622
FXUS64 KMEG 082335 AAA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
635 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 621 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

- A warming trend will continue through the weekend with afternoon
  highs in the low to mid 90s.

- Rain chances remain low (up to 30 percent) this weekend, but
  increase through next week. By Monday, daily precipitation
  chances will be 40 to 50 percent through the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Thursday)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

Morning visible satellite reveals another quiet morning across the
region with a few overnight showers having dissipated. In the
meantime, high pressure continues to build as upper height rises
occur behind the weak trough that has moved to our east over the
last few days. As such, temperatures have already risen and highs
are anticipated to be in the 90s area-wide starting this
afternoon. With increasing temperatures, surface theta e will also
begin rising as tropical moisture remains throughout the region
allowing diurnal showers to return. Although CAMs aren`t very
confident on rain this afternoon, morning upper air profiles from
surrounding regions already show > 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE which will
only grow through the day. Additionally, a weak remnant MCV is
propagating south over the Mississippi River, which could be an
additional focus point for deeper convection this afternoon.
Regardless, a few showers or thunderstorms appear likely this
afternoon across Tennessee and northeast Mississippi, diminishing
in strength after sunset.

Highs will stay in the 90s this weekend as ridging persists or
even strengthens into next week. Although upper moisture has
continued to be lacking, daily showers have managed to develop
through the week. PoPs may be underdone for tomorrow afternoon
but high forecast uncertainty precludes an increase in PoPs at
this time. NBM guidance has been trending towards higher PoPs,
bringing 30% to portions of northeast Mississippi, a significant
uptrend from 24 hours ago. This trend is seen moving forward
through the forecast as well with upwards of 50% across north
Mississippi Monday and Tuesday. The primary driver of this
increasing likelihood in precipitation is an increase in upper
moisture as ridging builds to our east, allow for moisture
advection from lower latitudes. Therefore, next week is looking
wetter with daily showers and storms across the majority of the
region starting Monday.

As precipitation chances increase next week, temperatures are
still forecast to stay in the mid 90s. Heat indices remain around
100 F through the period with isolated areas reaching 105 F. Some
uncertainty still exists within the temperature forecast with
higher rain chances, which could mute high temperatures in some
areas. Therefore, heat headlines do not appear likely at this time
across the Mid-South, but temperatures will still be seasonably
warm and uncomfortable through the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

TSRA over northwest MS will continue to push south through mid-
evening, eventually decreasing in coverage and intensity. Around
MEM, the lower atmosphere has stabilized and should remain free of
rain overnight. To the east, isolated but persistent TSRA north
and east of TUP should gradually diminish through 02Z or so, as
the lower atmosphere stabilizes.

None of the short term guidance suggests fog overnight. But given
recent heavy rainfall, clearing skies and calm winds, at least
TEMPO for limited visibility appears warranted at MKL. Winds at
MEM winds should remain sufficient to limit radiation fog
concerns overnight.

PWB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

No fire weather concerns this period as light 20ft winds and MinRH
values around 50 percent persist for at least the next 7 days.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...PWB