372
FXUS64 KMEG 061714
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1214 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect this evening through 8:00 PM.
  Heat indices ranging from 100 to 110, and actual high
  temperatures ranging from 98 to 104 are expected. Also, a weak
  frontal boundary will serve as a focus for a few thunderstorms
  over northern Mississippi this afternoon.

- Tomorrow through Wednesday, lower humidity behind the front and
  high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s will give us a brief
  break from the recent heat.

- A cold front will bring slight chances of rain late Thursday
  into Friday. Temperatures will moderate a bit, but remain well
  above normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, mainly
along and south of a cold front in north Mississippi and east-
central Arkansas. A very moist and strongly unstable air mass is
in place across the region, featuring PW values over 2 inches and
SBCAPE over 3,000 J/kg. CIN is weakening as temperatures warm,
and most of the area should reach convective temperatures around
97 degrees by 1 PM. DCAPE values from 1,200-1,400 J/kg will make
strong downdrafts very likely this afternoon and evening, with
damaging winds being the primary threat.

The aforementioned cold front is currently moving southwestward
across the Mid-South. This abnormal motion is the result of high
pressure over the Great Lakes and a deep trough along the East
Coast, resulting in northerly flow across the Ohio and Middle to
Lower Mississippi River valleys. The air mass behind the front is
highly modified but continental in nature, so it will not result
in much of a temperature change as it passes. However, a wind
shift and slightly lower relative humidity may be noticeable
across much of the region late this afternoon and especially
tomorrow. The lower dew points and relative humidity should keep
heat indices below advisory criteria (above 105 degrees) on
Monday despite afternoon highs in the mid-to-upper 90s across
most of the area. The coolest high temperatures tomorrow are
expected near the Tennessee River, where areas around Camden and
Paris should top out near 91 degrees.

A ridge currently over the Plains will rapidly expand across the
central and lower Mississippi River Valley late tomorrow into
Tuesday. As a result, temperatures will rebound. Additionally,
southeasterly winds will return to the region, leading to
increasing relative humidity. Another round of Heat Advisories
will likely be needed, initially in the Delta portions of east-
central Arkansas and northwest Mississippi on Tuesday, expanding
across much of the region on Wednesday.

The highest chance of widespread rainfall seen in quite a while
is expected to return to the Mid-South on Thursday. A ridge
across the southern Plains and southeastern U.S. will flatten out
late Tuesday through Wednesday. Guidance is in fairly good
agreement that a cold front associated with a deep low tracking
across eastern Canada will approach the Mid-South on Thursday.
Details regarding rainfall amounts and potential for strong to
severe storms will come into better focus over the next couple of
days, but overall expect slightly cooler temperatures and a fair
chance of precipitation Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

A slow moving frontal boundary will increase storm potential this
afternoon near TUP. Activity should wane after sunset with
northerly winds settling over the region. Outside of thunderstorm
activity, conditions will be VFR.

ANS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Conditions behind a weak cold front Sunday will result in a drier
and slightly cooler airmass.   Drier air will linger across the
Mid-South through midweek, but trend slightly higher each day. No
Fire Weather concerns are anticipated.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-018-026>028-
     035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TNZ001>004-019>022-
     048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...ANS