
until early next week as zonal and northwest flow takeover. The
ECMWF and the GFS show an area of low pressure forming over the
Mid-Atlantic region as early as Thursday night. This would allow
the zonal and northwest flow to takeover sooner than the LREF
solution. Both of these setups will allow for more widespread
shower and thunderstorm coverage, but stay tuned for timing and
rainfall totals.


DNM

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1017 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

This set of TAFs is once again a persistence forecast. Included
PROB30s for all sites with afternoon convection tomorrow/Tuesday
that looks to mirror exactly what we saw today: sparse coverage of
TSRAs after 18Z with a Cu field. Light south winds during the
daylight hours and nearly calm overnight.

CAD

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 232 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Hot and humid conditions will persist through late week. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms will occur each afternoon, but
widespread wetting rain is not expected.

20 foot winds will remain less than 7 knots each day with nearly
calm winds overnight each night. Widespread fog is not expected
despite calm winds and clear skies.

DNM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Friday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-
     036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Friday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Friday for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Friday for TNZ001>004-019>022-
     048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...CAD